David D. Selover

Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination

Abstract The application of new techniques in testing for cointegration indicate the inappropriate- ness of the pure monetary model to explain movements in the nominal exchange rate. In general the fundamental variables are found to be integrated of different orders and there is a lack of cointegration between the exchange rate variables in the monetary model and relative prices. Estimation of other dynamic models are found to give rise to parameter estimates which do not support the monetary model. The results are broadly consistent across five countries. These results imply that it is not worthwhile to forecast from the monetary model and its main variants.

Business cycle transmission and interdependence between Japan and Australia

Abstract This paper investigates business cycle transmission and interdependence between Australia and Japan over the period 1961.1–1994.4. Vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models were constructed utilizing GDP/GNPs, producer prices, interest rates and money supplies. The model is tested for cointegration. Two cointegrating vectors are found, and a vector error correction (VEC) model is estimated. The coefficients and the F-tests of the VEC are used to measure the effect of one economy upon the other. Impulse responses from a VAR are examined for evidence of business cycle transmission, and recursive least squares estimates are used to check for structural change in the relationship. Figures are used to graphically demonstrate these relationships and have been collected in an appendix, which can be found at the end of the text. While the two countries engage in a close trading relationship, the two economies are found to be only somewhat interdependent in macroeconometric terms. Japan is found to transmit some of its business cycle fluctuations to Australia, but there is little reverse transmission.

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union

This study investigates the economic interdependence between Turkey and the European Union (EU). The main questions addressed are (i) Do Turkish and European business cycles move together? and (ii) Are European business cycles transmitted to Turkey? This investigation is important as Turkey seeks to become a full member of the EU. Trade flows, graphs, correlations, and a principal-components analysis are used to identify possible macroeconomic interdependence and transmissions. A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model is estimated to determine the effects of European economic fluctuations on the Turkish economy. The SVAR includes GDP, consumer prices, money supplies, interest rates, and the exchange rate for Turkey and Germany. The investigation finds that Turkeys economy is only modestly influenced by European business cycles and is largely determined by domestic economic and political developments and various regional conflicts. The findings of this study have implications for Turkeys increasing economic integration into the EU.

Business cycle transmission between the United States and Japan: A vector error correction approach

Abstract This study investigates the transmission of business cycle fluctuations between the United States (US) and Japan. Testing for the existence of business cycle transmission between the US and Japan involves the formulation of a vector error correction model which includes industrial production, prices, interest rates and the exchange rate for both countries. The model verifies the short-term links between the US and Japan while controlling for global oil prices. The transmission between the two economies is relatively modest. Thus the US does not ‘drive’ the Japanese economy, rather it transmits shocks which partially synchronize the two economies, perhaps through the ‘mode-lock’ phenomenon.

Chinese State-Owned Enterprises: Are They Inefficient?

AbstractUsing a panel data set of 200,000+ Chinese firms constructed by merging the Chinese census of manufacturing firms for 2000–2005, we compare the performance of Chinese state-owned enterprise...

Patterns of Economic Interdependence in Latin America

This study investigates business cycle synchronization and transmission patterns among the major Latin American countries and their linkages with the United States and Europe. Correlations, principal components, trade patterns, vector autoregressions, and impulse responses are used to discern the business cycle transmission patterns. There is moderate evidence of a unique Latin American business cycle and of business cycle transmission among the Latin American economies. Most transmission linkages come from outside Latin America. The European business cycle has a slightly stronger influence upon most Latin American economies than the influence of the US business cycle. Brazil is clearly the most influential Latin American economy in terms of business cycle transmission.

The cultural dividend: a hidden source of economic growth in emerging countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop the theoretical linkage between culture and economic growth and empirically test the relationship by measuring culture and how it affects labor productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a cross-section study of developing countries and regresses economic productivity growth on a set of control variables and cultural factors. Findings It is found that three cultural factors, economic attitudes, political attitudes, and attitudes towards the family, affect economic productivity growth. Originality/value Many economists ignore culture as a factor in economic growth, either because they discount the value of culture or because they have no simple way to quantify culture, resulting in the role of culture being under-researched. The study is the first to extensively examine the role of culture in productivity growth using large-scale data sources. The authors show that culture plays an important role in productivity gains across countries, contributing to the study of the effects of culture on economic development, and that culture can be empirically measured and linked to an activity that directly affects the economic growth – labor productivity.

How Do the Trans‐Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach

This paper studies how the Trans-Pacific region affects the US economy in terms of business cycle transmission. We use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries. We find that a positive output shock in the entire Trans-Pacific region has positive effects on the majority of US manufacturing sectors. We also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the Trans-Pacific region have a large impact on the overall US economy. Three of the five sectors displayed strong same-sector responses relative to the overall response, suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks. Our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the Trans-Pacific region.