Takeshi Yagihashi

Are DSGE Approximating Models Invariant to Shifts in Policy

Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimates of structural parameters in DSGE approximating models are invariant to shifts in policy only when the model is correctly specified. Since DSGE models are approximations, strict invariance is unattainable. Despite that, DSGE models might be useful for policy analysis provided that structural parameters are approximately invariant. We discuss this issue in the context of an example involving a pair of new Keynesian DSGE models in which the central banks policy model includes a misspecified Phillips curve. In our example, the approximating model is a useful guide for policy despite the failure of strict invariance.

Health Care Use, Out-of-Pocket Expenditure, and Macroeconomic Conditions during the Great Recession

Abstract We study how macroeconomic conditions during the Great Recession affected health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures of American households. We use two data sources: the Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP); each has its own advantages. The CE contains quarterly frequency variables, and the SIPP provides panel data at the individual level. Consistent evidence across the two datasets shows that utilization of routine medical care was counter-cyclical, whereas hospital care was pro-cyclical during the Great Recession. When we examine the pre-recession period, the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health care use was either non-existent or in opposite directions, suggesting that this relationship may have been unique to the Great Recession.

Goods-Time Elasticity of Substitution in Health Production.

We examine how inputs for health production, in particular, medical care and health-enhancing time, are combined to improve health. The estimated elasticity of substitution from a constant elasticity of substitution production function is significantly less than one for the working-age population, rejecting the unit elasticity of substitution used in previous studies. Copyright

How Do the Trans‐Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach

This paper studies how the Trans-Pacific region affects the US economy in terms of business cycle transmission. We use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries. We find that a positive output shock in the entire Trans-Pacific region has positive effects on the majority of US manufacturing sectors. We also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the Trans-Pacific region have a large impact on the overall US economy. Three of the five sectors displayed strong same-sector responses relative to the overall response, suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks. Our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the Trans-Pacific region.

Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution with Leisure Margin

This paper investigates whether leisure time definitions matter in the estimation of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption (IES) by using a utility specification that allows interaction between consumption and leisure time. We find that the IES estimated using a narrowly defined leisure measure that excludes quasi-leisure activities is larger than that estimated using nonmarket time. The discrepancy is largely driven by the substitution of consumption and several leisure components over the lifecycle. This finding is robust in alternative specifications and holds well for subsamples of higher socioeconomic status. Our results demonstrate the inseparable nature of consumption and time allocation.

Health Care Inflation and It's Implications for Monetary Policy

Motivated by recent findings on the cyclical movement of both health and health spending, we construct a general equilibrium model that distinguishes health care demand from the demand for other goods. Using this model, we are able to generate inflation dynamics and cyclicality of health that match the US data. When the model is subjected to an expansionary monetary policy shock, it yields different output and inflation responses compared with a two-sector model with homogeneous demand. We show that the trade-off between leisure and health spending plays an important role in model dynamics. The model further predicts different degrees of inflation stabilization across sectors when a shift in the monetary policy occurs . ( JEL E52, E31, E32, I10)

Intertemporal elasticity of substitution and risk aversion: are they related empirically?

This article examines the relationship between two types of preference: preference of intertemporal choices and preference towards risk. In the simplest form of the constant relative risk aversion utility function, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) and risk aversion have an inverse relationship. However, there is no empirical evidence that suggests this inverse relationship holds. We examine the relationship between risk aversion and IES using household consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey during 1996–2010. Multiple risk domains are selected to represent risk preference, and for each domain, we consider some households to be more risk averse than others. We separately estimate IES for the more risk-averse and less risk-averse households. We find that the IES estimates are generally smaller for the more risk-averse households than for the less risk-averse households and that the difference is statistically significant in the majority of the financial domains. This finding supports the inverse relationship between the two parameters, although considerable heterogeneity is found across domains.