David de la Paz

Emission inventories and modeling requirements for the development of air quality plans. Application to Madrid (Spain).

Modeling is an essential tool for the development of atmospheric emission abatement measures and air quality plans. Most often these plans are related to urban environments with high emission density and population exposure. However, air quality modeling in urban areas is a rather challenging task. As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large urban areas across Europe, particularly for NO₂. This also implies that emission inventories must satisfy a number of conditions such as consistency across the spatial scales involved in the analysis, consistency with the emission inventories used for regulatory purposes and versatility to match the requirements of different air quality and emission projection models. This study reports the modeling activities carried out in Madrid (Spain) highlighting the atmospheric emission inventory development and preparation as an illustrative example of the combination of models and data needed to develop a consistent air quality plan at urban level. These included a series of source apportionment studies to define contributions from the international, national, regional and local sources in order to understand to what extent local authorities can enforce meaningful abatement measures. Moreover, source apportionment studies were conducted in order to define contributions from different sectors and to understand the maximum feasible air quality improvement that can be achieved by reducing emissions from those sectors, thus targeting emission reduction policies to the most relevant activities. Finally, an emission scenario reflecting the effect of such policies was developed and the associated air quality was modeled.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain.

BACKGROUND In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. METHODS To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. RESULTS Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. CONCLUSIONS Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and Holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and POD(Y) (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m(-2) s(-1)). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements.

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain.

Microscale traffic simulation and emission estimation in a heavily trafficked roundabout in Madrid (Spain).

This paper presents the evaluation of emissions from vehicle operations in a domain of 300m×300m covering a complex urban roundabout with high traffic density in Madrid. Micro-level simulation was successfully applied to estimate the emissions on a scale of meters. Two programs were used: i) VISSIM to simulate the traffic on the square and to compute velocity-time profiles; and ii) VERSIT+micro through ENVIVER that uses VISSIM outputs to compute the related emissions at vehicle level. Data collection was achieved by a measurement campaign obtaining empirical data of vehicle flows and traffic intensities. Twelve simulations of different traffic situations (scenarios) were conducted, representing different hours from several days in a week and the corresponding NOX and PM10 emissions were estimated. The results show a general reduction on average speeds for higher intensities due to braking-acceleration patterns that contribute to increase the average emission factor and, therefore, the total emissions in the domain, especially on weekdays. The emissions are clearly related to traffic volume, although maximum emission scenario does not correspond to the highest traffic intensity due to congestion and variations in fleet composition throughout the day. These results evidence the potential that local measures aimed at alleviating congestion may have in urban areas to reduce emissions. In general, scenario-averaged emission factors estimated with the VISSIM-VERSIT+micro modelling system fitted well those from the average-speed model COPERT, used as a preliminary validation of the results. The largest deviations between these two models occur in those scenarios with more congestion. The design and resolution of the microscale modelling system allow to reflect the impact of actual traffic conditions on driving patterns and related emissions, making it useful for the design of mitigation measures for specific traffic hot-spots.

Implementation of road dust resuspension in air quality simulations of particulate matter in Madrid (Spain)

An evaluation of the concentration levels of Particulate Matter (PM) was carried out in Madrid (Spain) by introducing the emissions from road dust resuspension. Road dust resuspension emission factors (EF) for different types of vehicles were calculated from EPA-AP42, a global resuspension factor of 0.097 g veh-1 km-1 as described in Amato et al. (2010) and a rain-dependent correction factor. With these resuspension EFs, a simulation at street canyon level was performed with the OSPM model without rainfall. Subsequently, a simulation using the CMAQ model was implemented adding resuspension emissions affected by the rain. These data were compared with monitored data obtained from air quality stations. OSPM model simulations with resuspension EFs but without the effect of rainfall improve the PM estimates in about 20 µg m-3 compared to the simulation with default EFs. Total emissions were calculated by adding the emissions estimated with resuspension EFs to the default PM emissions to be used by CMAQ. For the study in the Madrid Area, resuspension emissions are approximately of the same order of magnitude as inventoried emissions. On a monthly scale, rain effects are negligible for resuspension emissions due to the dry weather conditions of Spain. With the exception of April and May, the decrease in resuspension emissions is not greater than 3%. The predicted PM10 concentration increases up to 9 µg m-3 on annual average for each station compared to the same scenario without resuspension. However in both cases, PM10 estimates with resuspension are still underestimating observations. It should be noted that although that accounting for resuspension improves the quality of model predictions, other PM sources (e.g. Saharan dust) were not considered in this study.

Unexpected increase in the oxidation capacity of the urban atmosphere of Madrid, Spain

Atmospheric oxidants such as ozone (O3), hydroxyl and nitrate radicals (OH and NO3) determine the ability of the urban atmosphere to process organic and inorganic pollutants, which have an impact on air quality, environmental health and climate. Madrid city has experienced an increase of 30–40% in ambient air O3 levels, along with a decrease of 20–40% in NO2, from 2007 to 2014. Using air pollution observations and a high-resolution air quality model, we find a large concentration increase of up to 70% and 90% in OH and NO3, respectively, in downtown Madrid (domain-wide average increase of 10% and 32% for OH and NO3, respectively). The results also show an 11% reduction in the nitric acid concentrations, leading to a remarkable denoxification of this urban atmosphere with implications for lower PM2.5 levels and nitrogen input into ecosystems. This study suggests that projected worldwide NOx emission reductions, following air quality standards, will lead to important changes in the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere in and around large cities.

Application of a short term air quality action plan in Madrid (Spain) under a high-pollution episode - Part II: Assessment from multi-scale modelling

Air pollution continues to be one of the main issues in urban areas. In addition to air quality plans and emission abatement policies, additional measures for high pollution episodes are needed to avoid exceedances of hourly limit values under unfavourable meteorological conditions such as the Madrids short-term action NO2 protocol. In December 2016 there was a strong atmospheric stability episode that turned out in generalized high NO2 levels, causing the stage 3 of the NO2 protocol to be triggered for the first time in Madrid (29th December). In addition to other traffic-related measures, this involves access restrictions to the city centre (50% to private cars). We simulated the episode with and without measures under a multi-scale modelling approach. A 1 km2 resolution modelling system based on WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ was applied to assess city-wide effects while the Star-CCM+ (RANS CFD model) was used to investigate the effect at street level in a microscale domain in the city centre, focusing on Gran Vía Avenue. Changes in road traffic were simulated with the mesoscale VISUM model, incorporating real flux measurements during those days. The corresponding simulations suggest that the application of the protocol during this particular episode may have prevented concentrations to increase by 24 μg·m-3 (14% respect to the hypothetical no action scenario) downtown although it may have cause NO2 to slightly increase in the city outskirts due to traffic redistribution. Speed limitation and parking restrictions alone (stages 1 and 2 respectively) have a very limited effect. The microscale simulation provides consistent results but shows an important variability at street level, with reduction above 100 μg·m-3 in some spots inside Gran Vía. Although further research is needed, these results point out the need to implement short-term action plans and to apply a consistent multi-scale modelling assessment to optimize urban air quality abatement strategies.

Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from different vehicles covering the entire life cycle

The aim of this paper is to compare the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from different types of vehicles, including electric and hybrid, during their entire life cycle. To estimate these emissions, a tool developed by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM), GlobalTRANS, was used. This tool integrates not only Tankto-Wheel emissions (exhaust), but also Well-to-Tank, vehicle manufacturing and disposal emissions. In this study a typical Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) was compared with traditional internal combustion vehicles, such as gasoline, diesel or LPG cars as well as with hybrid vehicles (electric-gasoline) for the Spanish case. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the influence of the BEV’s electric consumption on its GHG emissions. For this purpose, emissions were estimated using GlobalTRANS modifying the electric consumption of the vehicle within the range of 100–250 Wh/km, in accordance with BEV catalogue vehicles available in the Spanish market.

The influence of ocean halogen and sulfur emissions in the air quality of a coastal megacity: The case of Los Angeles

The oceans are the main source of natural halogen and sulfur compounds, which have a significant influence on the oxidizing capacity of the marine atmosphere; however, their impact on the air quality of coastal cities is currently unknown. We explore the effect of marine halogens (Cl, Br and I) and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) on the air quality of a large coastal city through a set of high-resolution (4-km) air quality simulations for the urban area of Los Angeles, US, using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ model). The results indicate that marine halogen emissions decrease ozone and nitrogen dioxide levels up to 5ppbv and 2.5ppbv, respectively, in the city of Los Angeles. Previous studies suggested that the inclusion of chlorine in air quality models leads to the generation of ozone in urban areas through photolysis of nitryl chloride (ClNO2). However, we find that when considering the chemistry of Cl, Br and I together the net effect is a reduction of surface ozone concentrations. Furthermore, combined ocean emissions of halogens and DMS cause substantial changes in the levels of key urban atmospheric oxidants such as OH, HO2 and NO3, and in the composition and mass of fine particles. Although the levels of ozone, NO3 and HOx are reduced, we find a 10% increase in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mean concentration, attributed to the increase in aerosol acidity and sulfate aerosol formation when combining DMS and bromine. Therefore, this new pathway for enhanced SOA formation may potentially help with current model under predictions of urban SOA. Although further observations and research are needed to establish these preliminary conclusions, this first city-scale investigation suggests that the inclusion of oceanic halogens and DMS in air quality models may improve regional air quality predictions over coastal cities around the world.