Julio Lumbreras

Health impact assessment of a reduction in ambient PM2.5 levels in Spain

BACKGROUND Health effects linked to exposure to high air pollutant levels have been described in depth, and many recent epidemiologic studies have also consistently reported positive associations between exposure to air pollutants at low concentrations (particularly PM(2.5)) and adverse health outcomes. OBJECTIVE To estimate the number of avoidable deaths associated with reducing PM(2.5) levels in Spain. MATERIALS AND METHODS For exposure assessment, we used the US Environmental Protection Agencys Community Multiscale Air Quality model to simulate air pollution levels with a spatial resolution of 18×18 km(2). Two different scenarios were compared, namely, a baseline 2004 scenario based on Spains National Emissions Inventory and a projected 2011 scenario in which a reduction in PM(2.5) was estimated on the basis of the benefits that might be attained if specific air quality policies were implemented. Using an 18×18 km(2) grid, air pollution data were estimated for the entire Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands, Ceuta and Melilla. For these strata, crude all-cause mortality rates (ICD-10: A00-Y98) were then calculated for the over-30 and 25-74 age groups, taking into account the 2004 population figures corresponding to these same age groups, selected in accordance with the concentration-response functions (Pope CA 3rd, Burnett RT, Thun MJ, Calle EE, Krewski D, Ito K et al. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 2002; 287:1132-41; Laden F, Schwartz J, Speizer FE, Dockery DW. Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality: extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities study. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2006; 173:667-72.). Health impacts were assessed using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). RESULTS Air quality improvement was defined as an average annual reduction of 0.7 μg/m(3) in PM(2.5) levels. Using long-term health impact assessment analysis, we estimated that 1720 (673-2760) all-cause deaths (6 per 100,000 population) in the over-30 age group and 1450 (780-2108) all-cause deaths (5 per 100,000 population) in the 25-74 age group could be prevented annually. CONCLUSIONS The results showed the potential benefits in general mortality which could be expected if pollution control policies were successfully implemented by 2011. A specifically adapted BenMAP could be used as a tool for estimating health impacts associated with changes in air pollution in Spain.

Development of a high-resolution emission inventory for Spain using the SMOKE modelling system: A case study for the years 2000 and 2010

Emission preparation is a critical stage in air quality modelling. The generation of input information from regulatory emission inventories compatible with the requirements of eulerian chemical-transport models needs a computationally efficient, reliable, and flexible emissions data processing system. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel System (SMOKE) was developed in the United States and redesigned by the US Environmental Protection Agency to support air quality modelling activities in the framework of the USEPA Models-3 system. In this contribution the adaptation of the SMOKE system to European conditions is discussed. The system has been applied to the Iberian Peninsula and the Madrid Region (Spain) to process Spains official emission inventories and projections for the years 2000 and 2010. This software tool has been found useful to generate emission input information for the CMAQ model as well as providing a valuable platform for emission scenario analysis. The model has been proved flexible enough to accommodate and process emissions based on the EMEP/CORINAIR methodology, although the lack of meaningful ancillary information may hinder its application outside the US. This study has established a practical methodology for the adaptation of the SMOKE system to Spain and potentially to any other European country.

Emission inventories and modeling requirements for the development of air quality plans. Application to Madrid (Spain).

Modeling is an essential tool for the development of atmospheric emission abatement measures and air quality plans. Most often these plans are related to urban environments with high emission density and population exposure. However, air quality modeling in urban areas is a rather challenging task. As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large urban areas across Europe, particularly for NO₂. This also implies that emission inventories must satisfy a number of conditions such as consistency across the spatial scales involved in the analysis, consistency with the emission inventories used for regulatory purposes and versatility to match the requirements of different air quality and emission projection models. This study reports the modeling activities carried out in Madrid (Spain) highlighting the atmospheric emission inventory development and preparation as an illustrative example of the combination of models and data needed to develop a consistent air quality plan at urban level. These included a series of source apportionment studies to define contributions from the international, national, regional and local sources in order to understand to what extent local authorities can enforce meaningful abatement measures. Moreover, source apportionment studies were conducted in order to define contributions from different sectors and to understand the maximum feasible air quality improvement that can be achieved by reducing emissions from those sectors, thus targeting emission reduction policies to the most relevant activities. Finally, an emission scenario reflecting the effect of such policies was developed and the associated air quality was modeled.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain.

BACKGROUND In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. METHODS To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16×16km(2). In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. RESULTS Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1µg/m(3) by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. CONCLUSIONS Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline in fine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Evaluation of a CFD-based approach to estimate pollutant distribution within a real urban canopy by means of passive samplers.

The distribution of pollutants is spatially heterogeneous within urban streets making difficult to build a realistic concentration map. In this paper, a methodology based on computational fluid dynamic modeling with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes approach is used to compute maps of concentration for a period of several weeks. The methodology is evaluated by comparing simulation results against experimental data from two different campaigns where a large number of passive samplers deployed in an area with heavy vehicular traffic in Madrid (Spain). The evaluation shows that the methodology is able to reproduce the general pattern of several-week averaged pollutant distribution in an urban area with heavy vehicular traffic, resolving the spatial variability up to a resolution of 1-2m. In addition, the model results fit satisfactorily the time evolution of the pollutant concentration measured at an air quality station deployed in the studied area. However, problems were detected close to zones with complex emissions patterns (tunnels, street forks, etc.), where the model compared poorly against passive sampler measurements. A preliminary assessment of the uncertainties induced in the numerical methodology due to consider NO2 as non-reactive pollutant under winter conditions indicates that it would be an acceptable approach for this particular case study. Overall, our analysis contributes to raise the confidence in that approached similar to the one presented in this study can be adopted for dealing with several aspects of the air quality management such as air quality assessment, optimization of the location of measurement stations, and the evaluation of air pollution reduction strategies.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

Abstract This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO 2 , O 3 , SO 2 , NH 3 , PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and Holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and POD(Y) (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m(-2) s(-1)). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

An integrated assessment of two decades of air pollution policy making in Spain: Impacts, costs and improvements.

This paper analyses the effects of policy making for air pollution abatement in Spain between 2000 and 2020 under an integrated assessment approach with the AERIS model for number of pollutants (NOx/NO2, PM10/PM2.5, O3, SO2, NH3 and VOC). The analysis of the effects of air pollution focused on different aspects: compliance with the European limit values of Directive 2008/50/EC for NO2 and PM10 for the Spanish air quality management areas; the evaluation of impacts caused by the deposition of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen on ecosystems; the exceedance of critical levels of NO2 and SO2 in forest areas; the analysis of O3-induced crop damage for grapes, maize, potato, rice, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat; health impacts caused by human exposure to O3 and PM2.5; and costs on society due to crop losses (O3), disability-related absence of work staff and damage to buildings and public property due to soot-related soiling (PM2.5). In general, air quality policy making has delivered improvements in air quality levels throughout Spain and has mitigated the severity of the impacts on ecosystems, health and vegetation in 2020 as target year. The findings of this work constitute an appropriate diagnosis for identifying improvement potentials for further mitigation for policy makers and stakeholders in Spain.

Microscale traffic simulation and emission estimation in a heavily trafficked roundabout in Madrid (Spain).

This paper presents the evaluation of emissions from vehicle operations in a domain of 300m×300m covering a complex urban roundabout with high traffic density in Madrid. Micro-level simulation was successfully applied to estimate the emissions on a scale of meters. Two programs were used: i) VISSIM to simulate the traffic on the square and to compute velocity-time profiles; and ii) VERSIT+micro through ENVIVER that uses VISSIM outputs to compute the related emissions at vehicle level. Data collection was achieved by a measurement campaign obtaining empirical data of vehicle flows and traffic intensities. Twelve simulations of different traffic situations (scenarios) were conducted, representing different hours from several days in a week and the corresponding NOX and PM10 emissions were estimated. The results show a general reduction on average speeds for higher intensities due to braking-acceleration patterns that contribute to increase the average emission factor and, therefore, the total emissions in the domain, especially on weekdays. The emissions are clearly related to traffic volume, although maximum emission scenario does not correspond to the highest traffic intensity due to congestion and variations in fleet composition throughout the day. These results evidence the potential that local measures aimed at alleviating congestion may have in urban areas to reduce emissions. In general, scenario-averaged emission factors estimated with the VISSIM-VERSIT+micro modelling system fitted well those from the average-speed model COPERT, used as a preliminary validation of the results. The largest deviations between these two models occur in those scenarios with more congestion. The design and resolution of the microscale modelling system allow to reflect the impact of actual traffic conditions on driving patterns and related emissions, making it useful for the design of mitigation measures for specific traffic hot-spots.

Implementation of road dust resuspension in air quality simulations of particulate matter in Madrid (Spain)

An evaluation of the concentration levels of Particulate Matter (PM) was carried out in Madrid (Spain) by introducing the emissions from road dust resuspension. Road dust resuspension emission factors (EF) for different types of vehicles were calculated from EPA-AP42, a global resuspension factor of 0.097 g veh-1 km-1 as described in Amato et al. (2010) and a rain-dependent correction factor. With these resuspension EFs, a simulation at street canyon level was performed with the OSPM model without rainfall. Subsequently, a simulation using the CMAQ model was implemented adding resuspension emissions affected by the rain. These data were compared with monitored data obtained from air quality stations. OSPM model simulations with resuspension EFs but without the effect of rainfall improve the PM estimates in about 20 µg m-3 compared to the simulation with default EFs. Total emissions were calculated by adding the emissions estimated with resuspension EFs to the default PM emissions to be used by CMAQ. For the study in the Madrid Area, resuspension emissions are approximately of the same order of magnitude as inventoried emissions. On a monthly scale, rain effects are negligible for resuspension emissions due to the dry weather conditions of Spain. With the exception of April and May, the decrease in resuspension emissions is not greater than 3%. The predicted PM10 concentration increases up to 9 µg m-3 on annual average for each station compared to the same scenario without resuspension. However in both cases, PM10 estimates with resuspension are still underestimating observations. It should be noted that although that accounting for resuspension improves the quality of model predictions, other PM sources (e.g. Saharan dust) were not considered in this study.