Till Bärnighausen

Human resources and health outcomes: cross-country econometric study

BACKGROUND Only a few studies have investigated the link between human resources for health and health outcomes, and they arrive at different conclusions. We tested the strength and significance of density of human resources for health with improved methods and a new WHO dataset. METHODS We did cross-country multiple regression analyses with maternal mortality rate, infant mortality rate, and under-five mortality rate as dependent variables. Aggregate density of human resources for health was an independent variable in one set of regressions; doctor and nurse densities separately were used in another set. We controlled for the effects of income, female adult literacy, and absolute income poverty. FINDINGS Density of human resources for health is significant in accounting for maternal mortality rate, infant mortality rate, and under-five mortality rate (with elasticities ranging from -0.474 to -0.212, all p values < or = 0.0036). The elasticities of the three mortality rates with respect to doctor density ranged from -0.386 to -0.174 (all p values < or = 0.0029). Nurse density was not associated except in the maternal mortality rate regression without income poverty (p=0.0443). INTERPRETATION In addition to other determinants, the density of human resources for health is important in accounting for the variation in rates of maternal mortality, infant mortality, and under-five mortality across countries. The effect of this density in reducing maternal mortality is greater than in reducing child mortality, possibly because qualified medical personnel can better address the illnesses that put mothers at risk. Investment in human resources for health must be considered as part of a strategy to achieve the Millennium Development Goals of improving maternal health and reducing child mortality.

Increases in Adult Life Expectancy in Rural South Africa: Valuing the Scale-Up of HIV Treatment

Cost-Benefit of ART In the battle to control HIV, mass antiretroviral treatment (ART) costs

Cohort Profile: Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS) and population-based HIV survey

500 to

Interventions to increase antiretroviral adherence in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of evaluation studies

900 per person per year. Bor et al. (p. 961) calculated the impact of intensifying ART on the life expectancy of people living in rural KwaZulu Natal. The dates of death were collected from a population of about 100,000 people during 2000–2011: Four years before and 8 years after the scaling up of ART. Life expectancy of adults increased by more than 11 years after ART was expanded, and the economic value of the lifetimes gained were calculated to far exceed the cost of treatment. Tanser et al. (p. 966) followed nearly 17,000 HIV-uninfected individuals in KwaZulu-Natal over an 8-year period. Holding other HIV risk factors constant, individual HIV acquisition risk declined significantly with increasing ART coverage of HIV-infected people. Adult life expectancy has increased by 11 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal since the 2004 public-sector scale-up of HIV treatment. The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public-sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years—an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for the investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors.

The socioeconomic determinants of HIV incidence: evidence from a longitudinal, population-based study in rural South Africa

The health and demography of the South African population has been undergoing substantial changes as a result of the rapidly progressing HIV epidemic. Researchers at the University of KwaZulu-Natal and the South African Medical Research Council established The Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies in 1997 funded by a large core grant from The Wellcome Trust, UK. Given the urgent need for high quality longitudinal data with which to monitor these changes, and with which to evaluate interventions to mitigate impact, a demographic surveillance system (DSS) was established in a rural South African population facing a rapid and severe HIV epidemic. 1 The DSS, referred to as the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), started in 2000. In 2003, population-based HIV testing (also funded by the Wellcome Trust, UK) was started in ACDIS through annual surveys. In this article, we seek to describe the most salient features of ACDIS and the population-based HIV cohort and briefly present some of the most important results to date.

Health workers and vaccination coverage in developing countries: an econometric analysis

The success of potent antiretroviral treatment for HIV infection is primarily determined by adherence. We systematically review the evidence of effectiveness of interventions to increase adherence to antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa. We identified 27 relevant reports from 26 studies of behavioural, cognitive, biological, structural, and combination interventions done between 2003 and 2010. Despite study diversity and limitations, evidence suggests that treatment supporters, directly observed therapy, mobile-phone text messages, diary cards, and food rations can effectively increase adherence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, some interventions are unlikely to have large or lasting effects, and others are effective only in specific settings. These findings emphasise the need for more research, particularly for randomised controlled trials, to examine the effect of context and specific features of intervention content on effectiveness. Future work should assess intervention targeting and selection of interventions based on behavioural theories relevant to sub-Saharan Africa.

Financial incentives for return of service in underserved areas: a systematic review

Background:Knowledge of the effect of socioeconomic status on HIV infection in Africa stems largely from cross-sectional studies. Cross-sectional studies suffer from two important limitations: two-way causality between socioeconomic status and HIV serostatus and simultaneous effects of socioeconomic status on HIV incidence and HIV-positive survival time. Both problems are avoided in longitudinal cohort studies. Methods:We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance and a linked demographic surveillance in a poor rural community in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to investigate the effect of three measures of socioeconomic status on HIV incidence: educational attainment, household wealth categories (based on a ranking of households on an assets index scale) and per capita household expenditure. Our sample comprised of 3325 individuals who tested HIV-negative at baseline and either HIV-negative or -positive on a second test (on average 1.3 years later). Results:In multivariable survival analysis, one additional year of education reduced the hazard of acquiring HIV by 7% (P = 0.017) net of sex, age, wealth, household expenditure, rural vs. urban/periurban residence, migration status and partnership status. Holding other factors equal, members of households that fell into the middle 40% of relative wealth had a 72% higher hazard of HIV acquisition than members of the 40% poorest households (P = 0.012). Per capita household expenditure did not significantly affect HIV incidence (P = 0.669). Conclusion:Although poverty reduction is important for obvious reasons, it may not be as effective as anticipated in reducing the spread of HIV in rural South Africa. In contrast, our results suggest that increasing educational attainment in the general population may lower HIV incidence.

Global Burden of Hypertension and Systolic Blood Pressure of at Least 110 to 115 mm Hg, 1990-2015

BACKGROUND Vaccine-preventable diseases cause more than 1 million deaths among children in developing countries every year. Although health workers are needed to do vaccinations, the role of human resources for health as a determinant of vaccination coverage at the population level has not been investigated. Our aim was to test whether health worker density was positively associated with childhood vaccination coverage in developing countries. METHODS We did cross-country multiple regression analyses with coverage of three vaccinations--measles-containing vaccine (MCV); diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP3); and poliomyelitis (polio3)--as dependent variables. Aggregate health worker density was an independent variable in one set of regressions; doctor and nurse densities were used separately in another set. We controlled for national income per person, female adult literacy, and land area. FINDINGS Health worker density was significantly associated with coverage of all three vaccinations (MCV p=0.0024; DTP3 p=0.0004; polio3 p=0.0008). However, when the effects of doctors and nurses were assessed separately, we found that nurse density was significantly associated with coverage of all three vaccinations (MCV p=0.0097; DTP3 p=0.0083; polio3 p=0.0089), but doctor density was not (MCV p=0.7953; DTP3 p=0.7971; polio3 p=0.7885). Female adult literacy was positively associated, and land area negatively associated, with vaccination coverage. National income per person had no effect on coverage. INTERPRETATION A higher density of health workers (nurses) increases the availability of vaccination services over time and space, making it more likely that children will be vaccinated. After controlling for other determinants, the level of income does not contribute to improved immunisation coverage. Health workers can be a major constraining factor on vaccination coverage in developing countries.

Adult mortality and antiretroviral treatment roll-out in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BackgroundIn many geographic regions, both in developing and in developed countries, the number of health workers is insufficient to achieve population health goals. Financial incentives for return of service are intended to alleviate health worker shortages: A (future) health worker enters into a contract to work for a number of years in an underserved area in exchange for a financial pay-off.MethodsWe carried out systematic literature searches of PubMed, the Excerpta Medica database, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the National Health Services Economic Evaluation Database for studies evaluating outcomes of financial-incentive programs published up to February 2009. To identify articles for review, we combined three search themes (health workers or students, underserved areas, and financial incentives). In the initial search, we identified 10,495 unique articles, 10,302 of which were excluded based on their titles or abstracts. We conducted full-text reviews of the remaining 193 articles and of 26 additional articles identified in reference lists or by colleagues. Forty-three articles were included in the final review. We extracted from these articles information on the financial-incentive programs (name, location, period of operation, objectives, target groups, definition of underserved area, financial incentives and obligation) and information on the individual studies (authors, publication dates, types of study outcomes, study design, sample criteria and sample size, data sources, outcome measures and study findings, conclusions, and methodological limitations). We reviewed program results (descriptions of recruitment, retention, and participant satisfaction), program effects (effectiveness in influencing health workers to provide care, to remain, and to be satisfied with work and personal life in underserved areas), and program impacts (effectiveness in influencing health systems and health outcomes).ResultsOf the 43 reviewed studies 34 investigated financial-incentive programs in the US. The remaining studies evaluated programs in Japan (five studies), Canada (two), New Zealand (one) and South Africa (one). The programs started between 1930 and 1998. We identified five different types of programs (service-requiring scholarships, educational loans with service requirements, service-option educational loans, loan repayment programs, and direct financial incentives). Financial incentives to serve for one year in an underserved area ranged from year-2000 United States dollars 1,358 to 28,470. All reviewed studies were observational. The random-effects estimate of the pooled proportion of all eligible program participants who had either fulfilled their obligation or were fulfilling it at the time of the study was 71% (95% confidence interval 60–80%). Seven studies compared retention in the same (underserved) area between program participants and non-participants. Six studies found that participants were less likely than non-participants to remain in the same area (five studies reported the difference to be statistically significant, while one study did not report a significance level); one study did not find a significant difference in retention in the same area. Thirteen studies compared provision of care or retention in any underserved area between participants and non-participants. Eleven studies found that participants were more likely to (continue to) practice in any underserved area (nine studies reported the difference to be statistically significant, while two studies did not provide the results of a significance test); two studies found that program participants were significantly less likely than non-participants to remain in any underserved area. Seven studies investigated the satisfaction of participants with their work and personal lives in underserved areas.ConclusionFinancial-incentive programs for return of service are one of the few health policy interventions intended to improve the distribution of human resources for health on which substantial evidence exists. However, the majority of studies are from the US, and only one study reports findings from a developing country, limiting generalizability. The existing studies show that financial-incentive programs have placed substantial numbers of health workers in underserved areas and that program participants are more likely than non-participants to work in underserved areas in the long run, even though they are less likely to remain at the site of original placement. As none of the existing studies can fully rule out that the observed differences between participants and non-participants are due to selection effects, the evidence to date does not allow the inference that the programs have caused increases in the supply of health workers to underserved areas.

Localized spatial clustering of HIV infections in a widely disseminated rural South African epidemic

Importance Elevated systolic blood (SBP) pressure is a leading global health risk. Quantifying the levels of SBP is important to guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015. Design A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year. Results Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). Loss of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 148 million (95% UI, 134-162 million) to 211 million (95% UI, 193-231 million), and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg. Conclusions and Relevance In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.