David E. Kingsmill

The Statistical Relationship between Upslope Flow and Rainfall in California's Coastal Mountains: Observations during CALJET

The California Landfalling Jets Experiment (CALJET) was carried out during the winter of 1997/98, in part to study orographic rainfall in California’s coastal mountains using coastal wind profilers. This observational study statistically links hourly rainfall rates observed by tipping-bucket rain gauges in California’s quasi-linear coastal mountains to the hourly averaged upslope component of the flow measured by coastal wind profilers immediately upstream. Vertical profiles of the linear correlation coefficient of upslope flow versus rain rate are calculated on a case-by-case basis, for all cases containing a low-level jet (LLJ), and for the winter season of 1997/98. These correlation coefficient profiles show a direct relationship between the magnitude of the upslope flow impacting the coast and the magnitude of the rain rate in the downstream coastal mountains. Maximum correlation coefficients are as large as 0.94 in some individual cases, 0.75 for a composite of LLJ cases, and 0.70 for the winter season. Using three locations with differing coastal terrain characteristics, it is found that the layer of upslope flow that optimally modulates orographic rainfall is near mountaintop, that is, about 1 km above mean sea level for California’s coastal ranges. This height also corresponds to the mean altitude of landfalling LLJs observed by the coastal profilers. The correlation coefficient in this layer is largest when the rain rates are used from the coastal mountain sites rather than from the coastal sites, thus further highlighting the physical connection between upslope flow and orographic rainfall in the coastal mountains. The presence of shallow, terrain-blocked flow modulates the correlation coefficient profiles below mountaintop, such that the low-level flow at the coast is poorly correlated with rain rates observed in the coastal mountains. However, cases without significant blocking retain relatively large correlation coefficient values below mountaintop. Landfalling LLJs produce the largest enhancement of upslope flow at the altitude of the LLJ, despite the existence of terrain-modified flows below mountaintop during some LLJ events. The steepest increase in rain rate for a given increase in upslope flow also occurs at jet level, as does the largest correlation coefficient of upslope flow versus rain rate. Therefore, the upslope-induced orographic rain-rate response associated with landfalling LLJs is largest (2.55 mm h 21) and statistically most robust near the altitude of those LLJs.

Observations of Precipitation Size and Fall Speed Characteristics within Coexisting Rain and Wet Snow

Abstract Ground-based measurements of particle size and fall speed distributions using a Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer are compared among samples obtained in mixed precipitation (rain and wet snow) and rain in the Oregon Cascade Mountains and in dry snow in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Coexisting rain and snow particles are distinguished using a classification method based on their size and fall speed properties. The bimodal distribution of the particles’ joint fall speed–size characteristics at air temperatures from 0.5° to 0°C suggests that wet-snow particles quickly make a transition to rain once melting has progressed sufficiently. As air temperatures increase to 1.5°C, the reduction in the number of very large aggregates with a diameter > 10 mm coincides with the appearance of rain particles larger than 6 mm. In this setting, very large raindrops appear to be the result of aggregrates melting with minimal breakup rather than formation by coalescence. In contrast to dry snow an...

Convection Initiation Associated with a Sea-Breeze Front, a Gust Front, and Their Collision

Abstract The initiation of convection associated with a sea-breeze front, a gust front, and their collision is analyzed using data collected in east-central Florida during the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification project. In conjunction with satellite, surface, and rawinsonde information, dual-Doppler radar-derived winds are used to determine the three-dimensional kinematic factors critical to storm development. The gust front, which emanated from storms on the western half of the peninsula, propagated more rapidly and was deeper than the sea-breeze front, which originated from the east coast and was characterized by a distinctly scalloped appearance. Convection associated with the sea-breeze front appeared to develop preferentially at the vertices of this scalloped pattern where there were enhanced regions of convergence and upward motion. On the gust front, a Helmholtz shearing instability produced an organized configuration of convergence and updraft maxima along its length. However, these were...

The Utility of X-Band Polarimetric Radar for Quantitative Estimates of Rainfall Parameters

Abstract The utility of X-band polarimetric radar for quantitative retrievals of rainfall parameters is analyzed using observations collected along the U.S. west coast near the mouth of the Russian River during the Hydrometeorological Testbed project conducted by NOAA’s Environmental Technology and National Severe Storms Laboratories in December 2003 through March 2004. It is demonstrated that the rain attenuation effects in measurements of reflectivity (Ze) and differential attenuation effects in measurements of differential reflectivity (ZDR) can be efficiently corrected in near–real time using differential phase shift data. A scheme for correcting gaseous attenuation effects that are important at longer ranges is introduced. The use of polarimetric rainfall estimators that utilize specific differential phase and differential reflectivity data often provides results that are superior to estimators that use fixed reflectivity-based relations, even if these relations were derived from the ensemble of drop...

Coastal Orographic Rainfall Processes Observed by Radar during the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment

Abstract Radar and rain gauge observations collected in coastal mountains during the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) are used to diagnose the bulk physical properties of rainfall during a wet winter season (January–March 1998). Three rainfall types were clearly distinguishable by differences in their vertical profiles of radar reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocity: nonbright band, bright band, and hybrid (seeder–feeder). The contribution of each rainfall type to the total rainfall observed at the radar site (1841 mm) was determined by a new, objective algorithm. While hybrid rain occurred most often, nonbrightband rain (NBB rain) contributed significantly (28%) to the total. This paper focuses on characterizing NBB rain because of the need to document this key physical process and because of its impact on Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) precipitation surveillance capabilities. NBB rain is a quasi-steady, shallow rain process that does not exhibit a radar bright band...

Modification of Fronts and Precipitation by Coastal Blocking during an Intense Landfalling Winter Storm in Southern California: Observations during CALJET

Abstract The California Land-falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) was carried out along the California coast, and up to 1000-km offshore, during the winter of 1997/98 to study the underlying physical processes that cause flooding rains and high winds in the orographically complex coastal zone and to explore the impact of potential future observing systems on short-term (<24 h) quantitative precipitation and wind forecasts during the landfall of winter storms from the data-sparse eastern Pacific Ocean. Using the suite of experimental and operational observing systems that were available during CALJET, this study documented the mesoscale modification of an intense landfalling cyclone by the steep coastal orography on 3 February 1998. This storm heavily impacted the populous and highly vulnerable coastal zone of southern California with flooding rains, strong winds, and major beach erosion. A pair of landfalling cold-frontal zones produced most of the damaging weather, while the primary cyclone circulation remai...

Water Vapor Fluxes and Orographic Precipitation over Northern California Associated with a Landfalling Atmospheric River

Abstract Atmospheric rivers accompanying Pacific storm systems play an important role in supplying moisture to the West Coast. Heavy precipitation associated with these systems falls not only along the west-facing slopes of the Coastal Range but also along the windward slopes of the interior Sierra Mountains. Simulations of the 29–31 December 2005 storm in northern California using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were able to realistically resolve the structure and strength of the water vapor fluxes over ocean and land. The cross-barrier, southwesterly water vapor fluxes, peaking near 700 kg m−1 s−1 at the coast, dominated the airmass transformation over the northern California mountain complex. However, there was also significant northward water vapor flux along the base of the Sierras. The combination of a narrow, short-lived water vapor source from the atmospheric river, the gap in terrain facilitating flow around the coastal mountains, and the occurrence of a strong barrier jet at the...

A Polarimetric Radar Approach to Identify Rain, Melting-Layer, and Snow Regions for Applying Corrections to Vertical Profiles of Reflectivity

Abstract This article describes polarimetric X-band radar-based quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) under conditions of low freezing levels when, even at the lowest possible elevation angles, radar resolution volumes at longer ranges are in melting-layer or snow regions while it rains at the ground. A specifically adjusted vertical-profile-of-reflectivity (VPR) approach is introduced. The mean VPR is constructed based on the range–height indicator scans, and the effects of smoothing of brightband (BB) features with range are accounted for. A principal feature of the suggested QPE approach is the determination of the reflectivity BB boundaries and freezing-level heights on a beam-by-beam basis using the copolar correlation coefficient ρhv, which is routinely available from the X-band radar measurements. It is shown that this coefficient provides a robust discrimination among the regions of rain, melting hydrometeors, and snow. The freezing-level estimates made using ρhv were within 100–200 m from ...

The Impact of a Prominent Rain Shadow on Flooding in California's Santa Cruz Mountains: A CALJET Case Study and Sensitivity to the ENSO Cycle

Abstract Data from the California Land-Falling Jets Experiment (CALJET) are used to explore the causes of variations in flood severity in adjacent coastal watersheds within the Santa Cruz Mountains on 2–3 February 1998. While Pescadero Creek (rural) experienced its flood of record, the adjacent San Lorenzo Creek (heavily populated), attained only its fourth-highest flow. This difference resulted from conditions present while the warm sector of the storm, with its associated low-level jet, high moisture content, and weak static stability, was overhead. Rainfall in the warm sector was dominated by orographic forcing. While the wind speed strongly modulated rain rates on windward slopes, the wind direction positioned the edge of a rain shadow cast by the Santa Lucia Mountains partially over the San Lorenzo basin, thus protecting the city of Santa Cruz from a more severe flood. Roughly 26% ± 9% of the streamflow at flood peak on Pescadero Creek resulted from the warm-sector rainfall. Without this rainfall, th...

Raindrop Size Distributions and Rain Characteristics in California Coastal Rainfall for Periods with and without a Radar Bright Band

Abstract Recent studies using vertically pointing S-band profiling radars showed that coastal winter storms in California and Oregon frequently do not display a melting-layer radar bright band and inferred that these nonbrightband (NBB) periods are characterized by raindrop size spectra that differ markedly from those of brightband (BB) periods. Two coastal sites in northern California were revisited in the winter of 2003/04 in this study, which extends the earlier work by augmenting the profiling radar observations with collocated raindrop disdrometers to measure drop size distributions (DSD) at the surface. The disdrometer observations are analyzed for more than 320 h of nonconvective rainfall. The new measurements confirm the earlier inferences that NBB rainfall periods are characterized by greater concentrations of small drops and smaller concentrations of large drops than BB periods. Compared with their BB counterparts, NBB periods had mean values that were 40% smaller for mean-volume diameter, 32% s...