David Hallam

A quantitative framework for livestock development planning: Part 1--The planning context and an overview

Abstract This paper presents an overview of the nature and application of a simple quantitative framework for livestock development planning. This, hopefully, provides a useful tool for use in one typical planning situation—the estimation of resource requirements, the evaluation of resource constraints and the tracing of the implications of alternative development programmes in the achievement of specified production targets. Subsequent papers will present detailed descriptions of various components of the framework and a case study of its application.

A quantitative framework for livestock development planning: Part 3—Feed demand and supply

Abstract The quantity and quality of feed available throughout the cycle of the seasons is a powerful constraint upon the rate at which livestock populations may expand and the rate at which they produce. To investigate this constraint in a national livestock development planning context it was necessary to develop an accounting system to interface feed demand with feed supply in what has been termed a Feed Balance Sheet. This presents feed deficits and/or surpluses within identified livestock production systems. The paper deals mainly with ruminant livestock populations grazing natural and improved grasslands and utilizing crop residues and agro-industrial by-products. The data illustrating the way in which the accounting system was developed are drawn from information on Sudanese livestock populations.

A quantitative framework for livestock development planning: Part 2--The determination of livestock requirements

Abstract This paper describes the structure, inputs and outputs of models designed to quantify livestock requirements for the achievement of specified production targets. The component relationships of the models describe physical production processes and population dynamics. Input data consist largely of productivity parameter values. The main output of the models is a summary of required herd size and structure.

Econometric models and agricultural policy

Abstract Econometric models are an increasingly common element in agricultural policy-making and analysis. Their nature and roles are therefore of potentially widespread interest. Discussion of econometric models in this context tends to concentrate upon the technical issues involved, however. This paper provides a non-technical discussion of econometric modelling and the role of econometric models in policy-making, and considers some of the methodological and practical/administrative difficulties associated with econometric models and their use. While concluding that econometric models do have a potentially important contribution to make to agricultural policy-making, the tone of the discussion cautions against over-optimistic expectations as to just what that contribution might be.

A quantitative framework for livestock development planning: Part 4--Testing a livestock production proposal

Abstract This paper presents an illustrative case-study of the application of a simple quantitative framework for livestock development planning. The component models of the framework itself were described in the three preceding papers of the series. Using data from Sudan, this paper examines a hypothetical development programme—livestock industry stratification and tsetse area development—aimed at easing the feed constraint on the achievement of specified cattle production targets.