David Hole

A population-based study of the long-term risks associated with atrial fibrillation: 20-year follow-up of the Renfrew/Paisley study.

PURPOSE To describe the effect of atrial fibrillation on long-term morbidity and mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The Renfrew/Paisley Study surveyed 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 years between 1972 and 1976. All hospitalizations and deaths occurring during the subsequent 20 years were analyzed by the presence or absence of atrial fibrillation at baseline. Lone atrial fibrillation was defined in the absence of other cardiovascular signs or symptoms. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for age and cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS After 20 years, 42 (89%) of the 47 women with atrial fibrillation had a cardiovascular event (death or hospitalization), compared with 2276 (27%) of the 8307 women without this arrhythmia. Among men, 35 (66%) of 53 with atrial fibrillation had an event, compared with 3151 (45%) of 6999 without atrial fibrillation. In women, atrial fibrillation was an independent predictor of cardiovascular events (rate ratio [RR] = 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-4.2), fatal or nonfatal strokes (RR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.0-5.0), and heart failure (RR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.9-6.2). The rate ratios among men were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.5) for cardiovascular events, 2.5 (95% CI: 1.3-4.8) for strokes, and 3.4 (95% CI: 1.7-6.8) for heart failure. Atrial fibrillation was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in women (RR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.5-3.2) and men (RR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-2.2). However, lone atrial fibrillation (which occurred in 15 subjects) was not associated with a statistically significant increase in either cardiovascular events (RR = 1.5; 95% CI: 0.6-3.6) or mortality (RR = 1.8; 95% CI: 0.9-3.8). CONCLUSIONS Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased long-term risk of stroke, heart failure, and all-cause mortality, especially in women.

More 'malignant' than cancer? Five-year survival following a first admission for heart failure

The prognostic impact of heart failure relative to that of ‘high‐profile’ disease states such as cancer, within the whole population, is unknown.

Impaired lung function and mortality risk in men and women : findings from the Renfrew and Paisley prospective population study

Abstract Objective: To assess the relation between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent mortality. Design: Prospective general population study. Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland. Subjects: 7058 men and 8353 women aged 45-64 years at baseline screening in 1972-6. Main outcome measure: Mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease, cancer, lung and other cancers, stroke, respiratory disease, and other causes of death after 15 years of follow up. Results: 2545 men and 1894 women died during the follow up period. Significant trends of increasing risk with diminishing FEV1 are apparent for both sexes for all the causes of death examined after adjustment for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, body mass index, and social class. The relative hazard ratios for all cause mortality for subjects in the lowest fifth of the FEV1 distribution were 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68 to 2.20) for men and 1.89 (1.63 to 2.20) for women. Corresponding relative hazard ratios were 1.56 (1.26 to 1.92) and 1.88 (1.44 to 2.47) for ischaemic heart disease, 2.53 (1.69 to 3.79) and 4.37 (1.84 to 10.42) for lung cancer, and 1.66 (1.07 to 2.59) and 1.65 (1.09 to 2.49) for stroke. Reduced FEV1 was also associated with an increased risk for each cause of death examined except cancer for lifelong nonsmokers. Conclusions: Impaired lung function is a major clinical indicator of mortality risk in men and women for a wide range of diseases. The use of FEV1 as part of any health assessment of middle aged patients should be considered. Smokers with reduced FEV1 should form a priority group for targeted advice to stop smoking. Key messages These increased risks, with the exception of the cancers, are apparent for lifelong non-smokers FEV1 is second in importance to cigarette smoking as a predictor of subsequent all cause mortality and is as important as cholesterol in predicting mortality from ischaemic heart disease FEV1 should be included in health assessment of middle aged men and women Smokers with a reduced FEV1 should be targeted with advice to stop smoking

Education and occupational social class: which is the more important indicator of mortality risk?

STUDY OBJECTIVES: In the UK, studies of socioeconomic differentials in mortality have generally relied upon occupational social class as the index of socioeconomic position, while in the US, measures based upon education have been widely used. These two measures have different characteristics; for example, social class can change throughout adult life, while education is unlikely to alter after early adulthood. Therefore different interpretations can be given to the mortality differentials that are seen. The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate the profile of mortality differentials, and the factors underlying these differentials, which are associated with the two socioeconomic measures. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: 27 work places in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5749 men aged 35-64 who completed questionnaires and were examined between 1970 and 1973. FINDINGS: At baseline, similar gradients between socioeconomic position and blood pressure, height, lung function, and smoking behaviour were seen, regardless of whether the education or social class measure was used. Manual social class and early termination of full time education were associated with higher blood pressure, shorter height, poorer lung function, and a higher prevalence of smoking. Within education strata, the graded association between smoking and social class remains strong, whereas within social class groups the relation between education and smoking is attenuated. Over 21 years of follow up, 1639 of the men died. Mortality from all causes and from three broad cause of death groups (cardiovascular disease, malignant disease, and other causes) showed similar associations with social class and education. For all cause of death groups, men in manual social classes and men who terminated full time education at an early age had higher death rates. Cardiovascular disease was the cause of death group most strongly associated with education, while the non-cardiovascular non-cancer category was the cause of death group most strongly associated with adulthood social class. The graded association between social class and all cause mortality remains strong and significant within education strata, whereas within social class strata the relation between education and mortality is less clear. CONCLUSIONS: As a single indicator of socioeconomic position occupational social class in adulthood is a better discriminator of socioeconomic differentials in mortality and smoking behaviour than is education. This argues against interpretations that see cultural--rather than material--resources as being the key determinants of socioeconomic differentials in health. The stronger association of education with death from cardiovascular causes than with other causes of death may reflect the function of education as an index of socioeconomic circumstances in early life, which appear to have a particular influence on the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Individual social class, area-based deprivation, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and mortality: the Renfrew and Paisley Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of individual and area-based socioeconomic indicators with cardiovascular disease risk factors and mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: The towns of Renfrew and Paisley in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 6961 men and 7991 women included in a population-based cardiovascular disease screening study between 1972 and 1976. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiorespiratory morbidity at the time of screening: 15 year mortality from all causes and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Both the area-based deprivation indicator and individual social class were associated with generally less favourable profiles of cardiovascular disease risk factors at the time of the baseline screening examinations. The exception was plasma cholesterol concentration, which was lower for men and women in manual social class groups. Independent contributions of area-based deprivation and individual social class were generally seen with respect to risk factors and morbidity. All cause and cardiovascular disease mortality rates were both inversely associated with socioeconomic position whether indexed by area-based deprivation or social class. The area-based and individual socioeconomic indicators made independent contributions to mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Individually assigned and area-based socioeconomic indicators make independent contributions to several important health outcomes. The degree of inequalities in health that exist will not be demonstrated in studies using only one category of indicator. Similarly, adjustment for confounding by socioeconomic position in aetiological epidemiological studies will be inadequate if only one level of indicator is used. Policies aimed at reducing socioeconomic differentials in health should pay attention to the characteristics of the areas in which people live as well as the characteristics of the people who live in these areas.

Population prevalence, incidence, and predictors of atrial fibrillation in the Renfrew/Paisley study

OBJECTIVES Though atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity, there are few large epidemiological studies of its prevalence, incidence, and risk factors. The epidemiological features of AF are described in one of the largest population cohorts ever studied. METHODS The prevalence and incidence of AF were studied in the Renfrew/Paisley population cohort of 15 406 men and women aged 45–64 years living in the west of Scotland. This cohort was initially screened between 1972 and 1976 and again between 1977 and 1979. Incident hospitalisations with AF in the 20 year period following initial screening were also studied. RESULTS The population prevalence of AF in this cohort was 6.5 cases/1000 examinations. Prevalence was higher in men and older subjects. In those who were rescreened, the four year incidence of AF was 0.54 cases/1000 person years. Radiological cardiomegaly was the most powerful predictor of new AF (adjusted odds ratio 14.0). During 20 year follow up, 3.5% of this cohort was discharged from hospital with a diagnosis of AF; the rate of incident hospitalisation for AF was 1.9 cases/1000 person years. Radiological cardiomegaly (adjusted odds ratio 1.46) and systolic blood pressure (adjusted odds ratio 2.1 for ⩾ 169 mm Hg) were independent predictors of this outcome. CONCLUSIONS Data from one of the largest epidemiological studies ever undertaken confirm that AF has a large population prevalence and incidence, even in middle aged people. More important, it was shown that the long term incidence of hospitalisation related to AF is high and that two simple clinical measurements are highly predictive of incident AF. These findings have important implications for the prevention of AF.

Benign melanocytic naevi as a risk factor for malignant melanoma.

Examination of 180 patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma and 197 control patients in a case-control study showed that the risk of melanoma is strongly related to numbers of benign melanocytic naevi (moles). Some unusual features of naevi--a diameter exceeding 7 mm, colour variation, and irregular lateral outline--also showed a strong association with the risk of melanoma, but the relation of numbers of naevi to risk was present even in the group of patients whose naevi had none of these unusual features. Biopsy of clinically atypical naevi from several of the patients at highest risk generally did not show dysplastic histology. Thus a group of people at high risk of melanoma may be identified by using simple clinical assessment of naevi.

Survival outcome of care by specialist surgeons in breast cancer: a study of 3786 patients in the west of Scotland

Abstract Objective: To compare survival outcome for patients with breast cancer cared for by specialist and non-specialist surgeons in a geographically defined area. Design: Retrospective study of all female patients aged under 75 years in the area treated between 1980 and June 1988 (before breast screening began). Patients were identified from the cancer registry and from pathology records of all hospitals in the area. Specialist surgeons were identified by one author. All other surgeons caring for patients from the area were considered non-specialists. Setting: A geographically defined population in urban west of Scotland. Subjects: 3786 patients with histologically verified breast cancer operated on between 1 January 1980 and 30 June 1988 and followed to 31 December 1993. Main outcome measures: Five and 10 year survival rates for specialists and non-specialists; relative hazard ratios derived from Coxs proportional hazards model adjusted for prognostic factors—age, socioeconomic status, tumour size, and nodal involvement. Results: The five year survival rate was 9% higher and the 10 year survival 8% higher for patients cared for by specialist surgeons. A reduction in risk of dying of 16% (95% confidence interval 6% to 25%) was found after adjustment for age, tumour size, socioeconomic status, and nodal involvement. The benefit of specialist care was apparent for all age groups, for small and large tumours, and for tumours that did and did not affect the nodes and was consistent across all socioeconomic categories. Conclusions: Survival differences of the magnitude demonstrated have implications for the provision of services for the treatment of women with breast cancer. There is a need to improve equity in the treatment of breast cancer.

Height and risk of death among men and women: aetiological implications of associations with cardiorespiratory disease and cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES Height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk and has shown variable associations with cancer incidence and mortality. The interpretation of findings from previous studies has been constrained by data limitations. Associations between height and specific causes of death were investigated in a large general population cohort of men and women from the West of Scotland. DESIGN Prospective observational study. SETTING Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland. SUBJECTS 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45–64 were recruited into a study in Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland, between 1972 and 1976. Detailed assessments of cardiovascular disease risk factors, morbidity and socioeconomic circumstances were made at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Deaths during 20 years of follow up classified into specific causes. RESULTS Over the follow up period 3347 men and 2638 women died. Height is inversely associated with all cause, coronary heart disease, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality among men and women. Adjustment for socioeconomic position and cardiovascular risk factors had little influence on these associations. Height is strongly associated with forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and adjustment for FEV1 considerably attenuated the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality. Smoking related cancer mortality is not associated with height. The risk of deaths from cancer unrelated to smoking tended to increase with height, particularly for haematopoietic, colorectal and prostate cancers. Stomach cancer mortality was inversely associated with height. Adjustment for socioeconomic position had little influence on these associations. CONCLUSION Height serves partly as an indicator of socioeconomic circumstances and nutritional status in childhood and this may underlie the inverse associations between height and adulthood cardiorespiratory mortality. Much of the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality was accounted for by lung function, which is also partly determined by exposures acting in childhood. The inverse association between height and stomach cancer mortality probably reflectsHelicobacter pylori infection in childhood resulting in—or being associated with—shorter height. The positive associations between height and several cancers unrelated to smoking could reflect the influence of calorie intake during childhood on the risk of these cancers.

Alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, and stroke: results from a prospective cohort study of Scottish men with 21 years of follow up

Abstract Objectives: To relate alcohol consumption to mortality. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: 27 workplaces in the west of Scotland. Participants: 5766 men aged 35-64 when screened in 1970-3 who answered questions on their usual weekly alcohol consumption. Main outcome measures: Mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and alcohol related causes over 21 years of follow up related to units of alcohol consumed per week. Results: Risk for all cause mortality was similar for non-drinkers and men drinking up to 14 units a week. Mortality risk then showed a graded association with alcohol consumption (relative rate compared with non-drinkers 1.34 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.58) for 15-21 units a week, 1.49 (1.27 to 1.75) for 22-34 units, 1.74 (1.47 to 2.06) for 35 or more units). Adjustment for risk factors attenuated the increased relative risks, but they remained significantly above 1 for men drinking 22 or more units a week. There was no strong relation between alcohol consumption and mortality from coronary heart disease after adjustment. A strong positive relation was seen between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality from stroke, with men drinking 35 or more units having double the risk of non-drinkers, even after adjustment. Conclusions: The overall association between alcohol consumption and mortality is unfavourable for men drinking over 22 units a week, and there is no clear evidence of any protective effect for men drinking less than this.