Graham Watt

Epidemiology of multimorbidity and implications for health care, research, and medical education: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Long-term disorders are the main challenge facing health-care systems worldwide, but health systems are largely configured for individual diseases rather than multimorbidity. We examined the distribution of multimorbidity, and of comorbidity of physical and mental health disorders, in relation to age and socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS In a cross-sectional study we extracted data on 40 morbidities from a database of 1,751,841 people registered with 314 medical practices in Scotland as of March, 2007. We analysed the data according to the number of morbidities, disorder type (physical or mental), sex, age, and socioeconomic status. We defined multimorbidity as the presence of two or more disorders. FINDINGS 42·2% (95% CI 42·1-42·3) of all patients had one or more morbidities, and 23·2% (23·08-23·21) were multimorbid. Although the prevalence of multimorbidity increased substantially with age and was present in most people aged 65 years and older, the absolute number of people with multimorbidity was higher in those younger than 65 years (210,500 vs 194,996). Onset of multimorbidity occurred 10-15 years earlier in people living in the most deprived areas compared with the most affluent, with socioeconomic deprivation particularly associated with multimorbidity that included mental health disorders (prevalence of both physical and mental health disorder 11·0%, 95% CI 10·9-11·2% in most deprived area vs 5·9%, 5·8%-6·0% in least deprived). The presence of a mental health disorder increased as the number of physical morbidities increased (adjusted odds ratio 6·74, 95% CI 6·59-6·90 for five or more disorders vs 1·95, 1·93-1·98 for one disorder), and was much greater in more deprived than in less deprived people (2·28, 2·21-2·32 vs 1·08, 1·05-1·11). INTERPRETATION Our findings challenge the single-disease framework by which most health care, medical research, and medical education is configured. A complementary strategy is needed, supporting generalist clinicians to provide personalised, comprehensive continuity of care, especially in socioeconomically deprived areas. FUNDING Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office.

Impaired lung function and mortality risk in men and women : findings from the Renfrew and Paisley prospective population study

Abstract Objective: To assess the relation between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent mortality. Design: Prospective general population study. Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland. Subjects: 7058 men and 8353 women aged 45-64 years at baseline screening in 1972-6. Main outcome measure: Mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease, cancer, lung and other cancers, stroke, respiratory disease, and other causes of death after 15 years of follow up. Results: 2545 men and 1894 women died during the follow up period. Significant trends of increasing risk with diminishing FEV1 are apparent for both sexes for all the causes of death examined after adjustment for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, body mass index, and social class. The relative hazard ratios for all cause mortality for subjects in the lowest fifth of the FEV1 distribution were 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68 to 2.20) for men and 1.89 (1.63 to 2.20) for women. Corresponding relative hazard ratios were 1.56 (1.26 to 1.92) and 1.88 (1.44 to 2.47) for ischaemic heart disease, 2.53 (1.69 to 3.79) and 4.37 (1.84 to 10.42) for lung cancer, and 1.66 (1.07 to 2.59) and 1.65 (1.09 to 2.49) for stroke. Reduced FEV1 was also associated with an increased risk for each cause of death examined except cancer for lifelong nonsmokers. Conclusions: Impaired lung function is a major clinical indicator of mortality risk in men and women for a wide range of diseases. The use of FEV1 as part of any health assessment of middle aged patients should be considered. Smokers with reduced FEV1 should form a priority group for targeted advice to stop smoking. Key messages These increased risks, with the exception of the cancers, are apparent for lifelong non-smokers FEV1 is second in importance to cigarette smoking as a predictor of subsequent all cause mortality and is as important as cholesterol in predicting mortality from ischaemic heart disease FEV1 should be included in health assessment of middle aged men and women Smokers with a reduced FEV1 should be targeted with advice to stop smoking

Education and occupational social class: which is the more important indicator of mortality risk?

STUDY OBJECTIVES: In the UK, studies of socioeconomic differentials in mortality have generally relied upon occupational social class as the index of socioeconomic position, while in the US, measures based upon education have been widely used. These two measures have different characteristics; for example, social class can change throughout adult life, while education is unlikely to alter after early adulthood. Therefore different interpretations can be given to the mortality differentials that are seen. The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate the profile of mortality differentials, and the factors underlying these differentials, which are associated with the two socioeconomic measures. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: 27 work places in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5749 men aged 35-64 who completed questionnaires and were examined between 1970 and 1973. FINDINGS: At baseline, similar gradients between socioeconomic position and blood pressure, height, lung function, and smoking behaviour were seen, regardless of whether the education or social class measure was used. Manual social class and early termination of full time education were associated with higher blood pressure, shorter height, poorer lung function, and a higher prevalence of smoking. Within education strata, the graded association between smoking and social class remains strong, whereas within social class groups the relation between education and smoking is attenuated. Over 21 years of follow up, 1639 of the men died. Mortality from all causes and from three broad cause of death groups (cardiovascular disease, malignant disease, and other causes) showed similar associations with social class and education. For all cause of death groups, men in manual social classes and men who terminated full time education at an early age had higher death rates. Cardiovascular disease was the cause of death group most strongly associated with education, while the non-cardiovascular non-cancer category was the cause of death group most strongly associated with adulthood social class. The graded association between social class and all cause mortality remains strong and significant within education strata, whereas within social class strata the relation between education and mortality is less clear. CONCLUSIONS: As a single indicator of socioeconomic position occupational social class in adulthood is a better discriminator of socioeconomic differentials in mortality and smoking behaviour than is education. This argues against interpretations that see cultural--rather than material--resources as being the key determinants of socioeconomic differentials in health. The stronger association of education with death from cardiovascular causes than with other causes of death may reflect the function of education as an index of socioeconomic circumstances in early life, which appear to have a particular influence on the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Individual social class, area-based deprivation, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and mortality: the Renfrew and Paisley Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of individual and area-based socioeconomic indicators with cardiovascular disease risk factors and mortality. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: The towns of Renfrew and Paisley in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 6961 men and 7991 women included in a population-based cardiovascular disease screening study between 1972 and 1976. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular disease risk factors and cardiorespiratory morbidity at the time of screening: 15 year mortality from all causes and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Both the area-based deprivation indicator and individual social class were associated with generally less favourable profiles of cardiovascular disease risk factors at the time of the baseline screening examinations. The exception was plasma cholesterol concentration, which was lower for men and women in manual social class groups. Independent contributions of area-based deprivation and individual social class were generally seen with respect to risk factors and morbidity. All cause and cardiovascular disease mortality rates were both inversely associated with socioeconomic position whether indexed by area-based deprivation or social class. The area-based and individual socioeconomic indicators made independent contributions to mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: Individually assigned and area-based socioeconomic indicators make independent contributions to several important health outcomes. The degree of inequalities in health that exist will not be demonstrated in studies using only one category of indicator. Similarly, adjustment for confounding by socioeconomic position in aetiological epidemiological studies will be inadequate if only one level of indicator is used. Policies aimed at reducing socioeconomic differentials in health should pay attention to the characteristics of the areas in which people live as well as the characteristics of the people who live in these areas.

Impaired microvascular dilatation and capillary rarefaction in young adults with a predisposition to high blood pressure.

Increased vascular resistance in essential hypertension occurs mainly in microvessels with luminal diameters < 100 microm. It is not known whether abnormalities in these vessels are a cause or consequence of high blood pressure (BP). We studied 105 men (aged 23-33 yr) in whom predisposition to high blood pressure has been characterized by both their own BP and those of their parents. Factors that are secondary to high BP correlate with offspring BP irrespective of parental BP, but factors that are components of the familial predisposition to high BP are more closely associated with higher BP in offspring whose parents also have high BP. Offspring with high BP whose parents also have high BP had impaired dermal vasodilatation in the forearm following ischemia and heating (289+/-27 [n = 25] versus 529+/-40 [n = 26], 476+/-38 [n = 30], and 539+/-41 flux units [n = 24] in other groups; P < 0.0001) and fewer capillaries on the dorsum of the finger (23+/-0.8 capillaries/0.25 mm2 versus 26+/-0.8 in all other groups; P < 0.003). Except for BP, other hemodynamic indices (including cardiac output and forearm vascular resistance) were not different. The dermal vessels of men who express a familial predisposition to high BP exhibit increased minimum resistance and capillary rarefaction. Defective angiogenesis may be an etiological component in the inheritance of high BP.

Abnormalities of glucocorticoid metabolism and the renin-angiotensin system: a four-corners approach to the identification of genetic determinants of blood pressure.

AIM To assess the feasibility and utility of a new method to identify factors associated with increased predisposition to high blood pressure in young people. SUBJECTS Eight hundred and sixty-four people aged 16-24 years and their parents. SETTING Ladywell Medical Centre, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK. METHOD Blood pressure was measured in 864 young adults and in both of their parents. Four groups of approximately 50 offspring were selected from the corners of a scatter diagram, with offspring blood pressure scores on one axis and combined parental blood pressure scores on the other. Blood and urine samples were taken for biochemical and genetic analyses. RESULTS Two groups of offspring had parents with high blood pressure and two groups had parents with low blood pressure. When parental blood pressure was low, comparison of offspring with high and low blood pressure revealed significantly higher mean body mass index in offspring with high blood pressure, but no significant elevation of biochemical or hormonal variables. When parental blood pressure was high, comparison of offspring with high and low blood pressure also revealed a significant difference in body mass index, but in addition, offspring with high blood pressure and high parental blood pressure had higher levels of angiotensinogen, cortisol and 18-OH corticosterone. Restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis revealed that 27% of offspring at the greatest genetic risk (high personal and parental blood pressure) were homozygous for the larger allele of the glucocorticoid receptor gene compared with only 9% of those at lowest genetic risk (low personal and parental blood pressure). CONCLUSION The combined biochemical and genetic findings suggest that abnormalities of glucocorticoid metabolism and the renin-angiotensin system may help to explain genetic predisposition to high blood pressure. The new sampling method is practicable and could be applied to the investigation of other continuously distributed variables which show familial aggregation.

Intergenerational 20 year trends in the prevalence of asthma and hay fever in adults: the Midspan family study surveys of parents and offspring.

Abstract Objective: To estimate trends between 1972–6 and 1996 in the prevalences of asthma and hay fever in adults. Design: Two epidemiological surveys 20 years apart. Identical questions were asked about asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms at each survey. Setting: Renfrew and Paisley, two towns in the west of Scotland. Subjects: 1477 married couples aged 45–64 participated in a general population survey in 1972-6; and 2338 offspring aged 30–59 participated in a 1996 survey. Prevalences were compared in 1708 parents and 1124 offspring aged 45-54. Main outcome measures: Prevalences of asthma, hay fever, and respiratory symptoms. Results: In never smokers, age and sex standardised prevalences of asthma and hay fever were 3.0% and 5.8% respectively in 1972-6, and 8.2% and 19.9% in 1996. In ever smokers, the corresponding values were 1.6% and 5.4% in 1972–6 and 5.3% and 15.5% in 1996. In both generations, the prevalence of asthma was higher in those who reported hay fever (atopic asthma). In never smokers, reports of wheeze not labelled as asthma were about 10 times more common in 1972–6 than in 1996. With a broader definition of asthma (asthma and/or wheeze), to minimise diagnostic bias, the overall prevalence of asthma changed little. However, diagnostic bias mainly affected non-atopic asthma. Atopic asthma increased more than twofold (prevalence ratio 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 6.28)) whereas the prevalence of non-atopic asthma did not change (1.00 (0.53 to 1.90)). Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma in adults has increased more than twofold in 20 years, largely in association with trends in atopy, as measured indirectly by the prevalence of hay fever. No evidence was found for an increase in diagnostic awareness being responsible for the trend in atopic asthma, but increased awareness may account for trends in non-atopic asthma.

Height and risk of death among men and women: aetiological implications of associations with cardiorespiratory disease and cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES Height is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease mortality risk and has shown variable associations with cancer incidence and mortality. The interpretation of findings from previous studies has been constrained by data limitations. Associations between height and specific causes of death were investigated in a large general population cohort of men and women from the West of Scotland. DESIGN Prospective observational study. SETTING Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland. SUBJECTS 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45–64 were recruited into a study in Renfrew and Paisley, in the West of Scotland, between 1972 and 1976. Detailed assessments of cardiovascular disease risk factors, morbidity and socioeconomic circumstances were made at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Deaths during 20 years of follow up classified into specific causes. RESULTS Over the follow up period 3347 men and 2638 women died. Height is inversely associated with all cause, coronary heart disease, stroke, and respiratory disease mortality among men and women. Adjustment for socioeconomic position and cardiovascular risk factors had little influence on these associations. Height is strongly associated with forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and adjustment for FEV1 considerably attenuated the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality. Smoking related cancer mortality is not associated with height. The risk of deaths from cancer unrelated to smoking tended to increase with height, particularly for haematopoietic, colorectal and prostate cancers. Stomach cancer mortality was inversely associated with height. Adjustment for socioeconomic position had little influence on these associations. CONCLUSION Height serves partly as an indicator of socioeconomic circumstances and nutritional status in childhood and this may underlie the inverse associations between height and adulthood cardiorespiratory mortality. Much of the association between height and cardiorespiratory mortality was accounted for by lung function, which is also partly determined by exposures acting in childhood. The inverse association between height and stomach cancer mortality probably reflectsHelicobacter pylori infection in childhood resulting in—or being associated with—shorter height. The positive associations between height and several cancers unrelated to smoking could reflect the influence of calorie intake during childhood on the risk of these cancers.

Sex Differences in Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Deaths in the Scottish MONICA Population of Glasgow 1985 to 1991 Presentation, Diagnosis, Treatment, and 28-Day Case Fatality of 3991 Events in Men and 1551 Events in Women

BACKGROUND Scottish MONICA used medical and medico-legal records and World Health Organization MONICA Project criteria to register coronary events in 25- to 64-year-old residents of the high-incidence area of north Glasgow from 1985 to 1991. METHODS AND RESULTS Age-standardized data from 3991 episodes of nonfatal definite myocardial infarction and coronary deaths in men (mean age, 55.5 years) were compared with 1551 in women (57.0 years). Many results, such as the overall 28-day fatality rates of 49.8% in men and 48.5% in women, showed insignificant differences. However, 74.3% of deaths in men occurred out of hospital versus 67.8% in women (P = .0004). After admission to hospital, fatality rates in women were 14% higher (P = .07) and after admission to coronary care, 22% higher (P = .04). Women were more often widowed. Fewer had a history of previous myocardial infarction, but the prevalence of angina pectoris, of smoking, and of chest pain in the attack was the same as in men; more had shock, syncope, and breathlessness. More consulted a doctor before admission to hospital, which delayed their coming under care. More men had ECG Q-wave progression, and more women had smaller ECG changes. This, and marginally reduced chances of direct admission to coronary care, of thrombolysis, of aspirin, and of beta-blockers, did not explain womens excess hospital fatality. CONCLUSIONS Acute coronary events appear to be recognized and treated fairly equally in men and women 25 to 64 years old in Glasgow, so differences are small but subtle. More men die suddenly out of hospital; the reason why more women die after arrival may be because the equivalent number of men have already died outside.

The Inverse Care Law: Clinical Primary Care Encounters in Deprived and Affluent Areas of Scotland

PURPOSE The inverse care law states that the availability of good medical care tends to vary inversely with the need for it in the population served, but there is little research on how the inverse care law actually operates. METHODS A questionnaire study was carried out on 3,044 National Health Service (NHS) patients attending 26 general practitioners (GPs); 16 in poor areas (most deprived) and 10 in affluent areas (least deprived) in the west of Scotland. Data were collected on demographic and socioeconomic factors, health variables, and a range of factors relating to quality of care. RESULTS Compared with patients in least deprived areas, patients in the most deprived areas had a greater number of psychological problems, more long-term illness, more multimorbidity, and more chronic health problems. Access to care generally took longer, and satisfaction with access was significantly lower in the most deprived areas. Patients in the most deprived areas had more problems to discuss (especially psychosocial), yet clinical encounter length was generally shorter. GP stress was higher and patient enablement was lower in encounters dealing with psychosocial problems in the most deprived areas. Variation in patient enablement between GPs was related to both GP empathy and severity of deprivation. CONCLUSIONS The increased burden of ill health and multimorbidity in poor communities results in high demands on clinical encounters in primary care. Poorer access, less time, higher GP stress, and lower patient enablement are some of the ways that the inverse care law continues to operate within the NHS and confounds attempts to narrow health inequalities.