David J. Zimmerman

Estimates of the Returns to Schooling from Sibling Data: Fathers, Sons and Brothers

Data on brothers and on fathers and sons from the National Longitudinal Survey are used to consider the impact of omitted variables and measurement errors on the economic returns to schooling. The analysis suggests that the upward bias in estimated returns due to omitted variables is likely offset by an equal downward bias resulting from measurement errors in reported schooling. Controlling for both of these potential sources of bias yields results comparable to conventional regression estimates of the economic return to schooling.

Roe V. Wade and American Fertility

OBJECTIVES This article examines the effect of abortion legalization on fertility rates in the United States. METHODS Fertility rates were compared over time between states that varied in the timing of abortion legalization. RESULTS States legalizing abortion experienced a 4% decline in fertility relative to states where the legal status of abortion was unchanged. The relative reductions in births to teens, women more than 35 years of age, non-White women, and unmarried women were considerably larger. If women did not travel between states to obtain an abortion, the estimated impact of abortion legalization on birth rates would be about 11%. CONCLUSIONS A complete recriminalization of abortion nationwide could result in 440,000 additional births per year. A reversal of the Roe v Wade decision leaving abortion legal in some states would substantially limit this impact because of the extent of travel between states.

The effect of Medicaid abortion funding restrictions on abortions, pregnancies and births

This paper considers whether state Medicaid abortion funding restrictions affect the likelihood of getting pregnant, having an abortion, and bearing a child. Aggregate, state-level data and microdata from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) are applied in the empirical work. Changes in laws resulting from Supreme Court decisions create a natural experiment which is utilized to examine fertility behavior. Multivariate models controlling for state and, in the NLSY, personal characteristics are also estimated using alternative fixed effect specifications. We find that Medicaid funding restrictions are associated with a reduction in both the number of abortions and pregnancies, resulting in either no change or a reduction in births.

The Benefit of Additional High-School Math and Science Classes for Young Men and Women

This article examines the effects of taking more high-school math and science classes on wages, the likelihood of entering a technical job or a job traditional for ones sex, and the likelihood of choosing a technical college major or a major traditional for ones sex. Results from two data sets show that taking more high-school math increases wages and increases the likelihood of entering technical and nontraditional fields for female college graduates. No significant impact from taking more high school math is consistently observed for other workers, and high-school science courses have little effect on these outcomes.

Where is Aggressive Price Competition Taking Higher Education

It is increasingly clear that price competition is escalating in the market for higher education. We attempt to understand how price competition would work in higher education and explore the likely long run equilibrium structure of prices in that context. We draw inferences using both microeconomic theory and historical parallels found in the market for graduate education. Our analysis suggests that negative prices are likely to prevail at the wealthiest colleges and universities. Using data from IPEDS we estimate the resulting distribution of prices and school quality. While price competition may increase attendance by low income students at the wealthiest colleges and universities, it is unclear how they will fare at schools with middling wealth and resources. Further, schools with less accumulated wealth will be particularly vulnerable to any ensuing price competition. While our conclusions must be interpreted with caution, they do suggest some cause for alarm.

A Comparison of the Sex-Type of Occupational Aspirations and Subsequent Achievement

This article further explores the connection between the sex-type of a girls occupational aspirations and the sex-type of her subsequent occupation achieved in the labor market. The authors replicate previous work by Jerry Jacobs and build on it by using more recent data and an alternative methodology to address this issue. Two cohorts of data from the National Longitudinal Surveys are employed to estimate transition probability matrices between the sex-types of aspired occupations and the sex-types of achieved occupations. Then, multivariate models of the probability of entering a traditional (i.e., female-dominated) or nontraditional (i.e., male-dominated) occupation are estimated. The authors find that Jacobs actually overestimated the relationship between aspirations and achievement and that this relationship has, in some ways, grown weaker over time.