David Letson

Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience

Abstract The availability of long-lead ENSO-related climate forecasts has led many to speculate that such forecasts may benefit decision making in agriculture. To explore the conditions required for the effective use of climate forecasts, we conducted a pilot study focused on central-eastern Argentina. Historical records showed higher (lower) average precipitation during warm (cold) ENSO events in November–December. However, variability of the precipitation signal within ENSO phases was high. National-level yields of maize, soybeans and sorghum tended to be higher (lower) during warm (cold) events. A field survey was conducted to identify impediments for forecast adoption and learn how to communicate climate information. Most farmers surveyed know about ENSO, with the 1997–1998 event marking a “turning point” in their awareness of the phenomenon. Finally, various modeling approaches were used to explore outcomes of alternative management options (changes in crop management and land allocation) tailored to climate scenarios associated with each ENSO phase. Simulation exercises identified differences in optimal management between ENSO phases.

Responding to stakeholder's demands for climate information: from research to applications in Florida

Abstract Previous research shows that Floridas climate and agricultural production are influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, suggesting that farmers and ranchers might use new methods of climate forecasting to modify management, increase profits and reduce economic risks. The purposes of this paper are to describe the framework used by a Florida Consortium (FC) of researchers to assess the potential use of climate forecasts in agricultural decision-making and to summarize what was learned in the research process. The framework includes components for generation, communication and use of climate information as well as an implementation and evaluation component. Results showed that winter months are affected most by ENSO phase (higher rainfall and lower temperatures in El Nino years and the opposite during La Nina years). Yields of most crops were significantly associated with ENSO phase as were prices of some commodities. Through various mechanisms of interacting with farmers, ranchers, and extension faculty, we learned that interest in climate forecasts varied widely from highly optimistic to skeptical, and that these clients had good ideas of how to vary management if they have good forecasts. Case studies aimed at understanding potential value and risks associated with use of climate forecasts were conducted for winter fresh market tomato, cow-calf operations, and peanut production. Analytical results, confirmed by interactions with clients, showed significant value in using climate forecasts to alter specific decisions. Risks of using climate information varied among commodities, with considerable risk found in tomato due to the strong link between production and price. Perhaps the most important lesson learned was the importance of engaging trusted advisors in research and outreach efforts. A major output of the project was the close cooperation established between the FC and the Florida Cooperative Extension Service. Prospects for sustaining a climate information program in Florida are high due to joint research and extension initiatives.

Visitor Preferences for Public Beach Amenities and Beach Restoration in South Florida

Coastal erosion threatens many sandy beaches and the ecological, economic, social and cultural amenities they provide. The problem is especially chronic in South Florida. A frequent solution for beach restoration involves sand replacement, or nourishment, but is temporary, expensive, and has usually been funded by governmental sources. However, as such agencies reduce their share and require more local funding, beach nourishment must rely on other funding sources, including beach recreationists. Our study characterized three South Florida beaches and probed visitor willingness-to-pay for beach nourishment. We found that even beaches within close proximity attract different user types. Users are amenable to higher fees if they lead to greater resource protection.

A linked-modeling framework to estimate maize production risk associated with ENSO-related climate variability in Argentina

Abstract A risk assessment framework is presented to characterize the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO)-related climate variability. The framework was applied to current maize production systems in two locations (Pergamino and Pilar) in the Pampas of central-eastern Argentina. Climatic, agronomic, and economic models were linked to produce probability distributions of farm-level yields and net returns by ENSO phase. Generally, an enhanced chance of higher (lower) simulated maize yields existed during warm (cold) ENSO events. However, regional differences existed: the effect of warm events on yields was more marked in Pilar, but Pergamino showed a proportionally stronger response to cold events. The modeling framework allowed the exploration of outcomes of high and low scenarios of soil water availability at planting time and ENSO phase. High initial soil water availability in Pilar offset increased yield risks from dry conditions associated with cold ENSO events. Fluctuations of output prices were shown to have considerable influence on the risk associated with ENSO-related climate variability. Despite these general results, there was considerable overlap in yields and net returns for the various ENSO phases. This overlap has significant implications for the adoption of ENSO forecasts in agriculture. The risk assessment framework developed here is a necessary precursor to risk management studies that prescribe or describe possible responses to expected climate scenarios.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE INFORMATION ON REDUCING FARM RISK BY OPTIMIZING CROP INSURANCE STRATEGY

Predictability of seasonal climate variability associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) suggests a potential to reduce farm risk by selecting crop insurance products with the purpose of increasing farm income stability. A hypothetical 50% peanut, 50% cotton, non-irrigated, 40 ha (100 ac) north Florida farm was used to study the interactions of different crop insurance products with ENSO-based climate information and levels of risk aversion under uncertain conditions of climate and prices. Crop yields simulated by the DSSAT suite of crop models using multiyear weather data combined with historical series of prices were used to generate long series of stochastic income distributions in a whole-farm model portfolio. The farm model optimized planting dates and simulated uncertain incomes for 50 alternative crop insurance combinations for different levels of risk aversion under different planning horizons. Results suggested that incomes are greatest and most stable for low risk-averse farmers when catastrophic (CAT) insurance for cotton and 70% or 75% actual production history (APH) for peanut are selected in all ENSO phases. For high risk-averse farmers, the best strategy depends on the ENSO phase: (1) 70% crop revenue coverage (CRC) or CAT for cotton and 65% APH for peanut during EL Nino years; (2) CAT for cotton and 65%, 70%, or 75% APH for peanut during neutral years; and (3) 65% to 70% APH, or CAT for cotton and 70% APH for peanut during La Nina years. Optimal planting dates varied for all ENSO phases, risk aversion levels, and selected crop insurance products.

Confined Animal Production and Groundwater Protection

Our national screening model considers agricultural practices, hydrologie vulnerability, and groundwater use to identify areas that might need in-depth study to determine whether agricultural manure use contributes to groundwater quality problems. Economic efficiency dictates that, at the margin, the benefits of reducing manure nitrogen loadings to groundwater should be at least as great as the costs. However, efficiency on a national scale is complicated by the variability of costs and benefits across groundwater basins. National mandates are unlikely to be efficient, except as minimal protection. Case-by-case approaches can provide efficient additional protection as needed, but they have substantial information requirements. The high cost of site-specific data on water use, values, and hydrologic settings demands that the cases examined be selected with care. We focus on the threat of manure to groundwater use for three reasons. First, manure nutrient loadings might be on the rise because of ongoing structural changes in animal production. Second, prevention in some cases is the most economic response to threats or incidents of contamination. Replacement costs for the provision of bottled water or other alternatives are often higher than the cost of preserving existing groundwater resources. Third, the 1996 Federal Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR) authorizes

Assessing the value of climate information and forecasts for the agricultural sector in the Southeastern United States: multi-output stochastic frontier approach

1.3 billion for environmental and conservation improvements, at least half of which must go to animal production. FAIR also mandates that the spending maximize environmental benefits per dollar. Clearly, groundwater protection is a candidate for such spending.

Measuring the initial economic effects of hurricanes on commercial fish production: the US Gulf of Mexico grouper (Serranidae) fishery

A multi-output/input stochastic distance frontier model is used to analyze the effect of interannual climatic variability on agricultural production and to assess the impact of climate forecasts on the economic performance of this sector in the Southeastern United States. The results show that the omission of climatic conditions when estimating regional agricultural production models could lead to biased technical efficiency (TE) estimates. This climate bias may significantly affect the effectiveness of rural development policies based on regional economic performance comparisons. We also found that seasonal rainfall and temperature forecasts have a positive effect on economic performance of agriculture. However, the effectiveness of climate forecasts on improving TE is sensitive to the type of climate index used. Policy implications stemming from the results are also presented.

A hydro-economic model of South Florida water resources system

A stochastic production frontier was used to measure the initial (i.e., bi-weekly) economic effects of hurricanes on commercial grouper (Serranidae) production in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the United States Gulf of Mexico from 2005 to 2009. We estimated the economic effects of productivity losses associated with specific hurricanes on the commercial grouper fleet. We also calculated the economic effects due to productivity losses during an entire hurricane season at the regional level. The empirical model controls for input levels as well as other factors affecting production to isolate the initial economic effect caused by hurricanes from other non-weather-related factors. The empirical results revealed that hurricanes striking the Gulf of Mexico coastline from 2005 to 2009 had a negative effect on the production of the commercial grouper fleet. The results also demonstrated the relative importance of inputs and regulations on fish production.

Agricultural Decision Making in the Argentine Pampas: Modeling the Interaction between Uncertain and Complex Environments and Heterogeneous and Complex Decision Makers

South Floridas water infrastructure and ecosystems are under pressure from socio-economic growth. Understanding the regions water resources management tradeoffs is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies to cope with emerging challenges such as climate change and sea level rise, which are expected to affect many other regions in the future. We describe a network-based hydro-economic optimization model of the system to investigate the tradeoffs, incorporating the economic value of water in urban and agricultural sectors and economic damages due to urban flooding while also accounting for water supply to sustain fragile ecosystems such as the Everglades and coastal estuaries. Results illustrate that maintaining high reliability of urban water supply under scenarios of reduced water availability (i.e., drier climate conditions) may trigger economic losses to the Everglades Agricultural Area, which will likely become more vulnerable as competition over scarce water resources increases. More pronounced economic losses are expected in urban and agricultural areas when flows to the Everglades are prioritized. Flow targets for coastal estuaries are occasionally exceeded under optimal flow allocations to various demand nodes, indicating that additional storage may be needed to maintain the environmental integrity of the estuarine ecosystems. Wetter climate conditions, on the other hand, generally lead to increased flows throughout the system with positive effects on meeting water demands, although flood mitigation efforts will necessitate additional releases to the estuaries. Strengths and limitations of the hydro-economic model are discussed.