David Zierden

Responding to stakeholder's demands for climate information: from research to applications in Florida

Abstract Previous research shows that Floridas climate and agricultural production are influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, suggesting that farmers and ranchers might use new methods of climate forecasting to modify management, increase profits and reduce economic risks. The purposes of this paper are to describe the framework used by a Florida Consortium (FC) of researchers to assess the potential use of climate forecasts in agricultural decision-making and to summarize what was learned in the research process. The framework includes components for generation, communication and use of climate information as well as an implementation and evaluation component. Results showed that winter months are affected most by ENSO phase (higher rainfall and lower temperatures in El Nino years and the opposite during La Nina years). Yields of most crops were significantly associated with ENSO phase as were prices of some commodities. Through various mechanisms of interacting with farmers, ranchers, and extension faculty, we learned that interest in climate forecasts varied widely from highly optimistic to skeptical, and that these clients had good ideas of how to vary management if they have good forecasts. Case studies aimed at understanding potential value and risks associated with use of climate forecasts were conducted for winter fresh market tomato, cow-calf operations, and peanut production. Analytical results, confirmed by interactions with clients, showed significant value in using climate forecasts to alter specific decisions. Risks of using climate information varied among commodities, with considerable risk found in tomato due to the strong link between production and price. Perhaps the most important lesson learned was the importance of engaging trusted advisors in research and outreach efforts. A major output of the project was the close cooperation established between the FC and the Florida Cooperative Extension Service. Prospects for sustaining a climate information program in Florida are high due to joint research and extension initiatives.

Warming up to climate change: a participatory approach to engaging with agricultural stakeholders in the Southeast US

Within the context of a changing climate, scientists are called to engage directly with agricultural stakeholders for the coproduction of relevant information that will support decision making and adaptation. However, values, beliefs, identities, goals, and social networks shape perceptions and actions about climate change. Engagement processes that ignore the socio-cultural context within which stakeholders are embedded may fail to guide adaptive responses. To facilitate dialog around these issues, the Southeast Climate Consortium and the Florida Climate Institute formed a climate learning network consisting of row crop farmers, agricultural extension specialists, researchers, and climate scientists working in the Southeast US. Regional in scope, the learning network engages researchers and practitioners from Alabama, Georgia, and Florida as partners in adaptation science. This paper describes the ongoing interactions, dialog, and experiential learning among the network’s diverse participants. We illustrate how participatory tools have been used in a series of workshops to create interactive spaces for knowledge coproduction. For example, historical timelines, climate scenarios, and technology exchanges stimulated discussions about climate-related risk management. We present findings from the workshops related to participants’ perspectives on climate change and adaptation. Finally, we discuss lessons learned that may be applicable to other groups involved in climate education, communication, and stakeholder engagement. We suggest that the thoughtful design of stakeholder engagement processes can become a powerful social tool for improving decision support and strengthening adaptive capacity within rural communities.

Cyclone surface pressure fields and frontogenesis from NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) winds

Two extratropical marine cyclones and their associated frontal features are examined by computing surface pressure fields from NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) winds. A variational method solves for a new surface pressure field by blending high-resolution (25 km) relative vorticity computed along the satellite track with an initial geostrophic vorticity field. Employing this method with each successive pass of the satellite over the study area allows this surface pressure field to evolve as dictated by the relative vorticity patterns computed from NSCAT winds. The result is a high-resolution surface pressure field that captures features such as fronts and low-pressure centers in more detail than National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. While using the actual relative vorticity to adjust the geostrophic vorticity ignores the ageostrophy of surface winds, which can be significant in the vicinity of fronts and jet streaks, it is a necessary approximation given that the technique uses only surface data. The NSCAT surface pressure fields prove to be nearly as accurate as NCEP reanalyses when compared to ship and buoy observations, which is an encouraging result given that NCEP reanalyses incorporate a myriad of data sources and the NSCAT fields rely primarily on one source. In addition, the high-resolution relative vorticity fields computed from NSCAT winds reveal the location of surface fronts in great detail. These fronts are verified using NCEP analyses, in situ data, and satellite imagery.

Are Gulf Landfalling Hurricanes Getting Stronger

Recent predictions of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, as well as explosive coastal population growth, have prompted a study of the trends in quantity and intensity of U.S. landfalling hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Gulf of Mexico hurricane landfalls from Cape Sable, Florida, to Brownsville, Texas, are binned by decade from 1886 to 1995 to determine whether gulf hurricane landfalls are becoming more or less frequent. From these bins, subsets of intense hurricanes (sustained winds of 96 kt or more) per decade are also made. The results show that there is no sign of an increase of hurricane frequency or intensity in the Gulf of Mexico at this time.

The art of the science: Climate forecasts for wildfire management in the southeastern United States

This article illustrates how a wildfire risk forecast evolved iteratively based on stakeholder consultations. An assessment based on phone interviews indicates that such forecasts can assist fire management decisions, such as deployment of human, financial, and material resources and management of forest, timber, and habitats, and public safety. But careful attention to communication, collaboration, and capacity building is key to realizing this potential.

AgClimate: Information and Tools for Decision Making in Agriculture

AgClimate is a response to the need for information and tools on proactive adaptations to seasonal climate variability forecasts in the Southeastern US. Extension agents, agricultural producers, forest managers, crop consultants, and policy makers may use this decision support system to aid in decision making concerning management adjustments in light of climate forecasts. Adaptations include those that maximize yields as well as others that might mitigate potential losses. AgClimate is a web-based DSS that was designed and implemented in partnership with state Extension Services. It has two main components: the front end interface and a set of dynamic tools. The website was deployed in a Linux environment with specific applications and Perl modules installed. The dynamic tools were developed using the PHP web programming language interacting with FLASH movies and MySQL databases. The main navigation menu includes the AgClimate tools, forecasts, crops, forestry, pasture, livestock, and a climate and El Nino section with background information. The AgClimate tools section contains two applications or tools that allow a user to exam the climate forecast for his/her county based on the ENSO phase and to evaluate yield potentials for peanut, tomato and potato in a limited number of counties.