David M. Brommer

HEAT MORTALITY VERSUS COLD MORTALITY A Study of Conflicting Databases in the United States

Abstract Studies, public reports, news reports, and Web sites cite a wide range of values associated with deaths resulting from excessive heat and excessive cold. For example, in the United States, the National Climatic Data Centers Storm Data statistics of temperature- related deaths are skewed heavily toward heat-related deaths, while the National Center for Health Statistics Compressed Mortality Database indicates the reverse—4 times more people die of “excessive cold” conditions in a given year than of “excessive heat.” In this study, we address the fundamental differences in the various temperature-related mortality databases, assess their benefits and limitations, and offer suggestions as to their use. These datasets suffer from potential incompleteness of source information, long compilation times, limited quality control, and the subjective determination of a direct versus indirect cause of death. In general, these separate mortality datasets should not be combined or compared, particularly with ...

Hydrometeorological application of an extratropical cyclone classification scheme in the southern United States

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in the southern United States are often overlooked when compared with tropical cyclones in the region and ETCs in the northern United States. Although southern ETCs are significant weather events, there is currently not an operational scheme used for identifying and discussing these nameless storms. In this research, we classified 84 ETCs (1970–2009). We manually identified five distinct formation regions and seven unique ETC types using statistical classification. Statistical classification employed the use of principal components analysis and two methods of cluster analysis. Both manual and statistical storm types generally showed positive (negative) relationships with El Niño (La Niña). Manual storm types displayed precipitation swaths consistent with discrete storm tracks which further legitimizes the existence of multiple modes of southern ETCs. Statistical storm types also displayed unique precipitation intensity swaths, but these swaths were less indicative of track location. It is hoped that by classifying southern ETCs into types, that forecasters, hydrologists, and broadcast meteorologists might be able to better anticipate projected amounts of precipitation at their locations.

Pet Ownership and the Spatial and Temporal Dimensions of Evacuation Decisions

The authors surveyed a sample of evacuees displaced by Hurricane Gustav about their decision to include or not include household pets in their evacuation plans. Data were collected along two major evacuation routes within the 48-hour window prior to landfall in the southern and coastal regions of Louisiana, south of Interstate 10. Zip code data collected from the surveys showed that respondents most frequently evacuated from the zip code regions of New Orleans, Houma, and Lafayette. Results revealed that the majority of evacuees with pets chose to include them in their evacuation plans, highlighting the significance that household pets play in making timely evacuation decisions. While not significant in every region, evacuation distance was less for people with pets than people who did not have pets in their vehicles.

Local and regional discriminators of mesoscale convective vortex development in Arizona

Abstract In approximately half of Arizonas summer season (June–September) mesoscale convective systems evolve into mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs). Analysis of satellite imagery identified MCVs in Arizona over the period 1991–2000, and local and regional rawinsonde data discriminated conditions conducive for MCV development. These results indicate that MCVs are more likely to form from convective systems when the local and regional environments are characterized by relative stability in the 850–700-hPa layer and moderate wind shear in the 500–200-hPa layer. These characteristics are similar to results reported for MCV development in the central United States.