Robert C. Balling

Weekly cycles of air pollutants, precipitation and tropical cyclones in the coastal NW Atlantic region

Direct human influences on climate have been detected at local scales, such as urban temperature increases and precipitation enhancement, and at global scales,. A possible indication of an anthropogenic effect on regional climate is by identification of equivalent weekly cycles in climate and pollution variables. Weekly cycles have been observed in both global surface temperature and local pollution data sets. Here we describe statistical analyses that reveal weekly cycles in three independent regional-scale coastal Atlantic data sets: lower-troposphere pollution, precipitation and tropical cyclones. Three atmospheric monitoring stations record minimum concentrations of ozone and carbon monoxide early in the week, while highest concentrations are observed later in the week. This air-pollution cycle corresponds to observed weekly variability in regional rainfall and tropical cyclones. Specifically, satellite-based precipitation estimates indicate that near-coastal ocean areas receive significantly more precipitation at weekends than on weekdays. Near-coastal tropical cyclones have, on average, significantly weaker surface winds, higher surface pressure and higher frequency at weekends. Although our statistical findings limit the identification of cause–effect relationships, we advance the hypothesis that the thermal influence of pollution-derived aerosols on storms may drive these weekly climate cycles.

The climatic impact of a Sonoran vegetation discontinuity

The international fence separating Mexico and the United States is marked by a sharp vegetation discontinuity in the Sonoran Desert. Due to overgrazing, the Mexican side of the border has shorter grasses, more bare soil, and a higher albedo compared to the adjacent lands in the United States. In this investigation, long-term climate records are analyzed to determine the magnitude of any climatic differences associated with the spatial variation in the vegetation regime. The results suggest that summertime maximum temperatures recorded at the Mexican stations are significantly higher (by nearly 2.5 °C) than the Arizona stations when latitude and elevation are held constant. When only elevation is held constant, the difference in the maximum temperature jumps to approximately 4 dgC. No discernible changes in monthly and/or summer season precipitation could be identified in the records. These findings add support to other site-specific field measurements suggesting warming in desert areas where vegetation cover is decreasing and albedo is increasing.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK: IS THE DROUGHT-RELATED RISK OF WILDFIRES INCREASING?

The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO2 are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.

Measuring the effect of overgrazing in the Sonoran Desert

Long term overgrazing in Mexico has caused a sharp discontinuity in vegetative cover along the international border in the semi-arid Sonoran Desert. The United States side, protected from overgrazing by the Taylor Act since 1934, exhibits longer, more plentiful grasses and less bare soil than adjoining Mexican lands. Satellite- and ground-based datasets were used in a multi-scale examination of the differential radiative and reflective characteristics of the two regimes. The more exposed Mexican landscape dries more rapidly than the United States following summer convective precipitation. After about three days, depletion of soil moisture evokes a period of higher surface and air temperatures in Mexico. Good correspondence was found between remote and in situ measures of surface temperature and biomass.

Temporal variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in Kuwait City, Kuwait with comparisons to Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Hourly atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration measurements are available from 1996 to present for a suburban site within the growing metropolitan area of Kuwait City. Analyses of this record reveal (a) an annual cycle with highest values in February and lowest values in September reflecting the growth and decay of vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere as well as fluctuations in motor traffic, (b) a weekly cycle with highest values during the weekdays and lowest values during weekends, and (c) a diurnal cycle with highest values after sunset when the local atmosphere becomes more stable following vehicular emission of CO2 throughout the day and lowest values in late afternoon following several hours of relatively unstable conditions. During the daytime, CO2 concentrations are related to wind direction, with westerly winds (coming from the desert) promoting lowest CO2 concentrations. At night, lowest CO2 levels are associated with higher wind speeds and winds from the north. The findings from the Kuwait City area, particularly when contrasted with the situation in Phoenix, further our understanding of the dynamics of CO2 levels in urban environments.

Impacts of land degradation on historical temperature records from the sonoran desert

Previous research revealed that severe overgrazing and resultant land degradation in the semiarid areas of northern Mexico created significantly higher temperatures in the border area. In this investigation, the temperature and precipitation records from ten ‘homogeneous’ stations are identified in the arid and hyperarid areas of northwest Sonora and are compared with the records from ten stations in southwestern Arizona. Our data show that the Mexican stations are again consistently warmer than the Arizona stations when statistical controls are applied to correct for the linear or non-linear effects of latitude and/or elevation. The stations in Sonora warm at a statistically significantly faster pace than the stations in Arizona during the study period. Furthermore, and consistent with other dryland areas undergoing land degradation, the stations in Sonora reveal a significant increase in the diurnal temperature range during the summer season. Local precipitation reduces the temperature differential between nations on the time scale of days, but enhances the differential on the time scale of months and seasons. Among other findings, the results show how land degradation in dryland areas appears to influence local historical temperature records.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy Mapping and the Soft Data Problem in Urban Climate Research

The pressing problem of Phoenixs urban heat island (UHI) has spawned numerous academic studies of the spatiotemporal nature of this physical process and its relationship to energy and water use, urban design features, and ecosystem processes. Critical to these studies is an accurate representation of the UHI over space and time. This article is concerned chiefly with representing the UHI by using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method of modern geostatistics to account for data uncertainty from missing records. We apply BME to the UHI in Phoenix by retrieving and mapping minimum temperature observations over time from historical weather station networks, then testing our mapping accuracy compared to traditional maps that do not account for data uncertainty. The results demonstrate that BME leads to increases of mapping accuracy (up to 35.28 percent over traditional linear kriging analysis). A subsequent synthetic case study confirms that substantial increases in mapping accuracy occur when there are many cases of missing or uncertain data. Use of BME reduces the need for costly sampling protocols and produces UHI maps that can be integrated with other data about human and environmental processes in future studies of urban sustainability.

Rising Temperatures, Human Health, and the Role of Adaptation

There is near consensus in the scientific community that humans will experience higher future temperatures due to the ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The human response to this climatic change, particularly if accompanied by a surge in extreme heat events, is a key topic being addressed by scientists across many disciplines. In this article, we review recent (2012–2015) research on human health impacts of observed and projected increases in summer temperature. We find that studies based on projected changes in climate indicate substantial increases in heat-related mortality and morbidity in the future, while observational studies based on historical climate and health records show a decrease in negative impacts during recent warming. The discrepancy between the two groups of studies generally involves how well and how quickly humans can adapt to changes in climate via physiological, behavioral, infrastructural, and/or technological adaptation, and how such adaptation is quantified.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Middle Eastern temperature changes

The intense interest in the greenhouse effect has stimulated detailed studies of temperature records in North America, Europe, and Australia. In this investigation, the temperature records from the Middle East region (defined here as the land area extending from Morocco to Afghanistan) are investigated over the period 1950–1990. Results reveal a linear, statistically significant, temperature increase of 0.07°C per decade over the study area that may or may not be associated with the concurrent rise in equivalent carbon dioxide from approximately 350 ppm to 430 ppm. Seasonal analyses reveal that most of this increase has occurred in the spring season, moderate amounts of warming occurred in the summer and fall seasons, and virtually no warming has occurred in the winter months. An analysis of spatial controls on these temperature changes reveals a general cooling effect associated with the atmospheric sulfate levels and a warming effect associated with the degree of human-induced desertification. The results of this study may prove useful to policymakers in the Middle East who are confronted with many difficult decisions regarding highly interrelated global warming and energy issues.

Compilation and Discussion of Trends in Severe Storms in the United States: Popular Perception v. Climate Reality

The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and increase in near-surface air temperatures may have an impact on severe weather events in the United States. Output from some numerical modeling simulations suggests that the atmosphere over mid-latitude land areas could become more unstable in the future thereby supporting an increase in convective activity. However, despite the numerical simulation results, empiricists have been unable generally to identify significant increases in overall severe storm activity as measured in the magnitude and/or frequency of thunderstorms, hail events, tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter storm activity across the United States. There is evidence that heavy precipitation events have increased during the period of historical records, but for many other severe weather categories, the trends have been downward over the past half century. Damage from severe weather has increased over this period, but this upward trend disappears when inflation, population growth, population redistribution, and wealth are taken into account.