David M. Kennedy

Problem-Oriented Policing, Deterrence, and Youth Violence: An Evaluation of Boston's Operation Ceasefire

Operation Ceasefire is a problem-oriented policing intervention aimed at reducing youth homicide and youth firearms violence in Boston. It represented an innovative partnership between researchers and practitioners to assess the citys youth homicide problem and implement an intervention designed to have a substantial near-term impact on the problem. Operation Ceasefire was based on the “pulling levers” deterrence strategy that focused criminal justice attention on a small number of chronically offending gang-involved youth responsible for much of Bostons youth homicide problem. Our impact evaluation suggests that the Ceasefire intervention was associated with significant reductions in youth homicide victimization, shots-fired calls for service, and gun assault incidents in Boston. A comparative analysis of youth homicide trends in Boston relative to youth homicide trends in other major U.S. and New England cities also supports a unique program effect associated with the Ceasefire intervention.

Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs

A standard methodology in program evaluation is to use time series variation to compare pre- and post-program outcomes. However, when the timing of a break in a statistical relationship can be determined only by looking at the data, then the usual distribution of the test statistic which assumes exogenous timing of the break is no longer valid. Tests for parameter instability provide a flexible framework for testing a range of hypotheses commonly posed in program evaluation. These tests help pinpoint the timing of maximal break and provide a valid test of statistical significance. These tests are particularly useful when the start date of the intervention and any effect is unclear and possibly endogenous due to implementation lags. A test of parameter instability is applied to the evaluation of the Boston Gun Project, a comprehensive effort to reduce youth homicide in Boston in the mid 1990s. The dynamics of gang violence meant that no parts of the city could be used as reasonable comparison sites, and thus time series analysis is the only feasible means of evaluating the program impact. The statistical procedure identifies a statistically significant discontinuity in youth homicide incidents shortly after the intervention was unveiled. The intervention was associated with about a 60 percent decline in youth homicide.

Homicide in Minneapolis: Research for Problem Solving

Academics have long studied the basic dimensions of homicide, with Marvin E. Wolfgangs pioneering 1958 classic, Patterns in Criminal Homicide, defining the shape of criminological research on homicide. However, this research has generally contributed relatively little to practical homicide prevention strategies. Recently, problem-solving initiatives have undertaken homicide studies in particular cities with the goal of understanding homicide patterns and dynamics and crafting city-specific intervention strategies. One such initiative in Minneapolis found that a large component of the citys homicides was committed by and against chronic, gang-involved offenders. Particularly where youth homicide was concerned, the Minneapolis findings were very similar to recent findings regarding youth homicide in Boston. Based in part on these findings, a “pulling levers” strategy focused on deterring violent offending by gang members, and on reducing tensions between gangs, was designed and implemented. Although very preliminary, initial results from the Minneapolis intervention appear to be promising.

Underwriting the Risky Investment in Community Policing: What Social Science Should Be Doing to Evaluate Community Policing

AbstractAmerica appears to have committed itself to a profound shift in its core policing strategy, from “reform policing” to “community policing.” This shift has been propelled by a powerful historical critique of the reform strategy; by an operational movement in police departments; and by political forces. Still unanswered is the question of whether community policing “works”; that is, is a more valuable organizational strategy than the reform strategy. Social science and evaluation research are turning to this question. Implicit in the approach of community policing is a belief that the values of social science should guide social decision making; that this is a specialized task for trained outside evaluators; that “crime” is the most critical performance dimension; and that programs rather than organizations are the proper units of analysis. The authors argue that this framework may hinder the full development of community-policing departments as “learning organizations”; that dimensions other than c...

The illicit acquisition of firearms by youth and juveniles

Abstract Youth and juvenile gun violence has been linked to the availability of firearms. Scholars have suggested that, in order to reduce youth and juvenile gun violence, the illicit gun markets serving youth and juveniles must be disrupted. The question of whether illegal firearms markets serving youth and juveniles can be disrupted has been vigorously debated in the academic literature on firearms and firearms crime. One view is that illegal gun market disruption strategies are ineffective because virtually all crime guns are stolen or obtained from non-retail sources. Another view is that such strategies could be effective because illicit firearms markets involving the improper diversion of firearms from retail sources are an important source of guns for youth and juveniles. In partnership with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms, the authors review recent firearms trafficking investigations involving youth and juveniles. This research demonstrates that firearms are illegally diverted to youth and juveniles through a multitude of firearms trafficking pathways including unlicensed dealers, corrupt licensed dealers, and “straw” purchasers.

Youth Homicide in Boston: An Assessment of Supplementary Homicide Report Data

Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHRs) are the only nationally collected homicide data that include information on the victim, offender, and circumstances of each incident. Although SHR data are known to have important shortcomings, these data have been used extensively to describe the recent epidemic of youth homicide. This article compares SHR data on youth gun and knife victims submitted by the Boston Police Department to youth gun and knife homicide victim data collected as part of a problem-solving project designed to reduce youth violence in Boston. This article discusses the methods used to collect and compare these two sources of homicide data, presents the pictures of youth gun and knife homicide in Boston from the two data sources, analyzes the agreements and disagreements between the two pictures of youth homicide, and concludes with a discussion of steps that might be taken to improve the usefulness of SHR data in diagnosing local homicide problems.

Warping Time and Space: What It Really Takes to Do Action Research in Crime Control

Nearly 10 years ago, I moved to New York. At that time, I’d been studying policing for some 20 years and been actively and operationally engaged in actual crime control work—in action research—for a decade. My entry into that world had been heavily contingent and essentially backward: low-level field research for the high-level Harvard Executive Session on Policing had gotten me into some of the worst areas of some of the most dangerous cities in the United States at the height of the crack epidemic. The violence, fear, and disorder I saw there had spurred an obsessive focus on the worst public safety issues in the country’s most troubled neighborhoods: homicide, gangs, guns, drug markets, domestic violence, and the like. That, in turn, had led to a long focus on policing: what it was, how it worked, and especially how it didn’t work and might be made to work better.