David N. Collins

Climatic warming, glacier recession and runoff from Alpine basins after the Little Ice Age maximum

Abstract Records of discharge of rivers draining Alpine basins with between 0 and ~70% ice cover, in the upper Aare and Rhône catchments, Switzerland, for the period 1894–2006 have been examined together with climatic data for 1866–2006, with a view to assessing the effects on runoff from glacierized basins of climatic warming coupled with glacier recession following the Little Ice Age maximum. Annual runoff from ice-free basins reflects precipitation variations, rising from minima between 1880 and 1910 to maxima between the late 1960s and early 1980s. The more highly glacierized the basin, the more runoff mimicked mean May–September air temperature during two periods of warming. Runoff increased gradually from the 1900s, rapidly in the 1940s, before decreasing to the late 1970s. Rising runoff levels during the second warming period failed to exceed those attained during the first, despite higher summer temperatures. Although temperatures continued to rise, discharge from glacierized basins declined after reaching maxima in the late 1980s to early 1990s. In the first warming period, rising specific melt rates augmented by increasing precipitation opposed the impact of declining glacier area on runoff. Although melt continued to increase in the second period, enhanced melting (even in the exceptionally warm summer of 2003) appears to have been insufficient to offset reducing glacier surface area exposed to melt, low or reducing levels of precipitation, and increasing evaporation. Thus runoff from glacierized basins peaked in the late 1940s to early 1950s.

Snowmelt contributions to discharge of the Ganges

Himalayan headwaters supply large quantities of runoff derived from snowmelt and monsoon rainfall to the Ganges River. Actual snowmelt contribution to discharge in the Ganges remains conjectural under both present and future climatic conditions. As snowmelt is likely to be perturbed through climatic warming, four hydrological models, VIC, JULES, LPJmL and SWAT, appropriate for coupling with regional climate models, were used to provide a baseline estimate of snowmelt contribution to flow at seasonal and annual timescales. The models constrain estimates of snowmelt contributions to between 1% and 5% of overall basin runoff. Snowmelt is, however, significant in spring months, a period in which other sources of runoff are scarce.

Seasonal Development of Subglacial Drainage and Suspended Sediment Delivery to Melt Waters Beneath an Alpine Glacier

During the ablation seasons of 1983 and 1987, measurements of discharge and suspended sediment concentration of melt waters draining from Gornergletscher, Switzerland, were obtained at hourly intervals, permitting estimation of total daily sediment flux. Seasonal patterns of vanatlon in sediment flux are interpreted in terms of development of the subglacial drainage network. Variations in flux relate to contrasting temporal patterns of run-off, and the differing incidence of subglacial hydrological events in the 2 years. During such events, in which basal water pressure is raised , large areas of previously hydraulically isolated sub-sole are integrated with flow, releasing quantities of sediment from basal storage. Several types of event are identified, arising during periods of generally increasing discharge in the early ablation season, resulting from temporary blocking of subglacial passageways or from outbursts emptying a marginal, ice-dammed lake, and related to rain-induced floods . Flow spreads out over the glacier bed as pressure increases, suggesting that the basal drainage system consists of a diffuse network of many linked cavities rather than fewer major conduits, particularly at the start of the season. A distributed cavity system may be simplified to fewer conduits , dimensions of cavities may enlarge or the area of bed over which cavities are developing may be expanded to supply debris to melt waters during events. Different partial areas of sub-sole become progressively integrated with flow during sequences of hydrological events. Later in summer, melt waters are confined to basal areas within which only limited sediment remains available for acquisition .

Interaction between water pressure in the basal drainage system and discharge from an Alpine glacier before and during a rainfall-induced subglacial hydrological event

Combined measurements of meltwater discharge from the portal and of water level in a borehole drilled to the bed of Findelengletscher, Switzerland, were obtained during the later part of the 1993 ablation season. A severe storm, lasting from 22 through 24 September, produced at least 130 mm of precipitation over the glacier, largely as rain. The combined hydrological records indicate periods during which the basal drainage system became constricted and water storage in the glacier increased, as well as phases of channel growth. During the storm, water pressure generally increased as water backed up in the drainage network. Abrupt, temporary falls in borehole water level were accompanied by pulses in portal discharge. On 24 September, whilst borehole water level continued to rise, water started to escape under pressure with a resultant increase in discharge. As the drainage network expanded, a large amount of debris was flushed from a wide area of the bed. Progressive growth in channel capacity as discharge increased enabled stored water to drain and borehole water level to fall rapidly. Possible relationships between observed borehole water levels and water pressures in subglacial channels are influenced by hydraulic conditions at the base of the hole, distance between the hole and a channel, and the nature of the substrate.

Climatic variation and runoff from partially-glacierised Himalayan tributary basins of the Ganges.

Climate records for locations across the southern slope of the Himalaya between 77°E and 91°E were selected together with discharge measurements from gauging stations on rivers draining partially-glacierised basins tributary to the Ganges, with a view to assessing impacts of climatic fluctuations on year-to-year variations of runoff during a sustained period of glacier decline. The aims were to describe temporal patterns of variation of glaciologically- and hydrologically-relevant climatic variables and of river flows from basins with differing percentages of ice-cover. Monthly precipitation and air temperature records, starting in the mid-nineteenth century at high elevation sites and minimising data gaps, were selected from stations in the Global Historical Climatology Network and CRUTEM3. Discharge data availability was limited to post 1960 for stations in Nepal and at Khab in the adjacent Sutlej basin. Strengths of climate-runoff relationships were assessed by correlation between overlapping portions of annual data records. Summer monsoon precipitation dominates runoff across the central Himalaya. Flow in tributaries of the Ganges in Nepal fluctuated from year to year but the general background level of flow was usually maintained from the 1960s to 2000s. Flow in the Sutlej, however, declined by 32% between the 1970s and 1990s, reflecting substantially reduced summer precipitation. Over the north-west Ganges-upper Sutlej area, monsoon precipitation declined by 30-40% from the 1960s to 2000s. Mean May-September air temperatures along the southern slope of the central Himalayas dipped from the 1960s, after a long period of slow warming or sustained temperatures, before rising rapidly from the mid-1970s so that in the 2000s summer air temperatures reached those achieved in earlier warmer periods. There are few measurements of runoff from highly-glacierised Himalayan headwater basins; runoff from one of which, Langtang Khola, was less than that of the monsoon-dominated Narayani river, in which basin Langtang is nested.

Solute flux in meltwaters draining from a glacierized basin in the Karakoram mountains

Electrical conductivity of meltwaters in the Batura river which drains from the portal of Batura glacier in the Karakoram mountains was recorded continuously, together with stage, throughout an ablation season with the aim of estimating the annual total solute flux from the 56% glacier-covered basin. Through-time variations of meltwater cationic concentration were obtained from the electrical conductivity record using a rating curve established between sums of cations determined in periodically-collected samples of meltwater and electrical conductivity measured at the times of sampling. Hourly average cationic flux was then obtained as the product of cationic concentration and discharge, error arising as a result of inaccuracy in river gauging and use of the rating relationship. Electrical conductivity varied diurnally inversely with discharge, overall level decreasing as discharge increased in spring, continuing subdued through July and August irrespective of episodic discharge fluctuations. In contrast, solute flux mimicked discharge variation, low solute concentrations being offset by the volume of water flowing. Total annual cationic flux from Batura basin was 1.03 Meq ± ∼ 15%. Assuming almost all of the flux was derived subglacially, the solute flux from beneath Batura glacier was 2.64 ± 0.40 eq m -2 a -1 . These rates of cationic denudation, substantially higher than the continental average, are at the top end of the global range of reasonably-reliable estimates for other smaller glacierized basins. Carbonate lithology, high annual runoff, high sediment concentration in meltwaters, and long subglacial pathways account for the high solute flux from Batura glacier. Through longer residence times of meltwater in transit under ice and higher discharges, dissolution kinetics and flow couple to enhance solute fluxes from larger glaciers. Although subglacial chemical denudation in the Karakoram mountains is significant in carbon cycling at the continental scale, such carbonate dissolution probably contributes little to net consumption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Climatic Variation and Solute Concentration and Flux in Meltwaters Draining from an Alpine Glacier

Measurements of electrical conductivity and discharge ofmeltwaters in the Gornera, which drains from the 83%glacierised basin containing Gornergletscher, PennineAlps, Switzerland, were undertaken between May andSeptember in both 1979 and 1998. Discharge in theGornera was 43% higher in 1998, average air temperatureduring the ablation season being 2.1 °C warmer andpreceding winter precipitation 28% lower than in 1979. Mean electrical conductivity of meltwater in 1998 wasreduced by 40%. In the same 60 day period in 1998,however, solute flux was augmented by only 2% bycomparison with 1979. Year-to-year climatic variations,reflected in discharge variability, strongly affectsolute concentration in glacial meltwaters, but havelimited impact on solute flux. Climatic conditionstranslate into meltwater quality through inter-relationships between mineral reaction rates, subglacialresidence time in contact with sediment, and discharge. Annual variability in solute flux depends on the extentto which volume of flow can offset decline in soluteconcentration brought about by reducing residence time.

Climatic Variables and Mass Balance Of Alpine Glaciers During A Period Of Climate Fluctuation

Parameterisa tion of relationships between climate and glacier mass balance is of considerable importance in understanding and modelling how temporal variability in climate affects the quantity of perennial snow and ice stored in glaciers , and the runoff from glacierised areas. Influences of year-tayear variations in air temperatures are pertinent in the absence of long records of measured energy balance and in view of predictions of future climate scenarios in terms of temperature. Measurements of temperature and precipitation from several stations in Alpine valleys in the Rhone basin, Wallis, Switzerland have been analysed to indicate trends in climate from 1930 to 1988. Actual measurements of mass balance of Griesgletscher, ablation calculated from runoff and net accumulation estimated from totalising rain gauges for Findelengletscher and Gornergletscher beginning in the late 1960s, and runoff from Aletschgletscher since 1930, were taken as annual glaciological responses to climatic variation. Variables to represent climatic elements and interactions between precipitation and temperature were selec ted according to degree of correlation with glacier response variables, and climate-glacier response relationships were assessed by multiple regress ion . Subsets of the data representing the cooles t (t 972-81) and warmest (1943-52) decades were also analysed to indicate whether relationships amongst climatic variables and between climate and mass balance remain the same under contrasting climatic co nditions. Overall, mean summer air temperature variables for the months May through September and June th rough August provide the highest levels of explanation of variance of ablation and mass balance respectively (75-82%). Addition of a precIpItation variable (winter, spring or summer) in multiple regress ion increases explanation to a maximum of 91 %. Spring and summer precIpItation variables are negatively correlated with ablation . Positive degree days and temperature -s ummer snow functions provide alternatives to temperature . Event-based analysis of the coolest and warmest yea rs selected by rank order invokes high precipitation in May and low May-June temperatures and summer snowfall events as significant variables. Relationships between climatic variables indicate that warmer-than-average winters have higher precipitation, but at summer and annual time scales precipitation is slightly negativel y associated with temperature . At the decadal level , wa rmer periods appear to be influenced by increased frequency of continental anticyclonic conditions, in an area subject to both maritime and continental influences . These analyses of climatic variables indicate that summer energy inputs dominate glacier mass balance. Relationships between precIpItation and temperature are complex and were changeable during a fluctuation of about 1 0 over 40 years. Effects of a potentially warmer future on the form of precipitation in spring , summer and autumn are not clear, so estimates of changes of mass balance have been calculated for contrasting precipitation regimes.