David P. Brown

Measuring Market Power and the Efficiency of Alberta's Restructured Electricity Market: An Energy-Only Market Design

We measure the degree of market power execution and inefficiencies in Alberta’s restructured electricity market. Using hourly wholesale market data from 2008 to 2014, we find that firms exercise substantial market power in the highest demand hours with limited excess production capacity. The degree of market power execution in all other hours is low. Market inefficiencies are larger in the high demand hours and elevate production costs by 14% - 19% above the competitive benchmark. This reflects 2.35% of the average market price across all hours. A recent regulatory policy clarifies that certain types of unilateral market power execution is permitted in Alberta. We find evidence that suggests that strategic behavior changed after this announcement. Market power execution increased. We illustrate that the observed earnings are often sufficient to promote investment in natural gas based technologies. However, the rents from market power execution can exceed the estimated capacity costs for certain generation technologies. We demonstrate that the energy market profits in the presence of no market power execution are generally insufficient to promote investment in new generation capacity. This stresses the importance of considering both short-run and long-run performance measures.

Using Bayesian Imputation to Assess Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Pediatric Performance Measures

OBJECTIVE To analyze health care disparities in pediatric quality of care measures and determine the impact of data imputation. DATA SOURCES Five HEDIS measures are calculated based on 2012 administrative data for 145,652 children in two public insurance programs in Florida. METHODS The Bayesian Improved Surname and Geocoding (BISG) imputation method is used to impute missing race and ethnicity data for 42 percent of the sample (61,954 children). Models are estimated with and without the imputed race and ethnicity data. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Dropping individuals with missing race and ethnicity data biases quality of care measures for minorities downward relative to nonminority children for several measures. CONCLUSIONS These results provide further support for the importance of appropriately accounting for missing race and ethnicity data through imputation methods.

On the Design of Distributed Generation Policies: Are Common Net Metering Policies Optimal?

Electricity customers who install solar panels often are paid the prevailing retail price for the electricity they generate. We show that this rate of compensation typically is not optimal. A payment for distributed generation (w) that is below the retail price of electricity (r) often will induce the welfare-maximizing level of distributed generation (DG) when centralized generation and DG produce similar (pollution) externalities. However, w can optimally exceed r when DG entails a substantial reduction in externalities. We demonstrate that the optimal DG compensation policy varies considerably as industry conditions change, and that a requirement to equate w and r can reduce aggregate welfare substantially and can generate pronounced distributional effects.

Capacity Market Design: Motivation and Challenges in Alberta’s Electricity Market

Alberta’s electricity market is currently undergoing a period of substantial transition. The province should proceed with caution as it switches from an energy-only electricity market to a capacity market by 2021. Many other jurisdictions have already made the changeover and Alberta can learn from their experiences in order to avoid common mistakes and pitfalls that can arise with the deployment of a capacity market. There were growing concerns that the existing electricity market structure would not attract sufficient investment from conventional generation (e.g., natural gas) due to the increased penetration of zero marginal cost renewable generation. As a result, the Alberta government has chosen to transition to a capacity market. For consumers, a capacity market aims to ensure there is sufficient investment in new generation capacity to “keep the lights on�? and reduce price swings in the wholesale market. The capacity market will also help the province meet its goals for attracting investors and transitioning away from its dependence on coal-fired electricity generation. However, a switchover is not as simple as it sounds. In an energy-only market, firms are paid solely based on the provision of electricity in hourly wholesale markets. In capacity markets, electricity-generating firms are also paid for providing generation capacity, reflecting the potential to provide electricity at some point in the future. While capacity markets can help ensure there is a reliable supply of electricity, there are several challenges in the implementation of capacity markets. This paper discusses the motivation for the adoption of capacity markets, highlights challenges regulators face when implementing this market design in the context of Alberta, and summarizes the key trade-offs associated with energy-only versus capacity market designs. Relative to an energy-only market, a capacity market is more complex and requires that regulators specify numerous parameters that are essential to the functioning of the market. An essential, but often controversial component is the formulation of the capacity demand curve. A capacity demand curve for Alberta has to be carefully designed to deal with uncertainties in demand growth, given that Alberta’s electricity demand is closely interconnected with the ups and downs of global crude oil prices. Consideration must be given to the perspective of outside investors who – as in any area of economic interest – are wary about uncertainty. Political and regulatory uncertainty can undermine the success of a capacity market. This potential for investor hesitancy could result in incumbent firms, familiar with investing in Alberta, seizing a larger share of the market in an already historically concentrated environment. It is critical that policymakers establish a clear and well-defined trajectory for the future of Alberta’s electricity market design as a whole, not just its capacity market. The capacity market is not a panacea for the potential downfalls of an energy-only market. There are trade-offs associated with both energy-only and capacity market designs. Energy-only markets are arguably more economically efficient with cleaner price signals. However, with political constraints on electricity price-spikes and the expansion of renewables, there is more uncertainty in an energy-only market’s ability to promote investment. A capacity market provides more certainty in terms of generation resource adequacy, but at a potentially higher cost. Despite these tradeoffs, capacity markets are unambiguously more complex. This places a heavy burden on regulators to carefully and correctly set critical capacity market parameters that can have substantive impacts on prices and the associated economic signals.

Learning to SWIM

Mechanisms are described by which a model of conceptual reasoning about Go can learn new techniques from its own analyses of expert moves and assimilate expert advice.