David Picken

Height and construction costs of buildings in Hong Kong

The majority of buildings in Hong Kong come into the multi-storey category. The conventional wisdom of construction economics suggests that the cost of construction per square metre increases as buildings become higher. This paper summarizes earlier research on the subject and adopts a descriptive approach to present investigations into the cost-height relationship of buildings constructed in Hong Kong. Initial findings seem to suggest a different situation in Hong Kong - arguably the epitome of a ‘tall’ built environment. Possibly, there are factors concerning the design economics of tall buildings that are specific to those urban locations where they are more common. This point would suggest that a different set of criteria should be applied in the judgement of how height affects cost depending on the context and commonality of tall buildings in the location under consideration.

Granger Causality Among House Price and Macroeconomic Variables in Victoria

Abstract This study analyses the dynamic causality of four macroeconomic variables on house prices. The four macroeconomic variables have interrelationships with house prices in certain lagged terms, but these relationships are not always the same as the notions put forward in prior research. The relationships are detected to be unstable in the three observation periods. The instability of these relationships would cause difficulty in predicting house prices in the market, especially for policy makers and market participants.

An interdependence analysis of Australian house prices using variance decomposition

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse the interdependencies of the house price growth rates in Australian capital cities. Design/methodology/approach - A vector autoregression model and variance decomposition are introduced to estimate and interpret the interdependences among the growth rates of regional house prices in Australia. Findings - The results suggest the eight capital cities can be divided into three groups: Sydney and Melbourne; Canberra, Adelaide and Brisbane; and Hobart, Perth and Darwin. Originality/value - Based on the structural vector autoregression model, this research develops an innovative interdependence analysis approach of regional house prices based on a variance decomposition method.

EXPLORING TURNOVER INTENTION OF CONSTRUCTION MANAGERS IN CHINA

Employee turnover has been identified as one of the principal causes of poor performance, low competitiveness and high technology loss in the construction industry. Construction managers normally acquire knowledge and skills in construction methods and management techniques on the basis of long-term practice, and their turnover can significantly impact on a construction organisations survival and development. Therefore, there has been an increasing need to understand the major critical variables affecting the turnover of construction managers. The aims of this research were to determine these variables and use them to develop a quantitative turnover prediction model. A system framework was first developed to categorise all turnover variables into job satisfaction, organisation commitment and demographic variables and the turnover intention was measured in diverse directions. Based on an empirical study in Hubei province in China, the statistical results indicate that seven job satisfaction and organisational commitment variables dominate the turnover intentions of construction managers.

Risk analysis in cost planning and its effect on efficiency in capital cost budgeting

Builds on earlier work which reported on the experience of the Hong Kong Government in using risk analysis techniques in capital cost estimating. In 1993 the Hong Kong Government implemented a methodology for capital cost estimating using risk analysis (ERA) in its public works planning. This calculated amount replaces the pre‐1993 contingency allowance, which was merely a percentage addition on top of the base estimate of a project. Adopts a team approach to identify, classify and cost the uncertainties associated with a project. The sum of the average risk allowance for the identified risk events thus becomes the contingency. A study of the effect of ERA was carried out to compare the variability and consistency of the contingency estimates between non‐ERA and ERA projects. The preliminary results of a survey showed a highly significant difference in variation and consistency between these groups. This analysis indicates the successful use of the ERA method for public works projects to reduce unnecessary and exaggerated allowance for risk. However, the contingency allowance for ERA projects was also considered high. Adds data from the UK with descriptions of 41 private sector projects which fall into the non‐ERA category and reflect better performance in the determining of contingency allowances.

Height and construction costs of residential high-rise buildings in Shanghai

A widely recognized theme of construction economics suggests that the cost of construction per square meter increases as building height rises. However, over a number of years, research conducted regarding the height and cost issue has established a classic relationship between the two factors which can be represented by a U-shaped curve. This paper describes the study of the height-cost relationship of high-rise residential buildings in Shanghai in terms of the total construction cost and elemental costs while considering the context and commonality of buildings. This research was developed as an extension of the previous work, which examined data for buildings in Hong Kong. Initial findings indicate that the curves illustrating the relationships between height and cost of residential buildings in Shanghai and Hong Kong exhibit different profiles. The dissimilarities indicate that different sets of criteria should be applied in the judgment of height that affects cost in different locations. In terms of elemental costs, the findings suggest that there are differences in the way these costs react to changes in the building height.