David R. Hunter

Measuring General Aviation Pilot Judgment Using a Situational Judgment Technique

This paper reports on 2 studies that were conducted to develop and to evaluate a situational judgment test (SJT) for general aviation (GA) pilots. An initial 51-item test was constructed in which each item described an in-flight situation that required a decision on the part of the pilot and 4 alternative solutions to the situation. Subject matter experts were used to generate a scoring key from the alternatives that the experts recommended for a typical GA pilot. In Study 1, the test was administered in paper-and-pencil format to 246 participants. Results from that first study showed that the test had acceptable psychometric properties in terms of internal consistency and distribution. In Study 2, the test was administered to 467 participants over the Internet. Analyses resulted in the reduction of the test to 39 items, with an internal consistency reliability (coefficient alpha) of .747. Construct validation was accomplished through correlation with a measure of the number of times the participant had been involved in an accident or other hazardous aviation event. Pilots who had higher (better) scores on the SJT were found to have experienced fewer hazardous events, which was taken as supporting the construct validity of the test. Evaluation of mode of administration (paper-and-pencil vs. Internet) showed that the 2 forms were equivalent. These results suggest that the SJT has potential for use in the assessment of judgment or aeronautical decision making by GA pilots, and might be useful in the evaluation of training. The implications of the findings, regarding equivalence of the 2 administration formats, are discussed.

UNDERSTANDING HOW PILOTS MAKE WEATHER-RELATED DECISIONS

The decision-making strategies of pilots were examined using a linear modeling technique. Three hundred twenty-six American, 104 Norwegian, and 51 Australian pilots completed a scenario-based judgment task in which they assigned a comfort rating to each of 27 weather scenarios for each of three routes. These data were then used to develop individual regression equations, for each pilot, that described the information combination process used to assign the comfort ratings. The results demonstrate the use of a consistent weather decision model among pilots in these diverse groups. Intercorrelations of mean comfort levels for the 27 scenarios were very high, and each group demonstrated a similar pattern of information use. For each group, the compensatory models of information utilization were favored over noncompensatory models. The results suggest that pilots share a common model for the use of weather information and that training interventions may be equally effective across countries.

Situational and personal characteristics associated with adverse weather encounters by pilots

Weather conditions are significant hazards impacting the safe and efficient operation of aircraft. In this study, a large number of pilots were surveyed regarding weather events, and the circumstances associated with those events. Pilots completed a web-based questionnaire containing demographic questions, a risk perception scale, a hazardous events scale, and a pilot judgment scale. The pilots who reported a flight in which they penetrated weather without authorization or were concerned about the weather also completed 53 questions regarding their weather encounter. Usable data were obtained for 364 participants: 144 who reported flying into weather, 114 who experienced a flight on which weather was a concern, and 106 who reported no flights on which weather was entered or was a major concern. Significant differences were evident between the three groups on the measures of pilot judgment, personal minimums, and hazardous events where pilots flying into weather recorded the poorest scores (least conservative minimums, most hazardous events, and poorest judgment). Significant differences were also noted between the two weather groups for a number of circumstances surrounding the events. Compared to the in-weather group, pilots in the near-weather group had acquired greater instrument hours, were older, and were more likely to have an instrument rating. Their aircraft were more likely to have an autopilot. More pilots in the in-weather group (28%) reported that they would be much more careful in the future regarding weather, compared to 17% of the near-weather group. The study provides data not previously obtained on both the situational and personal characteristics that are related to involvement in different degrees of weather-related encounters. These data should promote a better understanding of these individuals and the situations in which they are involved, and should inform future research and intervention efforts.

Safety Locus of Control and Accident Involvement Among Army Aviators

In this study we assessed the relationship between locus of control (LOC) and accident involvement among U.S. Army aviators. Two scales reflecting internality or externality were created based on a priori assignment of items. Items were also subjected to principal components analysis, and 6 empirical scales were identified from that analysis. Correlations were computed between the 2 a priori scales, the 6 empirical scales identified by the principal components analysis, involvement in hazardous events, and recent and total career accident involvement. Several of the LOC measures correlated significantly with recent accident involvement. However, only 1 measure was correlated with career accident involvement. Applications of the results in the development of safety training interventions and the evaluation of training programs are discussed.

Hazardous Events and Accident Involvement by Military and Civilian Pilots

The Hazardous Events Scale (HES), a measure of involvement in potentially dangerous situations in aviation that do not lead to accidents, has been used as a surrogate for actual accident involvement in studies of risk taking and hazardous attitudes. However, no correlation between the HES and actual accident involvement has previously been published. In this research effort we developed an Army-specific version of the HES and administered it, over the course of 4 separate surveys, to a large sample of U.S. Army aviators. We then computed Army-HES scores that we correlated with self-reported accident involvement. We also reanalyzed data from 4 separate civilian studies in which the civilian version of the HES was administered to compute a correlation between HES and self-reported accident involvement. We hypothesized that a positive correlation would be obtained between the HES and accident involvement. That hypothesis was supported by the results. Positive, significant correlations were obtained for the Army sample (r = .15), and each of the 4 civilian studies (r = .23, r = .32, r = .24, r = .30) between the HES and self-reported accident involvement. The use of the HES as a surrogate measure for accident involvement and indicator of pilot accident risk for both individual pilots and organizations is discussed.

Classification and prediction of pilot weather encounters: A discriminant function analysis

INTRODUCTION Flight into adverse weather continues to be a significant hazard for General Aviation (GA) pilots. Weather-related crashes have a significantly higher fatality rate than other GA crashes. Previous research has identified lack of situational awareness, risk perception, and risk tolerance as possible explanations for why pilots would continue into adverse weather. However, very little is known about the nature of these encounters or the differences between pilots who avoid adverse weather and those who do not. METHODS Visitors to a web site described an experience with adverse weather and completed a range of measures of personal characteristics. RESULTS The resulting data from 364 pilots were carefully screened and subject to a discriminant function analysis. Two significant functions were found. The first, accounting for 69% of the variance, reflected measures of risk awareness and pilot judgment while the second differentiated pilots in terms of their experience levels. The variables measured in this study enabled us to correctly discriminate between the three groups of pilots considerably better (53% correct classifications) than would have been possible by chance (33% correct classifications). CONCLUSIONS The implications of these findings for targeting safety interventions are discussed.

Research Methods and Statistics

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