David R. McCready

Clinical behavior of untreated axillary nodes after local treatment for primary breast cancer

AbstractBackground: The purpose of this study was to examine the rate of axillary failure in patients with primary breast cancer treated without axillary dissection or radiation and to determine what factors may be associated with axillary failure.nMethods: We studied 112 patients with invasive breast cancer treated for primary disease with breast-conserving surgery without axillary dissection or radiation to the breast or axilla, accrued between 1977 and 1986. Data for these patients were prospectively gathered for a research database and reviewed retrospectively to determine axillary failure. The effects of age, tumor size, estrogen receptor (ER) status, progesterone receptor (PgR) status, histologic grade, nuclear grade, and tumor emboli on time to axillary failure were examined.nResults: The median follow-up was 9.6 years. There were 26 axillary recurrences, resulting in a 10-year actuarial nodal control rate of 72%. Patients with nodal failure proceeded to axillary dissection with minimal morbidity. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, only tumor size was significantly associated with axillary failure (p=0.04 andp=0.06, respectively).nConclusions: This study demonstrates a significant effect of tumor size on axillary failure and a reasonable rate of local control in small tumors. Further research should examine the utility of axillary dissection in women with small breast cancers.

Factors affecting distant disease-free survival for primary invasive breast cancer: use of a log-normal survival model.

Background: Invasive breast cancer is a frequently diagnosed disease that now comes with an ever expanding array of therapeutic management options. We assessed the effects of 20 prognostic factors in a multivariate context.Methods: We accrued clinical data for 156 consecutive patients with stage 1–3 primary invasive breast cancer who were diagnosed in 1989–1990 at the Henrietta Banting Breast Center, and followed to 1995. There is complete follow-up for 91% of patients (median follow-up of 4.9 years). The event of interest was distant recurrence (for distant disease-free survival, DFS). We used Cox and log-normal step-wise regression to assess the multivariate effects of the following factors on DFS: age, tumor size, nodal status, histology, tumor and nuclear grade, lymphovascular and perineural invasion (LVPI), ductal carcinoma-in-situ (DCIS) type, DCIS extent, DCIS at edge of tumor, ER and PgR, ERICA, adjuvant systemic therapy, ki67, S-phase, DNA index, neu oncogene, and pRb.Results: There was strong evidence against the Cox assumption of proportional hazards for nodal status, and nodal status was not in the Cox step-wise model. With step-wise log-normal regression, a large tumor size (P < .001), positive nodes (P 5 .002), high nuclear grade (P 5 .01), presence of LVPI (P 5 .03), and infiltrating duct carcinoma not otherwise specified (P 5 .05) were associated with a reduction in DFS.Conclusions: For nodal status, there was strong evidence against the Cox assumption of proportional hazards, and it was not included in the Cox model although it was in the log-normal model. Only traditional factors were included in the step-wise models. Thus, this statistical management of prognostic markers in breast cancer appears to be very important.

Factors associated with local breast cancer recurrence after lumpectomy alone

AbstractBackground: The purpose was to determine the rate of local breast relapse in patients with breast cancer uniformly treated with partial mastectomy but without postoperative radiotherapy and without systemic adjuvant therapy. We also systematically examined the factors associated with local recurrence to determine whether a low-risk subgroup existed.nMethods: A retrospective review of a prospectively followed (median, 8 years) cohort of 293 patients was performed. The end-point was ipsilateral local breast cancer recurrence. The patients age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen and progesterone receptor status, histology, and tumor and nuclear grade were studied, as were the presence and amount of carcinoma in situ and the presence of tumor emboli using univariate Kaplan-Meier and Cox step-wise multivariate analyses.nResults: The overall local relapse rate was 26% (77 recurrences). Univariate factors significantly associated with decreased local relapse included older age, negative nodes, small tumor size, positive estrogen receptor status, and absence of tumor emboli. Significant multivariate variables were age, nodal status, estrogen receptor status, absence of comedo carcinoma in situ, and tumor emboli. A low-risk subgroup of 66 patients was defined with a 6% 10-year local recurrence rate.nConclusion: Important patient and tumor variables associated with local breast cancer relapse after breast-conserving surgery can define a low-risk subgroup.

A comparison of all-subset Cox and accelerated failure time models with Cox step-wise regression for node-positive breast cancer

SummaryClinical studies usually employ Cox step-wise regression for multivariate investigations of prognostic factors. However, commercial packages now allow the consideration of accelerated failure time models (exponential, Weibull, log logistic, and log normal), if the underlying Cox assumption of proportional hazards is inappropriate. All-subset regressions are feasible for all these models.We studied a group of 378 node positive primary breast cancer patients accrued at the Henrietta Banting Breast Centre of Womens College Hospital, University of Toronto, between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1986. 85% of these patients had complete prognostic factor data for multivariate analysis, and 96% of the patients were followed to 1990. There was evidence of marked departures from the proportional hazards assumption with two prognostic factors, number of positive nodes and adjuvant systemic therapy. The data strongly supported the log normal model. The all-subset regressions indicated that three models were similarly good. The variables 1) number of positive nodes, 2) tumour size, and 3) adjuvant systemic therapy were included in all three models along with one of three biochemical receptor variables 1) ER, 2) combined receptor (ER- PgR-; ER+ PgR-; ER- PgR+; ER+ PgR+; or 3) PgR.Better multivariate modeling was achieved by using quantitative prognostic factors, a check for appropriate underlying model-type, and all-subset variable selection. All-subset regressions should be considered for routine use with the many new prognostic factors currently under evaluation; it is very possible that there may not be a single model that is substantially better than others with the same number of variables.

Pathologic Characteristics of Breast Cancer that Predict for Local Recurrence After Lumpectomy Alone

▪Abstract: Breast conservation surgery (BCS) plus irradiation has been shown to be equivalent to mastectomy in controlling ipsilateral breast cancer recurrence. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the factors that determine the rate of local recurrence in a group of patients treated with partial mastectomy without postoperative radiation, adjuvant hormonal therapy, or chemotherapy. We also assess the role of standard pathologic features, specifically lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in identifying high‐ and low‐risk subsets of patients. We have a cohort of 293 patients treated with partial mastectomy followed prospectively for a median of 8 years. Data collected included patient’s age, tumor size, tumor morphology, tumor grade, the extent of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), the presence of LVI, lymph node status, and hormone receptors. Statistical analyses carried out were Kaplan–Meier plots with Wilcoxon (Peto–Prentice) test statistics for univariate analysis and Cox stepwise regression for multivariate analysis; the end point was local recurrence. The relapse rate in this cohort was 26%. In univariate analysis the significant factors associated with prolonged disease‐free survival included older age, negative nodes, positive estrogen receptor (ER) status, and absence of LVI. Small tumor size was significant only in the univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, absence of comedocarcinoma entered the model in addition to the other variables. If the variables are stratified, a group of 66 patients with 6% local recurrence rate was identified. These were node‐negative women 50 years of age with no LVI, no comedo DCIS, and ER‐positive tumors. This study clearly indicates the important role of pathologic parameters in assessing the risk of recurrence.u2003▪

Assessment of treatment for patients with primary ductal carcinoma in situ in the breast

AbstractBackground: Current mammographic technology has resulted in increased detection of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). It is necessary to assess which patients presenting with DCIS are good candidates for breast conservation and which of these patients should receive adjuvant radiation.nMethods: We accrued clinical data for 124 patients with a primary diagnosis of DCIS from 1979 through 1994. Primary therapy was a mastectomy for 18 patients, and a lumpectomy for 106 patients. Only 18 of the latter group of patients received adjuvant radiotherapy. For the 88 lumpectomy-alone patients (median follow-up, 5.2 years), we evaluated the effects of clinical (age and initial presentation) and pathologic (nuclear grade, architecture, parenchymal involvement, calcifications, and measured margins) factors on recurrence of DCIS or the development of invasive breast cancer.nResults: Patients who underwent lumpectomy with or without adjuvant radiotherapy (median follow-up, 5.0 years) were significantly more likely to have recurrence of DCIS (P=.05) than those who underwent mastectomy (median follow-up, 6.7 years): 18% (19/106) versus 0% (0/18), respectively; lumpectomy-alone patients experienced a 19% (17/88) rate of DCIS recurrence. All recurrent DCIS was ipsilateral. For lumpectomy-alone patients, the factors associated with ipsilateral recurrence of DCIS were extent of involvement of the parenchyma (P=.01, for univariate;P=.07, for multivariate) and initial presentation (P=.05, for univariate;P=.07, for multivariate). Eleven lumpectomy-alone patients developed invasive breast cancer (6 ipsilateral, 5 contralateral); none of the 18 lumpectomy patients who received adjuvant radiation developed invasive disease. None of the factors investigated, including primary surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy, were associated with a significant effect on the development of invasive disease.nConclusions: Longer follow-up is required to determine if the benefits of either mastectomy or radiotherapy following lumpectomy persist. There is a suggestion that patients under 40 years of age or women who present with nipple discharge might be considered for either adjuvant radiotherapy following lumpectomy or a simple mastectomy.

Alternative multivariate modelling for time to local recurrence for breast cancer patients receiving a lumpectomy alone

Certain prognostic factors (patient and/or tumour characteristics) may be associated with low (or high) risk for local recurrence. Patients with these characteristics could be candidates for less (or more) adjuvant therapy or a less (or more) aggressive surgical approach. However, the assessment of many factors can be problematic with the standard multivariate technique-a Cox proportional hazards model and step-wise regression. We compared the results obtained when using a Cox model with those from four alternative models (exponential, Weibull, log logistic and log Normal) in step-wise and all subset regressions. Between 1977 and 1986, 293 primary invasive breast cancer patients were treated at the Henrietta Banting Breast Centre with a lumpectomy with or without an axillary dissection, and with no postoperative adjuvant therapy. The variables considered were age, lymph node status, tumour size, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PgR), histologic grade, nuclear grade, carcinoma in situ (CIS), amount of CIS, and presence of tumour emboli. With follow-up to 1991, nodal status was not found to be included in the step-wise Cox model, although it was in the step-wise exponential, Weibull and log Normal models, and in the best all subset models for all model types. The variables tumour emboli, ER, age, CIS and nodal status were consistently included in the best all subset regressions, regardless of model type. In the 1993 follow-up, the variables in the step-wise Cox model were tumour emboli, ER, age, CIS and nodal status. The multivariate consideration of all possible subsets of regression variables led to an earlier indication of the importance of nodal status, while the data strongly supported accelerated failure time models over the Cox model.

The Henrietta Banting Breast Centre database : a model for clinical research utilizing a hospital-based inception cohort

The cohort study design has been used successfully in clinical cancer research. Cohorts, however, are valuable only if they produce results which are valid and generalizable. Some hospital-based inception cohorts satisfy both these requirements and may thus be useful research tools. The development of one such hospital-based cohort, the Henrietta Banting Breast Centre database, is described. This cohort is composed of 1097 women diagnosed with primary breast cancer at Womens College Hospital, Toronto, from January 1977 through December 1986. Details of diagnostic procedures, pathology, treatment, dates and sites of recurrence, and date of death are available on 96% of women. By comparison with published series and with the Ontario Cancer Registry, we have demonstrated validity and generalizability. A major advantage is the ready availability of paraffin tissue blocks on virtually all cases, facilitating analyses of the prognostic importance of specific biologic variables and immunocytochemical hormone assays. Other completed studies and future uses of the cohort are described.

The standardization of estrogen receptors

Tumour estrogen receptor (ER) status may determine the medical treatment of a patient with breast cancer; yet inter-laboratory results can vary markedly, particularly when absolute cut-offs in fmol/mg cytosol protein are used. The use of standardized log units is proposed to permit greater inter-laboratory comparability. We have assessed the biochemical ER values using the dextran-coated charcoal method with three data sets, two quality control (QC) sets for Ontario laboratories and a data set with values for 184 primary breast cancer patients seen at Womens College Hospital (WCH) between 1985 and 1986. The distributions for all the raw data were skewed toward the lower end of the range; a log transformation improved the symmetry of the distributions. There was marked inter-laboratory variation in the QC data, and standardized log units greatly reduced this variability. The WCH data had similar differentiation by tumour size and nodal status with both the raw data and standardized log units. However, standardized log units provided more consistent evidence of an association between ER and immunohistochemical ERICA. The standardized log units provide quantitative receptor values suitable for multi-centre research, for future work with clinical outcomes, and for the daily management of patients.