David Rissik

Marine reserves help coastal ecosystems cope with extreme weather

Natural ecosystems have experienced widespread degradation due to human activities. Consequently, enhancing resilience has become a primary objective for conservation. Nature reserves are a favored management tool, but we need clearer empirical tests of whether they can impart resilience. Catastrophic flooding in early 2011 impacted coastal ecosystems across eastern Australia. We demonstrate that marine reserves enhanced the capacity of coral reefs to withstand flood impacts. Reserve reefs resisted the impact of perturbation, whilst fished reefs did not. Changes on fished reefs were correlated with the magnitude of flood impact, whereas variation on reserve reefs was related to ecological variables. Herbivory and coral recruitment are critical ecological processes that underpin reef resilience, and were greater in reserves and further enhanced on reserve reefs near mangroves. The capacity of reserves to mitigate external disturbances and promote ecological resilience will be critical to resisting an increased frequency of climate-related disturbance.

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.

Beyond hydrography: Daily ichthyoplankton variability and short term oceanographic events on the Sydney continental shelf

Abstract Surface ichthyoplankton concentrations along a shore-normal transect across the Sydney continental shelf and upper slope changed between three replicate nights in January and April of 1994. Over 70 families of fish were recorded, which, during January, included: Myctophidae (49% of individuals), Carangidae (14%), Gonostomatidae (11%) and Pomacentridae (8%); and during April included: Gonorhynchidae (43%), Myctophidae (10%), Berycidae (11%) and Serranidae (6%). Multidimensional scaling analysis identified inshore and offshore communities, which nightly moved between the nearshore and mid-shelf stations. During January no distinct near-surface water masses could be identified from the temperature-salinity data, although the shelf waters were under the influence of forcing by the local wind stress and the East Australian Current. Good agreement between the cross-shore transport in the near-surface layer and the temporal variability of the icthyoplankton was nevertheless found. The sampling during April was performed during a period of relatively steady oceanographic conditions, and two water masses were identified from the hydrographic data. Temporal ichthyoplankton variability at any station was correspondingly less during the April period and stable inshore and offshore communities were identified, that shifted with characteristic water masses. The results presented in this paper demonstrate that the large variance often associated with ichthyoplankton distribution within a similar water mass may be interpreted by the dynamics in cross-shelf flows, which has implications for the selection of control sites used when studying environmental impacts of coastal outfalls.

Flow events drive patterns of phytoplankton distribution along a river-estuary-bay continuum

Freshwater flow events drive phytoplankton productivity in subtropical coastal river systems. However, few studies have the necessary temporal and spatial resolution to fully characterise the effect of events on the distribution of phytoplankton across the full river-estuary-bay continuum. The present study characterised the response of phytoplank- ton to high-flow events in an Australian subtropical system; and identified the primary drivers of this response. During high-flow events, the concentration of phytoplankton chlorophyll a (Chl a) initially declined in the estuary, a response primarily driven by the shortened water-residence time.In the bay, phytoplanktongrowth in the near-shore zone was light limited;however,nutrientsstimulatedphytoplanktongrowthontheseawardedgeoftheriverplume.Duringthepost-high- flow phase, the concentration of Chl a in the freshwater reaches peaked downstream, where catchment-derived nutrients accumulated. In the estuary, elevated nutrient loads stimulated phytoplankton growth upstream and downstream of the light-limited zone. In the bay, nitrogen availability declined, and Chl a declined with an increasing distance offshore. The phytoplankton response to events documented in the present study can be used to identify when and where phytoplankton in subtropical systems may be strongly influenced by changes in the magnitude of nutrient, sediment and freshwater loads associated with high-flow events which result from anthropogenic pressures within the catchment.

Feeding in a larval fish assemblage: the nutritional significance of an estuarine plume front

Gut fullness of larval fishes was used to determine the nutritional significance of an estuarine plume front off Botany Bay, SE Australia, on three days in March/April 1990. Fishes were captured in three different water masses (estuarine plume, front and shelf water), each separated by ≃ 200 m, using a 260 μm mesh purse-seine net. Overall, the gut-fullness index (GFI) of 260 fish larvae combined from eight families (Gerreidae, Mugilidae, Mullidae, Sparidae, Blenniidae, Kyphosidae, Monodactylidae, Pomacentridae), was significantly greater in the plume and front water on two of the sampling occasions, but no difference was detected on the third occasion. Trends in GFI among families were inconsistent with respect to the front. The mugilid (Liza argentea) fed equally and abundantly in all water masses (gut fullness>90%), while the kyphosid (Kyphosus spp.) had a significantly greater GFI in the plume compared to the shelf water. In general, the response of GFI to the front varied between dates and amongst taxa. Diet analysis showed that mugilids selected for copepod nauplii within the plume and shelf water [alpha selectivity index (ASI) of (0.22 to 0.98)] and for harpacticoid copepods within the front (ASI=0.92), representing characteristic diets identified by canonical discriminant analysis. Kyphosids selected positively for copepod nauplii in all three water masses on both occasions (ASI>0.96). In general, diets of larval fish were taxon-specific, and responded variably to the three habitats. Comparison of diets across water masses was complicated by the large number of families, which rarely occurred in all water masses. The nutritional significance of an estuarine plume front varies between species of larval fish, and there are no obvious trends that can be applied to the larval fish community in general.

Policy considerations for managing wetlands under a changing climate

Drawing on the experience and lessons of wetland researchers and managers in Australia and New Zealand, we examined the implications of climate change for wetland policy and management, and identified potential adaptation responses and the information needed to support these. First, we considered wetland vulnerability to climate change, focusing on wetland exposure and sensitivity. We then outlined the existing policy context for dealing with climate change, with an emphasis on the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. We then considered how the objectives and targets for wetland management can be set in the face of climate change, how management can be adapted to climate change given the uncertainties involved, and how we can monitor and evaluate wetland condition in the face of climate change. We concluded with a set of principles to guide adaptation of wetland conservation and management policy to climate change.

Optimising land-sea management for inshore coral reefs

Management authorities seldom have the capacity to comprehensively address the full suite of anthropogenic stressors, particularly in the coastal zone where numerous threats can act simultaneously to impact reefs and other ecosystems. This situation requires tools to prioritise management interventions that result in optimum ecological outcomes under a set of constraints. Here we develop one such tool, introducing a Bayesian Belief Network to model the ecological condition of inshore coral reefs in Moreton Bay (Australia) under a range of management actions. Empirical field data was used to model a suite of possible ecological responses of coral reef assemblages to five key management actions both in the sea (e.g. expansion of reserves, mangrove & seagrass restoration, fishing restrictions) and on land (e.g. lower inputs of sediment and sewage from treatment plants). Models show that expanding marine reserves (a ‘marine action’) and reducing sediment inputs from the catchments (a ‘land action’) were the most effective investments to achieve a better status of reefs in the Bay, with both having been included in >58% of scenarios with positive outcomes, and >98% of the most effective (5th percentile) scenarios. Heightened fishing restrictions, restoring habitats, and reducing nutrient discharges from wastewater treatment plants have additional, albeit smaller effects. There was no evidence that combining individual management actions would consistently produce sizeable synergistic until after maximum investment on both marine reserves (i.e. increasing reserve extent from 31 to 62% of reefs) and sediments (i.e. rehabilitating 6350 km of waterways within catchments to reduce sediment loads by 50%) were implemented. The method presented here provides a useful tool to prioritize environmental actions in situations where multiple competing management interventions exist for coral reefs and in other systems subjected to multiple stressor from the land and the sea.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

A database of marine phytoplankton abundance, biomass and species composition in Australian waters

There have been many individual phytoplankton datasets collected across Australia since the mid 1900s, but most are unavailable to the research community. We have searched archives, contacted researchers, and scanned the primary and grey literature to collate 3,621,847 records of marine phytoplankton species from Australian waters from 1844 to the present. Many of these are small datasets collected for local questions, but combined they provide over 170 years of data on phytoplankton communities in Australian waters. Units and taxonomy have been standardised, obviously erroneous data removed, and all metadata included. We have lodged this dataset with the Australian Ocean Data Network (http://portal.aodn.org.au/) allowing public access. The Australian Phytoplankton Database will be invaluable for global change studies, as it allows analysis of ecological indicators of climate change and eutrophication (e.g., changes in distribution; diatom:dinoflagellate ratios). In addition, the standardised conversion of abundance records to biomass provides modellers with quantifiable data to initialise and validate ecosystem models of lower marine trophic levels.

Co-designing adaptation decision support: meeting common and differentiated needs

As exposure to climate change increases, there is a growing need for effective adaptation decision support products across public, private and community sectors and at all scales (local, regional, national, international). Numerous guidance products have been developed, but it is not clear to what extent they meet end-user needs, especially as development has been fragmented and many products lack continuing support, learning and improvement. It is timely to address the development of more intentional and coordinated support strategies that draw on the experience to date and what end-users themselves say they need. We have taken such an approach to co-design future support strategies for Australia at national and sub-national (sectoral, locational and/or jurisdictional) levels. Several supporting frameworks are introduced to assist in the clarification of common needs (e.g. incorporation of leading adaptation practices) versus differentiated needs across sectors (e.g. a ‘decision entry points’ framework) and individual organisations (e.g. a ‘decision domains’ framework). The collaborative process also identified key principles that should underpin national and sub-national support strategies and product development. A comparison with international experience indicates that the findings and principles should also be relevant to other nations, and to international and sub-national agencies developing adaptation support strategies and products.