David Schimel

Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Significance Feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric CO2 concentrations contribute the second-largest uncertainty to projections of future climate. These feedbacks, acting over huge regions and long periods of time, are extraordinarily difficult to observe and quantify directly. We evaluated in situ, atmospheric, and simulation estimates of the effect of CO2 on carbon storage, subject to mass balance constraints. Multiple lines of evidence suggest significant tropical uptake for CO2, approximately balancing net deforestation and confirming a substantial negative global feedback to atmospheric CO2 and climate. This reconciles two approaches that have previously produced contradictory results. We provide a consistent explanation of the impacts of CO2 on terrestrial carbon across the 12 orders of magnitude between plant stomata and the global carbon cycle. Feedbacks from the terrestrial carbon cycle significantly affect future climate change. The CO2 concentration dependence of global terrestrial carbon storage is one of the largest and most uncertain feedbacks. Theory predicts the CO2 effect should have a tropical maximum, but a large terrestrial sink has been contradicted by analyses of atmospheric CO2 that do not show large tropical uptake. Our results, however, show significant tropical uptake and, combining tropical and extratropical fluxes, suggest that up to 60% of the present-day terrestrial sink is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2. This conclusion is consistent with a validated subset of atmospheric analyses, but uncertainty remains. Improved model diagnostics and new space-based observations can reduce the uncertainty of tropical and temperate zone carbon flux estimates. This analysis supports a significant feedback to future atmospheric CO2 concentrations from carbon uptake in terrestrial ecosystems caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This feedback will have substantial tropical contributions, but the magnitude of future carbon uptake by tropical forests also depends on how they respond to climate change and requires their protection from deforestation.

Biological aspects of constructing volatile organic compound emission inventories

Abstract The: emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation is subject to numerous biological controls. Past inventories have relied heavily on empirical models which are limited in their ability to simulate the response of organisms to short- and long-term changes in their growth environment. In this review we consider the principal biochemical, physiological and ecological controls over VOC emission with specific reference to how such controls can be included in ecosystem-level inventories. A distinction is made between longer-term biological controls over basal VOC emission rates (rates determined under a standard set of environmental conditions) and instantaneous biological and environmental controls over instantaneous VOC emission rates (rates determined at the prevailing, instantaneous set of environmental conditions). Emphasis is placed on the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes. Isoprene emission occurs essentially without a leaf reservoir and is tightly linked to instantaneous photosynthetic metabolism and the activity of isoprene synthase, the enzyme that underlies isoprene production. At present, there are still large uncertainties about which of these controls dominates isoprene emission rate. Ecosystem-level inventories of isoprene emission would be best handled through consideration of (1) the early season induction of isoprene emission, (2) seasonal and spatial variability in light, nitrogen and water availability and their influences on the basal emission rate, and (3) the influence of instantaneous changes in light and temperature on the basal emission rate. Monoterpene emission occurs from a large leaf reservoir, is uncoupled from instantaneous controls over biosynthesis, and is likely linked to whole-plant carbon allocation patterns. Because of the well-defined role of monoterpenes as herbivore deterrents and their linkage to plant carbon balance, there is promise for ecosystem-level inventories based on biological resource allocation models and evolutionary cost-benefit models. Biological sources for several other VOCs have been identified, including methanol, methylbutenol, hexenol, acetone, and formic and acetic acids. However, the controls over these emissions have yet to be determined, and there is no current basis for mechanistic inventory development. From the studies reviewed here we conclude that the incorporation of mechanistic biological controls in future VOC inventories will improve their capacity to predict emissions across complex ecological gradients.

Observing terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle from space.

Terrestrial ecosystem and carbon cycle feedbacks will significantly impact future climate, but their responses are highly uncertain. Models and tipping point analyses suggest the tropics and arctic/boreal zone carbon-climate feedbacks could be disproportionately large. In situ observations in those regions are sparse, resulting in high uncertainties in carbon fluxes and fluxes. Key parameters controlling ecosystem carbon responses, such as plant traits, are also sparsely observed in the tropics, with the most diverse biome on the planet treated as a single type in models. We analyzed the spatial distribution of in situ data for carbon fluxes, stocks and plant traits globally and also evaluated the potential of remote sensing to observe these quantities. New satellite data products go beyond indices of greenness and can address spatial sampling gaps for specific ecosystem properties and parameters. Because environmental conditions and access limit in situ observations in tropical and arctic/boreal environments, use of space-based techniques can reduce sampling bias and uncertainty about tipping point feedbacks to climate. To reliably detect change and develop the understanding of ecosystems needed for prediction, significantly, more data are required in critical regions. This need can best be met with a strategic combination of remote and in situ data, with satellite observations providing the dense sampling in space and time required to characterize the heterogeneity of ecosystem structure and function.

Monitoring plant functional diversity from space

The world’s ecosystems are losing biodiversity fast. A satellite mission designed to track changes in plant functional diversity around the globe could deepen our understanding of the pace and consequences of this change and how to manage it.

The future of evapotranspiration: Global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.

Covariance of biophysical data with digital topographic and land use maps over the FIFE site

Sampling design is critical in locating ground sampling stations for large-scale climatological field experiments. In the stratified sampling design adopted for the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE), the study region was stratified into 14 different terrain units based on land use/land cover and topographic variables that were hypothesized to have a strong influence on surface biophysical properties. Digital terrain maps were produced to facilitate ground data integration and extrapolation. This paper describes the biophysical stratification of the FIFE site, implementation of the stratification using geographic information system (GIS) techniques, and validation of the stratification with respect to field measurements of biomass, soil moisture, Bowen ratio (/3), and the greenness vegetation index (GVI) derived from thematic mapper satellite data. Maps of burning and topographic position were significantly associated with variation in biomass, GVI, and /3. The effects of burning and topography were stronger for the Konza Prairie Long-Term Ecological Research (KPLTER) site than for the rest of the FIFE site, where cattle grazing was a major confounding effect. The stratified design did not appreciably change the estimated site-wide means for surface climate parameters but accounted for between 25 and 45% of the sample variance depending on the variable. The design was weakened by undersampling of several strata, by high within-station variance in soil and vegetation data, and by failure to account for diverse land management practices on private lands surrounding KPLTER. We recommend that future large-scale climatological studies include the development of a digital terrain data base well in advance of field campaigns and that multitemporal imagery be used to obtain preliminary estimates of spatial and temporal variance in surface biophysical properties. We also recommend that sampling for the most heterogeneous biophysical variables be conducted in the framework of a multistage estimation scheme incorporating remotely sensed data. Although this means that ground-based estimation of regional fluxes cannot be made independent of aircraft or satellite data, it may well be the only means of obtaining reliable estimates of these variables over large areas.

OCO-2 advances photosynthesis observation from space via solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

INTRODUCTION Reliable estimation of gross primary production (GPP) from landscape to global scales is pivotal to a wide range of ecological research areas, such as carbon-climate feedbacks, and agricultural applications, such as crop yield and drought monitoring. However, measuring GPP at these scales remains a major challenge. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a signal emitted directly from the core of photosynthetic machinery. SIF integrates complex plant physiological functions in vivo to reflect photosynthetic dynamics in real time. The advent of satellite SIF observation promises a new era in global photosynthesis research. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF product is a serendipitous but critically complementary by-product of OCO-2’s primary mission target—atmospheric column CO2 (XCO2). OCO-2 SIF removes some important roadblocks that prevent wide and in-depth applications of satellite SIF data sets and offers new opportunities for studying the SIF-GPP relationship and vegetation functional gradients at different spatiotemporal scales. RATIONALE Compared with earlier satellite missions with SIF capability, the OCO-2 SIF product has substantially improved spatial resolution, data acquisition, and retrieval precision. These improvements allow satellite SIF data to be validated, for the first time, directly against ground and airborne measurements and also used to investigate the SIF-GPP relationship and terrestrial ecosystem functional dynamics with considerably better spatiotemporal credibility. RESULTS Coordinated airborne measurements of SIF with the Chlorophyll Fluorescence Imaging Spectrometer (CFIS) were used to validate OCO-2 retrievals. The validation shows close agreement between OCO-2 and CFIS SIF, with a regression slope of 1.02 and R2 of 0.71. Landscape gradients in SIF emission, corresponding to differences in vegetation types, were clearly delineated by OCO-2, a capability that was lacking in previous satellite missions. The SIF-GPP relationships at eddy covariance flux sites in the vicinity of OCO-2 orbital tracks were found to be more consistent across biomes than previously suggested. Finally, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on OCO-2 SIF and available GPP products show highly consistent spatiotemporal correspondence in their leading EOF modes across the globe, suggesting that SIF and GPP are governed by similar dynamics and controlled by similar environmental and biological conditions. CONCLUSION OCO-2 represents a major advance in satellite SIF remote sensing. Our analyses suggest that SIF is a powerful proxy for GPP at multiple spatiotemporal scales and that high-quality satellite SIF is of central importance to studying terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Although the possibility of a universal SIF-GPP relationship across different biome types cannot be dismissed, in-depth process-based studies are needed to unravel the true nature of covariations between SIF and GPP. Of critical importance in such efforts are the potential coordinated dynamics between the light-use efficiencies of CO2 assimilation and fluorescence emission in response to changes in climate and vegetation characteristics. Eventual synergistic uses of SIF with atmospheric CO2 enabled by OCO-2 will lead to more reliable estimates of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks—when, where, why, and how carbon is exchanged between land and atmosphere—as well as a deeper understanding of carbon-climate feedbacks. The marked ecological gradients depicted by OCO-2’s high-resolution SIF measurements along a transect of temperate deciduous forests, crops, and urban area from Indiana to suburban Chicago, Illinois. Quantifying gross primary production (GPP) remains a major challenge in global carbon cycle research. Spaceborne monitoring of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal of molecular origin, can assist in terrestrial GPP monitoring. However, the extent to which SIF tracks spatiotemporal variations in GPP remains unresolved. Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2)’s SIF data acquisition and fine spatial resolution permit direct validation against ground and airborne observations. Empirical orthogonal function analysis shows consistent spatiotemporal correspondence between OCO-2 SIF and GPP globally. A linear SIF-GPP relationship is also obtained at eddy-flux sites covering diverse biomes, setting the stage for future investigations of the robustness of such a relationship across more biomes. Our findings support the central importance of high-quality satellite SIF for studying terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics.

Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño

INTRODUCTION The influence of El Niño on climate is accompanied by large changes to the carbon cycle, and El Niño–induced variability in the carbon cycle has been attributed mainly to the tropical continents. However, owing to a dearth of observations in the tropics, tropical carbon fluxes are poorly quantified, and considerable debate exists over the dominant mechanisms (e.g., plant growth, respiration, fire) and regions (e.g., humid versus semiarid tropics) on the net carbon balance. RATIONALE The launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) shortly before the 2015–2016 El Niño, the second strongest since the 1950s, has provided an opportunity to understand how tropical land carbon fluxes respond to the warm and dry climate characteristics of El Niño conditions. The El Niño events may also provide a natural experiment to study the response of tropical land carbon fluxes to future climate changes, because anomalously warm and dry tropical environments typical of El Niño are expected to be more frequent under most emission scenarios. RESULTS The tropical regions of three continents (South America, Asia, and Africa) had heterogeneous responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño, in terms of both climate drivers and the carbon cycle. The annual mean precipitation over tropical South America and tropical Asia was lower by 3.0σ and 2.8σ, respectively, in 2015 relative to the 2011 La Niña year. Tropical Africa, on the other hand, had near equal precipitation and the same number of dry months between 2015 and 2011; however, surface temperatures were higher by 1.6σ, dominated by the positive anomaly over its eastern and southern regions. In response to the warmer and drier climate anomaly in 2015, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere than in 2011, which accounts for 83.3% of the global total 3.0–gigatons of carbon (gigatons C) net biosphere flux differences and 92.6% of the atmospheric CO2 growth-rate differences between 2015 and 2011. It indicates that the tropical land biosphere flux anomaly was the driver of the highest atmospheric CO2 growth rate in 2015. The three tropical continents had an approximately even contribution to the pantropical net carbon flux anomaly in 2015, but had diverse dominant processes: gross primary production (GPP) reduced carbon uptake (0.9 ± 0.96 gigatons C) in tropical South America, fire increased carbon release (0.4 ± 0.08 gigatons C) in tropical Asia, and respiration increased carbon release (0.6 ± 1.01 gigatons C) in Africa. We found that most of the excess carbon release in 2015 was associated with either extremely low precipitation or high temperatures, or both. CONCLUSION Our results indicate that the global El Niño effect is a superposition of regionally specific effects. The heterogeneous climate forcing and carbon response over the three tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability, which could also be due to previous disturbance and soil and vegetation structure. The similarity between the 2015 tropical climate anomaly and the projected climate changes imply that the role of the tropical land as a buffer for fossil fuel emissions may be reduced in the future. The heterogeneous response may reflect differences in temperature and rainfall anomalies, but intrinsic differences in vegetation species, soils, and prior disturbance may contribute as well. A synergistic use of multiple satellite observations and a long time series of spatially resolved fluxes derived from sustained satellite observations will enable tests of these hypotheses, allow for a more process-based understanding, and, ultimately, aid improved carbon-climate model projections. Diverse climate driver anomalies and carbon cycle responses to the 2015–2016 El Niño over the three tropical continents. Schematic of climate anomaly patterns over the three tropical continents and the anomalies of the net carbon flux and its dominant constituent flux (i.e., GPP, respiration, and fire) relative to the 2011 La Niña during the 2015–2016 El Niño. GtC, gigatons C. The 2015–2016 El Niño led to historically high temperatures and low precipitation over the tropics, while the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was the largest on record. Here we quantify the response of tropical net biosphere exchange, gross primary production, biomass burning, and respiration to these climate anomalies by assimilating column CO2, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, and carbon monoxide observations from multiple satellites. Relative to the 2011 La Niña, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere in 2015, consisting of approximately even contributions from three tropical continents but dominated by diverse carbon exchange processes. The heterogeneity of the carbon-exchange processes indicated here challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability.

Big questions, big science: meeting the challenges of global ecology

Ecologists are increasingly tackling questions that require significant infrastucture, large experiments, networks of observations, and complex data and computation. Key hypotheses in ecology increasingly require more investment, and larger data sets to be tested than can be collected by a single investigator’s or s group of investigator’s labs, sustained for longer than a typical grant. Large-scale projects are expensive, so their scientific return on the investment has to justify the opportunity cost-the science foregone because resources were expended on a large project rather than supporting a number of individual projects. In addition, their management must be accountable and efficient in the use of significant resources, requiring the use of formal systems engineering and project management to mitigate risk of failure. Mapping the scientific method into formal project management requires both scientists able to work in the context, and a project implementation team sensitive to the unique requirements of ecology. Sponsoring agencies, under pressure from external and internal forces, experience many pressures that push them towards counterproductive project management but a scientific community aware and experienced in large project science can mitigate these tendencies. For big ecology to result in great science, ecologists must become informed, aware and engaged in the advocacy and governance of large ecological projects.

Effect of environmental conditions on the relationship between solar induced fluorescence and gross primary productivity at an OzFlux grassland site

Recent studies have utilized coarse spatial and temporal resolution remotely sensed solar induced fluorescence (SIF) for modeling terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) at regional scales. Although these studies have demonstrated the potential of SIF, there have been concerns about the ecophysiological basis of the relationship between SIF and GPP in different environmental conditions. Launched in 2014, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) has enabled fine scale (1.3-by-2.5 km) retrievals of SIF that are comparable with measurements recorded at eddy covariance towers. In this study, we examine the effect of environmental conditions on the relationship of OCO-2 SIF with tower GPP over the course of a growing season at a well-characterized natural grassland site. Combining OCO-2 SIF and eddy covariance tower data with a canopy radiative transfer and an ecosystem model, we also assess the potential of OCO-2 SIF to constrain the estimates of V_(cmax), one of the most important parameters in ecosystem models. Based on the results, we suggest that although environmental conditions play a role in determining the nature of relationship between SIF and GPP, overall the linear relationship is more robust at ecosystem scale than the theory based on leaf-level processes might suggest. Our study also shows that the ability of SIF to constrain V_(cmax) is weak at the selected site.