David Schnabel

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

Rift Valley Fever Virus Epidemic in Kenya, 2006/2007: The Entomologic Investigations

In December 2006, Rift Valley fever (RVF) was diagnosed in humans in Garissa Hospital, Kenya and an outbreak reported affecting 11 districts. Entomologic surveillance was performed in four districts to determine the epidemic/epizootic vectors of RVF virus (RVFV). Approximately 297,000 mosquitoes were collected, 164,626 identified to species, 72,058 sorted into 3,003 pools and tested for RVFV by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Seventy-seven pools representing 10 species tested positive for RVFV, including Aedes mcintoshi/circumluteolus (26 pools), Aedes ochraceus (23 pools), Mansonia uniformis (15 pools); Culex poicilipes, Culex bitaeniorhynchus (3 pools each); Anopheles squamosus, Mansonia africana (2 pools each); Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex univittatus, Aedes pembaensis (1 pool each). Positive Ae. pembaensis, Cx. univittatus, and Cx. bitaeniorhynchus was a first time observation. Species composition, densities, and infection varied among districts supporting hypothesis that different mosquito species serve as epizootic/epidemic vectors of RVFV in diverse ecologies, creating a complex epidemiologic pattern in East Africa.

An Investigation of a Major Outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya: 2006–2007

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) occurred in Kenya during November 2006 through March 2007. We characterized the magnitude of the outbreak through disease surveillance and serosurveys, and investigated contributing factors to enhance strategies for forecasting to prevent or minimize the impact of future outbreaks. Of 700 suspected cases, 392 met probable or confirmed case definitions; demographic data were available for 340 (87%), including 90 (26.4%) deaths. Male cases were more likely to die than females, Case Fatality Rate Ratio 1.8 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3-3.8). Serosurveys suggested an attack rate up to 13% of residents in heavily affected areas. Genetic sequencing showed high homology among viruses from this and earlier RVF outbreaks. Case areas were more likely than non-case areas to have soil types that retain surface moisture. The outbreak had a devastatingly high case-fatality rate for hospitalized patients. However, there were up to 180,000 infected mildly ill or asymptomatic people within highly affected areas. Soil type data may add specificity to climate-based forecasting models for RVF.

Risk Factors for Severe Rift Valley Fever Infection in Kenya, 2007

A large Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in Kenya from December 2006 to March 2007. We conducted a study to define risk factors associated with infection and severe disease. A total of 861 individuals from 424 households were enrolled. Two hundred and two participants (23%) had serologic evidence of acute RVF infection. Of these, 52 (26%) had severe RVF disease characterized by hemorrhagic manifestations or death. Independent risk factors for acute RVF infection were consuming or handling products from sick animals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-3.61, population attributable risk percentage [PAR%] = 19%) and being a herds person (OR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20-2.63, PAR% = 11%). Touching an aborted animal fetus was associated with severe RVF disease (OR = 3.83, 95% CI = 1.68-9.07, PAR% = 14%). Consuming or handling products from sick animals was associated with death (OR = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.07-12.64, PAR% = 47%). Exposures related to animal contact were associated with acute RVF infection, whereas exposures to mosquitoes were not independent risk factors.

Department of Defense influenza and other respiratory disease surveillance during the 2009 pandemic

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center’s Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supports and oversees surveillance for emerging infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases, of importance to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). AFHSC-GEIS accomplishes this mission by providing funding and oversight to a global network of partners for respiratory disease surveillance. This report details the system’s surveillance activities during 2009, with a focus on efforts in responding to the novel H1N1 Influenza A (A/H1N1) pandemic and contributions to global public health. Active surveillance networks established by AFHSC-GEIS partners resulted in the initial detection of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and several other countries, and viruses isolated from these activities were used as seed strains for the 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. Partners also provided diagnostic laboratory training and capacity building to host nations to assist with the novel A/H1N1 pandemic global response, adapted a Food and Drug Administration-approved assay for use on a ruggedized polymerase chain reaction platform for diagnosing novel A/H1N1 in remote settings, and provided estimates of seasonal vaccine effectiveness against novel A/H1N1 illness. Regular reporting of the system’s worldwide surveillance findings to the global public health community enabled leaders to make informed decisions on disease mitigation measures and controls for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. AFHSC-GEIS’s support of a global network contributes to DoD’s force health protection, while supporting global public health.

The Role of Pfmdr1 and Pfcrt in Changing Chloroquine, Amodiaquine, Mefloquine and Lumefantrine Susceptibility in Western-Kenya P. falciparum Samples during 2008–2011

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in the Pfmdr1, and Pfcrt, genes of Plasmodium falciparum may confer resistance to a number of anti-malaria drugs. Pfmdr1 86Y and haplotypes at Pfcrt 72-76 have been linked to chloroquine (CQ) as well as amodiaquine (AQ) resistance. mefloquine (MQ) and lumefantrine (LU) sensitivities are linked to Pfmdr1 86Y. Additionally, Pfcrt K76 allele carrying parasites have shown tolerance to LU. We investigated the association between Pfmdr1 86/Pfcrt 72-76 and P. falciparum resistance to CQ, AQ, MQ and LU using field samples collected during 2008–2011 from malaria endemic sites in western Kenya. Genomic DNA from these samples was genotyped to examine SNPs and haplotypes in Pfmdr1 and Pfcrt respectively. Additionally, immediate ex vivo and in vitro drug sensitivity profiles were assessed using the malaria SYBR Green I fluorescence-based assay. We observed a rapid but steady percent increase in wild-type parasites with regard to both Pfmdr1 and Pfcrt between 2008 and 2011 (p<0.0001). Equally, a significant reciprocate decrease in AQ and CQ median IC50 values occurred (p<0.0001) during the same period. Thus, the data in this study point to a significantly rapid change in parasite response to AQ and CQ in the study period. This may be due to releasing of drug pressure on the parasite from reduced use of AQ in the face of increased Artemisinin (ART) Combination Therapy (ACT) administration following the intervention of the Global Fund in 2008. LU has been shown to select for 76K genotypes, thus the observed increase in 76K genotypes coupled with significant cross resistance between LU and MQ, may herald emergence of tolerance against both drugs in future.

A growing global network’s role in outbreak response: AFHSC-GEIS 2008-2009

A cornerstone of effective disease surveillance programs comprises the early identification of infectious threats and the subsequent rapid response to prevent further spread. Effectively identifying, tracking and responding to these threats is often difficult and requires international cooperation due to the rapidity with which diseases cross national borders and spread throughout the global community as a result of travel and migration by humans and animals. From Oct.1, 2008 to Sept. 30, 2009, the United States Department of Defense’s (DoD) Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) identified 76 outbreaks in 53 countries. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks were identified by the global network and included a wide spectrum of support activities in collaboration with host country partners, several of which were in direct support of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). The network also supported military forces around the world affected by the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic of 2009. With IHR (2005) as the guiding framework for action, the AFHSC-GEIS network of international partners and overseas research laboratories continues to develop into a far-reaching system for identifying, analyzing and responding to emerging disease threats.

Abundance, diversity, and distribution of mosquito vectors in selected ecological regions of Kenya: public health implications

ABSTRACT: The diversity of mosquito arbovirus vectors was investigated to define regional risk of arbovirus transmission in Kenya. Mosquitoes were sampled between April, 2007 and December, 2010 at thirteen sites across seven administrative provinces and ecological zones. CDC light traps were used to collect mosquitoes while human-landing collection was conducted in five of the sites to target dayfeeding Aedes (Stegomyia) species. Over 524,000 mosquitoes were collected and identified into 101 species, 30 of them known vectors of arboviruses endemic to Kenya. Ae. (Neomelaniconion) mcintoshi and Ae. (Aedimorphus) ochraceus were most abundant in Garissa in the arid northeastern province, and Mansonia uniformis and Mn. africana in semi-arid Baringo in the Rift Valley Province. Ae. ochraceus, Mn. africana and Mn. uniformis were also significant in Nyanza Province, while Ae. (Neomelaniconion) circumluteolus predominated in Budalangi, Western Province. Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti was predominant in Rabai in the Coast Province but insignificant in the western and Nyanza sites. Culex pipiens was abundant in Rift Valley and Nyanza Provinces around the lake shores. This study highlights the potential for emergence and re-emergence of arboviral diseases among vulnerable populations. This calls for comprehensive mapping of vector distribution and abundance for planning focused vector control measures.

Relationship of Climate, Geography, and Geology to the Incidence of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya during the 2006–2007 Outbreak

We estimated Rift Valley fever (RVF) incidence as a function of geological, geographical, and climatological factors during the 2006–2007 RVF epidemic in Kenya. Location information was obtained for 214 of 340 (63%) confirmed and probable RVF cases that occurred during an outbreak from November 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007. Locations with subtypes of solonetz, calcisols, solonchaks, and planosols soil types were highly associated with RVF occurrence during the outbreak period. Increased rainfall and higher greenness measures before the outbreak were associated with increased risk. RVF was more likely to occur on plains, in densely bushed areas, at lower elevations, and in the Somalia acacia ecological zone. Cases occurred in three spatial temporal clusters that differed by the date of associated rainfall, soil type, and land usage.