David T. Cleland

Homogenization of northern U.S. Great Lakes forests due to land use

Human land use of forested regions has intensified worldwide in recent decades, threatening long-term sustainability. Primary effects include conversion of land cover or reversion to an earlier stage of successional development. Both types of change can have cascading effects through ecosystems; however, the long-term effects where forests are allowed to regrow are poorly understood. We quantify the regional-scale consequences of a century of Euro-American land use in the northern U.S. Great Lakes region using a combination of historical Public Land Survey records and current forest inventory and land cover data. Our analysis shows a distinct and rapid trajectory of vegetation change toward historically unprecedented and simplified conditions. In addition to overall loss of forestland, current forests are marked by lower species diversity, functional diversity, and structural complexity compared to pre-Euro-American forests. Today’s forest is marked by dominance of broadleaf deciduous species—all 55 ecoregions that comprise the region exhibit a lower relative dominance of conifers in comparison to the pre-Euro-American period. Aspen (Populus grandidentata and P. tremuloides) and maple (Acer saccharum and A. rubrum) species comprise the primary deciduous species that have replaced conifers. These changes reflect the cumulative effects of local forest alterations over the region and they affect future ecosystem conditions as well as the ecosystem services they provide.

Effects of roads on landscape structure within nested ecological units of the Northern Great Lakes Region, USA

Road development is a primary mechanism of fragmentation in the northern Great Lakes Region, removing original land cover, creating edge habitat, altering landscape structure and function, and increasing access for humans. We examined road density, landscape structure, and edge habitat created by roads for eight land cover types at two ecological extents within a 78,752 km 2 landscape. Road density ranged from 0.16 to 2.07 km/km 2 within land type associations. Between 5 and 60% of a land cover type was affected by roads, depending on the assumed depth-of-edge influence (DEI). Roads increased number of patches and patch density, and decreased mean patch size and largest patch index. Changes in patch size coefficient of variation and measures of patch shape complexity depended on ecological level (i.e. scale) and land cover class. Limited additional change in landscape metrics occurred as road DEI was increased from 20 to 300 m. Land cover type occurred in buffers at the same percentages as in the landscape as a whole. At finer extents, areas with greatest road densities did not always parallel those with greatest changes in landscape structure. Interactions of scale and variation in the distribution of roads across the region emphasize the importance of examining landscape metrics and road impacts within specific cover types and at appropriate, or multiple, scales. Although this region is densely forested, the fragmentation effects of roads are pervasive, significantly altering landscape structure within multiple forest cover classes and at differing ecological extents. # 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing historical and modern fire regimes in Michigan (USA): A landscape ecosystem approach

We studied the relationships of landscape ecosystems to historical and contemporary fire regimes across 4.3 million hectares in northern lower Michigan (USA). Changes in fire regimes were documented by comparing historical fire rotations in different landscape ecosystems to those occurring between 1985 and 2000. Previously published data and a synthesis of the literature were used to identify six forest-replacement fire regime categories with fire rotations ranging from very short (<100 years) to very long (>1,000 years). We derived spatially-explicit estimates of the susceptibility of landscape ecosystems to fire disturbance using Landtype Association maps as initial units of investigation. Each Landtype Association polygon was assigned to a fire regime category based on associations of ecological factors known to influence fire regimes. Spatial statistics were used to interpolate fire points recorded by the General Land Office. Historical fire rotations were determined by calculating the area burned for each category of fire regime and dividing this area by fifteen (years) to estimate area burned per annum. Modern fire rotations were estimated using data on fire location and size obtained from federal and state agencies. Landtype Associations networked into fire regime categories exhibited differences in both historical and modern fire rotations. Historical rotations varied by 23-fold across all fire rotation categories, and modern forest fire rotations by 13-fold. Modern fire rotations were an order of magnitude longer than historical rotations. The magnitude of these changes has important implications for forest health and understanding of ecological processes in most of the fire rotation categories that we identified.

Human and biophysical factors influencing modern fire disturbance in northern Wisconsin

Humans cause most wildfires in northern Wisconsin, but interactions between human and biophysical variables affecting fire starts and size are not well understood. We applied classification tree analyses to a 16-year fire database from northern Wisconsin to evaluate the relative importance of human v. biophysical variables affecting fire occurrence within (1) all cover types, and (2) within forest types in each of four different fire size groupings (all fires; fires ≥0.4 ha (1 acre); fires ≥4 ha (10 acres); fires ≥16 ha (40 acres)). Housing density was the most important indicator of fire observations. Increasing minimum fire size increased the relative importance of biophysical variables. Key biophysical variables included land cover type, soil moisture indicators, and an index of presettlement fire rotation associated with glacial landforms. Our results indicate the likelihood of fire starts is primarily influenced by human activity in northern Wisconsin, whereas biophysical factors determine whether those fire starts become large fires. Important interactions between human and biophysical variables were observed for nearly all fire types and size thresholds examined. Our results have implications for both ecological restoration and the management of fire risk within historically fire-prone systems currently experiencing rapid rural development.

Human influence on the abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuels in mixed forests of northern Wisconsin, USA

Though fire is considered a “natural” disturbance, humans heavily influence modern wildfire regimes. Humans influence fires both directly, by igniting and suppressing fires, and indirectly, by either altering vegetation, climate, or both. We used the LANDIS disturbance and succession model to compare the relative importance of a direct human influence (suppression of low intensity surface fires) with an indirect human influence (timber harvest) on the long-term abundance and connectivity of high-risk fuel in a 2791 km2 landscape characterized by a mixture of northern hardwood and boreal tree species in northern Wisconsin. High risk fuels were defined as a combination of sites recently disturbed by wind and sites containing conifer species/cohorts that might serve as “ladder fuel” to carry a surface fire into the canopy. Two levels of surface fire suppression (high/current and low) and three harvest alternatives (no harvest, hardwood emphasis, and pine emphasis) were compared in a 2×3 factorial design using 5 replicated simulations per treatment combination over a 250-year period. Multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the landscape pattern of high-risk fuel (proportion of landscape, mean patch size, nearest neighbor distance, and juxtaposition with non fuel sites) was significantly influenced by both surface fire suppression and by forest harvest (p > 0.0001). However, the two human influences also interacted with each other (p < 0.001), because fire suppression was less likely to influence fuel connectivity when harvest disturbance was simultaneously applied. Temporal patterns observed for each of seven conifer species indicated that disturbances by either fire or harvest encouraged the establishment of moderately shade-tolerant conifer species by disturbing the dominant shade tolerant competitor, sugar maple. Our results conflict with commonly reported relationships between fire suppression and fire risk observed within the interior west of the United States, and illustrate the importance of understanding key interactions between natural disturbance, human disturbance, and successional responses to these disturbance types that will eventually dictate future fire risk.

A New Process for Organizing Assessments of Social, Economic, and Environmental Outcomes: Case Study of Wildland Fire Management in the USA

Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing information to generate hypotheses about adverse ecological effects, select assessment endpoints, and develop an analysis plan). These processes require modification to be applicable for integrated assessments that evaluate ecosystem management alternatives in terms of their ecological, economic, and social consequences.We present 8 questions that define the steps of a new process we term integrated problem formulation (IPF), and we illustrate the use of IPF through a retrospective case study comparing 2 recent phases of development of the Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system, a planning and budgeting system for the management of wildland fire throughout publicly managed lands in the United States. IPF extends traditional planning and problem formulation by including the explicit comparison of management alternatives, the valuation of ecological, economic and social endpoints, and the combination or integration of those endpoints. The phase 1, limited prototype FPA system used a set of assessment endpoints of common form (i.e., probabilities of given flame heights over acres of selected land-resource types), which were specified and assigned relative weights at the local level in relation to a uniform national standard. This approach was chosen to permit system-wide optimization of fire management budget allocations according to a cost-effectiveness criterion. Before full development, however, the agencies abandoned this approach in favor of a phase 2 system that examined locally specified (rather than system-optimized) allocation alternatives and was more permissive as to endpoint form. We demonstrate how the IPF process illuminates the nature, rationale, and consequences of these differences, and argue that its early use for the FPA system may have enabled a smoother development path.

The Great Lakes Ecological Assessment

French explorer Jean Nicolet led the first European expedition to the northern Great Lakes region in 1634 (Stearns, 1997). This began a period of exploration and fur trading that lasted into the early 19th century. Many small settlements were established as trading centers, army posts, and missions, which subsequently grew into towns and cities as the midwestern U.S. population grew, with an attending growth in the demand for lumber.