David T. Ellwood

Welfare Realities: From Rhetoric to Reform

Preface * The Context for Welfare Reform Thomas J. Kane and Mary Jo Bane * Understanding Welfare Dynamics David T. Ellwood and Mary Jo Bane * Understanding Dependency David T. Ellwood * Increasing Self-Sufficiency by Reforming Welfare Mary Jo Bane * Reducing Poverty by Replacing Welfare David T. Ellwood * Appendix * Notes * References * Index

The Spread of Single-Parent Families in the United States since 1960

About half of all American children can expect to live with both of their biological parents at age fifteen, compared to two-thirds of children born in Sweden, Germany, and France, and nine-tenths of those born in Italy. This form of American exceptionalism reflects both higher rates of divorce and higher rates of breakup among cohabiting couples in the US. The increase in divorce, which began in the early 1960s but leveled off in the early 1980s, affected women at all educational levels. The increase in nonmarital childbearing, which was concentrated between the early 1960s and early 1990s, mainly affected non-white women and white women without college degrees. These changes appear to be a product of changes in sexual mores, which reduced the role of sexual attraction and increased the importance of economic calculations in decisions about whether to marry. The increased importance of economic factors coincided with a decline in non-college men’s ability to support a family and perhaps also with an increase in conflict over men and women’s roles.

The Impact of Right-to-Work Laws on Union Organizing

In contrast to previous studies which have examined the impact of Right-to-Work (RTW) laws on the level or stock of union membership, this paper examines their impact on the most updated flow into membership and the organizing of workers through certified elections. Since detailed annual data are available by state, we are able to estimate an accelerator model of the flow into unionism, and adjust for possible omitted variable and simultaneity bias. The results show dramatic falls in organizing immediately after the passage of a RTW law, with more moderate declines in later years, just as an accelerator model could predict. Overall, the results are consistent with a 5-10 percent reduction in unionism as a result of the passage of RTW laws.

One Fifth of the Nation's Children: Why Are They Poor?

Despite 20 years of concern about poverty, the most recent census figures show that 20 percent of children in the United States live in families with incomes below the poverty line. In understanding why, it is important to recognize the reasons for poverty among children in both two-parent working poor families and single-parent families. Examination of the evidence suggests that family poverty basically reflects the economic and social changes that affect most United States families.

The Sputtering Labor Force of the 21st Century: Can Social Policy Help?

Disclosed is a method and apparatus for continuously molding plastic parts. Basically, the apparatus comprises a pair of spaced, rotatable, indexable trunnion transfer units or wheels having a plurality of cradles thereon for receiving and transporting carrier bars. The wheels are indexable to a number of stations at which various activities take place and are positioned on either side of the mold area of a conventional molding machine. A carrier bar having affixed thereto a plurality of cores for the part to be molded, for example, is transported by the rotating wheel from the bottom of the first wheel to a first station where an insert may be added to the core and thence to the top position of the wheel where the carrier bar is transferred to a conveyor which in turn transports the carrier bar to the mold. After completion of the molding cycle, the carrier bar with the molded parts thereon, is transported by the conveyor to the top of the second wheel where it is inserted thereon. The second wheel is then rotated to a first station where additional parts may be affixed to the molded part and thence to a second station where the molded parts are unloaded from the cores on the carrier bar. After unloading, the parts are moved by conveyor or other means for further processing or are deposited in a storage container. Thereafter, the second wheel is indexed to a third station where the empty carrier bar is transferred to an inclined track for return to the first wheel where the process is repeated. The method and apparatus can be employed to transport a carrier bar having either cores or inserts thereon depending upon the part to be molded.

Child Poverty in Britain and the United States

Child poverty rose sharply in Britain and the US in the period preceding the Blair and Clinton governments, so that over a third of children were in poverty in both countries. Demographic change, falls in work and increasing wage inequality all contributed to this rise in Britain, with benefit changes having an offsetting effect. In the US, demographic and wages changes were the drivers. Both administrations acted with a range of welfare reforms aimed at increasing work incentives and, in Britain benefits for those not working were also raised. Child poverty fell under the Blair and Clinton governments; with work and benefit changes explaining most of the fall in Britain and work and demographic change the US fall. Copyright 2003 Royal Economic Society.

The Middle Class Parent Penalty: Child Benefits in the U.S. Tax Code

Low-income families with children receive large tax benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit, while high-income taxpayers receive large tax benefits from dependent exemptions (whose value is greater to those in higher tax brackets). In contrast, middle-income parents receive substantially smaller tax benefits associated with children. This U-shaped pattern of benefits by income, which we call the middle-class parent penalty, not only raises issues of fairness; it also generates marginal tax rates and marriage penalties for moderate-income families that are as high or higher than those facing more well-to-do taxpayers. This paper documents how the tax benefits of children vary with income, and illustrates their effect on marginal tax rates and marriage penalties. It then examines five options for reducing or eliminating the middle-class parent penalty and the high marginal tax rates and marriage penalties it produces.

The Clinton Legacy for America's Poor

This paper examines the impact of Clinton era social policy changes on the poor. It explores shifts in incentives, behavior, and incomes and discusses the role Clinton did or did not play in influencing the policy mix and the nature of the political debate surrounding poverty. Policy changes included a radical shift in welfare policy, a sizable expansion in supports for low income workers with children, new child support enforcement measures, more restricted support for immigrants, and altered housing policies. Partly as a result of these policies, but also in part due to the strong economy, welfare use plummeted, work rose dramatically among single parents, and poverty was reduced. At the same time, there are indications that some families are doing worse than before and that some working families are not getting health and food benefits to which they are entitled. Significant questions remain about what will happen to poor families in the next recession.

The Changing Structure of American Families. The Bigger Family Planning Issue.

The author looks at recent changes in families in the United States and the implications of those changes for social policy. (ANNOTATION)

Child poverty in Britain

Relative child poverty rose sharply over the period 1979–97/98 and has since fallen by about half a million (4 percentage points). Absolute poverty changed little between 1979 and 1997/98 but has fallen sharply since then. Absolute poverty fell by 1.7 million between 1997/98 and 2001/02, with a half million fall in the last year alone. Changes in work patterns, wages and demographics all contributed to rising relative child poverty between 1979 and 1997/98. Demographics and work changes were responsible for the rise in absolute poverty. Benefit changes offset some of these increases. The absence of work was particularly severe on children in lone parent families. The Blair government’s welfare reforms raised work incentives and resulted in more work among low income families with children. These increases in work had modest effects in reducing child poverty and much of the reduction is attributable to benefit changes — work itself is not enough to pull many families over the poverty line. The Clinton administration introduced a range of welfare to work reforms in the US, increasing aid to those in work but cutting it to those out of work. Child poverty there has fallen but not as sharply. Increased work and demographic change have been the driving forces in poverty reductions. Median incomes, and hence the poverty line have increased rapidly and in conjunction further small increases in wage inequality and demographic shifts have meant that the government is making slower progress in reducing relative poverty than anticipated. While much progress has been made, current and planned policy reforms may not raise the incomes of the poor enough relative to median income to achieve the sort of poverty reductions needed to meet the stated poverty targets.