Dawei Tang

Assessing new product development project risk by Bayesian network with a systematic probability generation methodology

New product development (NPD) is a crucial process to keep a company being competitive. However, because of its inherent features, NPD is a process with high risk as well as high uncertainty. To ensure a smooth operation of NPD, the risk involved in the process need to be assessed and the uncertainty should also be addressed properly. Facing these two tasks, in this paper, the critical risk factors in NPD are first analyzed. Since Bayesian network is specialized in dealing with uncertainties, those risk factors are then modeled into a Bayesian network to facilitate the assessing of the risk involved in an NPD process. To generate the probabilities of different kinds of nodes in a Bayesian network, a systematic probability generation approach is proposed with emphasis on generating the conditional probabilities of the nodes with multi-parents. A case study is also given in the paper to test and validate the critical risk factors as well as the probability generation approach.

THE EVIDENTIAL REASONING APPROACH FOR RISK MANAGEMENT IN LARGE ENTERPRISES

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is a framework that is used by large organizations to manage risk as a whole. The key difference between ERM and traditional risk management is that in the latter risks are managed individually, whilst the former requires the aggregation of risks to facilitate risk management. However, current methods for risk aggregation have various limitations when applied under the context of ERM, such as the requirement for accurate and complete information about risk factors, the inability to handle different kinds of uncertainty which are inevitable during the risk aggregation process, and so on. Due to its unique advantages in accommodating different forms of both complete and incomplete information and handling different kinds of uncertainty, the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach together with its implementation entitled Intelligent Decision System (IDS) is introduced in this paper for risk aggregation in ERM to overcome the limitations and to provide a comprehensive analysis for risk management based on the aggregation result. To demonstrate the applicability of the ER approach and IDS in ERM, a case study is analyzed in detail regarding risk aggregation and risk management for a health care organization in North England.

Fire and Explosion Safety Assessment in Container Line Supply Chain

Safety assessment is an important part of maritime safety analysis and management as it can provide decision support to safety-based operations. In this chapter, we first review fire and explosion safety related regulations and assessment approaches, and then present a hierarchical assessment framework for evaluating safety against fire and explosion hazards in container line supply chain (CLSC).Main criteria and factors influencing fire and explosion safety on containerships are investigated, and a safety modeling and synthesis method using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is briefly discussed. The outcomes generated by the proposed safety assessment method are highly consistent with “goal-setting” safety regulations.

Security Based Operation in Container Line Supply Chain: a Literature Review

Container Line Supply Chain (CLSC) plays a dominant role in world cargo transportation, but also subjects to various threats during its operation due to its inherent features. The threats can not only cause disruptions for CLSC operation, they may also lead to various disasters globally. To help to manage the potential disasters, in this chapter, current research on security for CLSC operation is reviewed. Specifically, the research is divided into three categories: (1) research from a general level, including standards, regulations, codes, etc. issued by international, national and industrial organizations, aiming at improving CLSC security, (2) research on specific security issues in CLSC, e.g., threats faced by CLSC, features of CLSC, criteria for security assessment of CLSC, etc., and (3) research on different risk analysis tools and their applications in CLSC security related areas. Further, the limitations of current research are also analyzed and potential directions for future research in this field are suggested.

Project risk modelling and assessment in new product development

New Product Development (NPD) is a crucial process to maintain the competitiveness of a company in an ever changing market. In the process of developing new products of a high level of innovation, there are various types of risks, which should be properly identified, systematically analyzed, modeled, evaluated and effectively controlled. In this paper, the Bayesian Network (BN) method will be investigated to assess risks involved in NPD processes. A systematic method is examined to generate probabilities in BNs. Both the probability generation method and the BN model are demonstrated by a case study about the design of electronic products for a multinational flashlight manufacturing company.