Dean R. Paini

The role of global trade and transport network topology in the human-mediated dispersal of alien species

More people and goods are moving further and more frequently via many different trade and transport networks under current trends of globalisation. These networks can play a major role in the unintended introduction of exotic species to new locations. With the continuing rise in global trade, more research attention is being focused on the role of networks in the spread of invasive species. This represents an emerging field of research in invasion science and the substantial knowledge being generated within other disciplines can provide ecologists with new tools with which to study invasions. For the first time, we synthesise studies from several perspectives, approaches and disciplines to derive the fundamental characteristics of network topology determining the likelihood of spread of organisms via trade and transport networks. These characteristics can be used to identify critical points of vulnerability within these networks and enable the development of more effective strategies to prevent invasions.

Annual Cycles of Frankliniella spp. (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) Thrips Abundance on North Florida Uncultivated Reproductive Hosts: Predicting Possible Sources of Pest Outbreaks

Abstract Frankliniella spp. (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) thrips damage a variety of crops, feed on a broad range of hosts, and often migrate into cropping systems from adjacent vegetation. To determine potential sources of Frankliniella spp. thrips on crops, annual cycles of abundance of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), Frankliniella fusca (Hinds), Frankliniella bispinosa (Morgan), and Frankliniella tritici (Fitch) were evaluated on seven common, uncultivated reproductive hosts. These hosts included Raphanus raphanistrum L., Rubus trivialis Michx., Rubus cuneifolius Pursh., Vicia sativa L., Trifolium repens L., Solidago canadensis L. and Chenopodium ambrosioides L. Thrips were collected from R. cuneifolius, and T. repens in the spring, R. raphanistrum in the summer, and C. ambrosioides and S. canadensis in the fall. The most common Frankliniella species on every plant species was F. tritici, and a fifth species, Pseudothrips inequalis (Beach), was collected in the fall on C. ambrosioides and S. canadensis. All thrips species were highly aggregated in the flowers or flower racemes, rather than leaves or fruit, and they were generally only collected from flowering plants. R. raphanistrum supported large populations, and they may be an important link for thrips between spring and fall. In addition, it may be an essentially enemy free host, as only one O. insidiosus, an important thrips predator, was collected from this host. S. canadensis also supported large thrips populations in the fall, and it may be a source of thrips migrating into crops the following spring. Controlling thrips on these hosts in their respective seasons may limit the number migrating into cropping systems.

Modelling the Arrival of Invasive Organisms via the International Marine Shipping Network: A Khapra Beetle Study

Species can sometimes spread significant distances beyond their natural dispersal ability by anthropogenic means. International shipping routes and the transport of shipping containers, in particular are a commonly recognised pathway for the introduction of invasive species. Species can gain access to a shipping container and remain inside, hidden and undetected for long periods. Currently, government biosecurity agencies charged with intercepting and removing these invasive species when they arrive to a county’s border only assess the most immediate point of loading in evaluating a shipping container’s risk profile. However, an invasive species could have infested a container previous to this point and travelled undetected before arriving at the border. To assess arrival risk for an invasive species requires analysing the international shipping network in order to identify the most likely source countries and the domestic ports of entry where the species is likely to arrive. We analysed an international shipping network and generated pathway simulations using a first-order Markov chain model to identify possible source ports and countries for the arrival of Khapra beetle (Trogoderma granarium) to Australia. We found Kaohsiung (Taiwan) and Busan (Republic of Korea) to be the most likely sources for Khapra beetle arrival, while the port of Melbourne was the most likely point of entry to Australia. Sensitivity analysis revealed significant stability in the rankings of foreign and Australian ports. This methodology provides a reliable modelling tool to identify and rank possible sources for an invasive species that could arrive at some time in the future. Such model outputs can be used by biosecurity agencies concerned with inspecting incoming shipping containers and wishing to optimise their inspection protocols.

Biosecurity and yield improvement technologies are strategic complements in the fight against food insecurity.

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield. We model biosecurity as a food security technology that may complement conventional yield improvement policies if the gains in global farm profits are sufficient to offset the costs of implementation and maintenance. Using phytosanitary measures that slow global spread of the Ug99 strain of wheat stem rust as an example of pre-border biosecurity risk mitigation and combining it with post-border surveillance and invasive alien species control efforts, we estimate global farm profitability may be improved by over US

Estimating the social welfare effects of New Zealand apple imports

4.5 billion per annum.

Within plant interspecific competition does not limit the highly invasive thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis in Florida.

International trade of agricultural products not only generates wealth but is also responsible for the introduction of invasive pests beyond their natural range. Comprehensive bioeconomic modelling frameworks are increasingly needed to assist in the resolution of import access disputes. However, frameworks that combine welfare analysis attributable to trade and invasive species spread management are lacking. This study provides a demonstration of how a comprehensive economic framework, which takes into account both the gains from trade and the costs of invasive species outbreaks, can inform decision-makers when making quarantine decisions. We develop a partial equilibrium trade model considering international trade and combine it with a stratified dispersal model for the spread and management of potential outbreaks of an invasive species. An empirical estimation is made of the economic welfare consequences for Australia of allowing quarantine-restricted trade in New Zealand apples to take place. The results suggest the returns to Australian society from importing New Zealand apples are likely to be negative. The price differential between the landed product with SPS measures in place and the autarkic price is insufficient to outweigh the increase in expected damage resulting from increased fire blight risk. As a consequence, this empirical analysis does not support the opening up of this trade.

Global Establishment Risk of Economically Important Fruit Fly Species (Tephritidae)

1. Species invasions are often linked to reductions in biodiversity, and competitive superiority is often cited as the main reason for the success of an invasive species. Although invaded ecosystems are often examined, few have studied areas in which an invasive species has failed to successfully invade.

Microclimate is integral to the modeling of plant responses to macroclimate

The global invasion of Tephritidae (fruit flies) attracts a great deal of attention in the field of plant quarantine and invasion biology because of their economic importance. Predicting which one in hundreds of potential invasive fruit fly species is most likely to establish in a region presents a significant challenge, but can be facilitated using a self organising map (SOM), which is able to analyse species associations to rank large numbers of species simultaneously with an index of establishment. A global presence/absence dataset including 180 economically significant fruit fly species in 118 countries was analysed using a SOM. We compare and contrast ranked lists from six countries selected from each continent, and also show that those countries geographically close were clustered together by the SOM analysis because they have similar fruit fly assemblages. These closely clustered countries therefore represent greater threats to each other as sources of invasive fruit fly species. Finally, we indicate how this SOM method could be utilized as an initial screen to support prioritizing fruit fly species for further research into their potential to invade a region.

Dark diversity: adding the grey.

It is becoming increasingly evident that microclimate has a large influence on the current distributions of species and their likely responses to climate change (1, 2). De Frenne et al. (3) attempt to highlight the importance of this issue, by assessing how changes in canopy cover have influenced subcanopy microclimates, thereby buffering the responses of understory species to macroclimatic warming over the last 67 y. Here we show that their analysis falls short of actually demonstrating this buffering effect.

Can global weed assemblages be used to predict future weeds

Viewing a problem from a different angle can often provide new insight. Meelis Partel and colleagues recently suggested an interesting and novel way to view the species that are absent from a community; what they call ‘dark diversity’ [1]. The dark diversity for a local community is the pool of species occurring within the region that could inhabit that location but are not currently present. Although it is proposed that this new perspective on missing species can contribute to the understanding and management of natural communities, we point to several important issues that require resolution for the dark diversity concept to be of practical value to ecologists.