Debora Pedrazzoli

Willingness-to-pay for a rapid malaria diagnostic test and artemisinin-based combination therapy from private drug shops in Mukono District, Uganda.

In Uganda, as in many parts of Africa, the majority of the population seek treatment for malaria in drug shops as their first point of care; however, parasitological diagnosis is not usually offered in these outlets. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria have attracted interest in recent years as a tool to improve malaria diagnosis, since they have proved accurate and easy to perform with minimal training. Although RDTs could feasibly be performed by drug shop vendors, it is not known how much customers would be willing to pay for an RDT if offered in these settings. We conducted a contingent valuation survey among drug shop customers in Mukono District, Uganda. Exit interviews were undertaken with customers aged 15 years and above after leaving a drug shop having purchased an antimalarial and/or paracetamol. The bidding game technique was used to elicit the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for an RDT and a course of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with and without RDT confirmation. Factors associated with WTP were investigated using linear regression. The geometric mean WTP for an RDT was US

TIME Impact – a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions

0.53, US

Does antiretroviral therapy reduce HIV-associated tuberculosis incidence to background rates? A national observational cohort study from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland

1.82 for a course of ACT and US

Can tuberculosis patients in resource-constrained settings afford chest radiography?

2.05 for a course of ACT after a positive RDT. Factors strongly associated with a higher WTP for these commodities included having a higher socio-economic status, no fever/malaria in the household in the past 2 weeks and if a malaria diagnosis had been obtained from a qualified health worker prior to visiting the drug shop. The findings further suggest that the WTP for an RDT and a course of ACT among drug shop customers is considerably lower than prevailing and estimated end-user prices for these commodities. Increasing the uptake of ACTs in drug shops and restricting the sale of ACTs to parasitologically confirmed malaria will therefore require additional measures.

Mind the gap: TB trends in the USA and the UK, 2000–2011

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact’s user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it informed the first South African HIV and TB Investment Cases and successfully leveraged additional resources from the National Treasury at a time of austerity. In Ghana, a long-term TIME model-centred interaction with the NTP provided new insights into the local epidemiology and guided resource allocation decisions to improve impact.

Towards cash transfer interventions for tuberculosis prevention, care and control: key operational challenges and research priorities

BACKGROUND Whether the incidence of tuberculosis in HIV-positive people receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains above background population rates is unclear. We compared tuberculosis incidence in people receiving ART with background rates in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. METHODS We analysed a national cohort of HIV-positive individuals linked to the national tuberculosis register. Tuberculosis incidence in the HIV-positive cohort (2007-11) was stratified by ethnic origin and time on ART and compared with background rates (2009). Ethnic groups were defined as follows: the black African group included all individuals of black African origin, including those born in the UK and overseas; the white ethnic group included all white individuals born in the UK and overseas; the south Asian group included those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin, born in the UK and overseas; and the other ethnic group included all other ethnic origins, including black Afro-Caribbeans. FINDINGS The HIV-positive cohort comprised 79 919 individuals, in whom there were 1550 incident cases in 231 664 person-years of observation (incidence 6·7 cases per 1000 person-years). Incidence of tuberculosis in the HIV-positive cohort was 13·6 per 1000 person-years in black Africans and 1·7 per 1000 person-years in white individuals. Incidence of tuberculosis during long-term ART (≥5 years) in black Africans with HIV was 2·4 per 1000 person-years, similar to background rates of 1·9 per 1000 person-years in this group (rate ratio 1·2, 95% CI 0·96-1·6; p=0·083); but in white individuals with HIV on long-term ART the incidence of 0·5 per 1000 person-years was higher than the background rate of 0·04 per 1000 person-years (rate ratio 14·5, 9·4-21·3; p<0·0001). The increased incidence relative to background in white HIV-positive individuals persisted when analysis was restricted to person-time accrued on ART with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per μL and when white HIV-positive individuals born abroad were excluded. INTERPRETATION Tuberculosis incidence is unacceptably high irrespective of HIV status in black Africans. In white individuals with HIV, tuberculosis incidence is significantly higher than background rates in white people despite long-term ART. Expanded testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection to all HIV-infected adults, irrespective of ART status and CD4 cell count, might be warranted. FUNDING Public Health England.

Uptake of neonatal BCG vaccination in England: performance of the current policy recommendations

Even when tuberculosis (TB) care is free, impoverished patients and their households continue to incur unmanageable costs due to seeking and staying in care for the full duration of anti-TB treatment [1]. By aggravating household vulnerability, these costs can prevent or delay diagnosis, treatment and successful outcome, leading to increased TB transmission, morbidity and mortality [2–4]. The new World Health Organization (WHO)s End TB Strategy places greater emphasis on ensuring universal free access to care, and it includes a target of elimination of associated catastrophic costs for TB patients and their households by 2020 [5]. In many low- and middle-income countries chest radiographs are not free of charge for TB patients http://ow.ly/SA7l305Yzk2

Modelling the social and structural determinants of tuberculosis: Opportunities and challenges

Background TB remains a major public health concern, even in low-incidence countries like the USA and the UK. Over the last two decades, cases of TB reported in the USA have declined, while they have increased substantially in the UK. We examined factors associated with this divergence in TB trends between the two countries. Methods We analysed all cases of TB reported to the US and UK national TB surveillance systems from 1 January 2000 through 31 December 2011. Negative binominal regression was used to assess potential demographic, clinical and risk factor variables associated with differences in observed trends. Findings A total of 259 609 cases were reported. From 2000 to 2011, annual TB incidence rates declined from 5.8 to 3.4 cases per 100 000 in the USA, whereas in the UK, TB incidence increased from 11.4 to 14.4 cases per 100 000. The majority of cases in both the USA (56%) and the UK (64%) were among foreign-born persons. The number of foreign-born cases reported in the USA declined by 15% (7731 in 2000 to 6564 in 2011) while native-born cases fell by 54% (8442 in 2000 to 3883 in 2011). In contrast, the number of foreign-born cases reported in the UK increased by 80% (3380 in 2000 to 6088 in 2011), while the number of native-born cases remained largely unchanged (2158 in 2000 to 2137 in 2011). In an adjusted negative binomial regression model, significant differences in trend were associated with sex, age, race/ethnicity, site of disease, HIV status and previous history of TB (p<0.01). Among the foreign-born, significant differences in trend were also associated with time since UK or US entry (p<0.01). Interpretation To achieve TB elimination in the UK, a re-evaluation of current TB control policies and practices with a focus on foreign-born are needed. In the USA, maintaining and strengthening control practices are necessary to sustain the progress made over the last 20 years.

Food assistance to tuberculosis patients: lessons from Afghanistan

BackgroundCash transfer interventions are forms of social protection based on the provision of cash to vulnerable households with the aim of reduce risk, vulnerability, chronic poverty and improve human capital. Such interventions are already an integral part of the response to HIV/AIDS in some settings and have recently been identified as a core element of World Health Organization’s End TB Strategy. However, limited impact evaluations and operational evidence are currently available to inform this policy transition.DiscussionThis paper aims to assist national tuberculosis (TB) programs with this new policy direction by providing them with an overview of concepts and definitions used in the social protection sector and by reviewing some of the most critical operational aspects associated with the implementation of cash transfer interventions. These include: 1) the various implementation models that can be used depending on the context and the public health goal of the intervention; 2) the main challenges associated with the use of conditionalities and how they influence the impact of cash transfer interventions on health-related outcomes; 3) the implication of targeting diseases-affected households and or individuals versus the general population; and 4) the financial sustainability of including health-related objectives within existing cash transfer programmes. We aimed to appraise these issues in the light of TB epidemiology, care and prevention. For our appraisal we draw extensively from the literature on cash transfers and build upon the lessons learnt so far from other health outcomes and mainly HIV/AIDS.ConclusionsThe implementation of cash transfer interventions in the context of TB is still hampered by important knowledge gaps. Initial directions can be certainly derived from the literature on cash transfers schemes and other public health challenges such as HIV/AIDS. However, the development of a solid research agenda to address persisting unknowns on the impact of cash transfers on TB epidemiology and control is vital to inform and support the adoption of the post-2015 End TB strategy.

Risk factors for the misdiagnosis of tuberculosis in the UK, 2001–2011

BCG uptake among infants in England has not been measured since targeted infant vaccination replaced universal schoolchildren vaccination in 2005, mainly because of the challenges in defining denominators. We estimated uptake between 2006 and 2008 by dividing number of BCG doses administered to infants by number of all live births (where BCG vaccination is universal) or ethnic minority/Eastern Europeans live births (where infant-BCG vaccination is selective). Weighted average uptake was 68% (95% CI 65% to 71%), slightly higher in primary care trusts with universal (72% (95% CI 64% to 80%)) than selective (66% (95% CI 61% to 70%)) policy; and also 13% higher in areas vaccinating in postnatal wards compared with community settings.