Laura F Anderson

Assessment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in Oxfordshire, UK, 2007-12, with whole pathogen genome sequences: an observational study.

Summary Background Patients born outside the UK have contributed to a 20% rise in the UK’s tuberculosis incidence since 2000, but their effect on domestic transmission is not known. Here we use whole-genome sequencing to investigate the epidemiology of tuberculosis transmission in an unselected population over 6 years. Methods We identified all residents with Oxfordshire postcodes with a Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture or a clinical diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2012, using local databases and checking against the national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance database. We used Illumina technology to sequence all available M tuberculosis cultures from identified cases. Sequences were clustered by genetic relatedness and compared retrospectively with contact investigations. The first patient diagnosed in each cluster was defined as the index case, with links to subsequent cases assigned first by use of any epidemiological linkage, then by genetic distance, and then by timing of diagnosis. Findings Although we identified 384 patients with a diagnosis of tuberculosis, country of birth was known for 380 and we sequenced isolates from 247 of 269 cases with culture-confirmed disease. 39 cases were genomically linked within 13 clusters, implying 26 local transmission events. Only 11 of 26 possible transmissions had been previously identified through contact tracing. Of seven genomically confirmed household clusters, five contained additional genomic links to epidemiologically unidentified non-household members. 255 (67%) patients were born in a country with high tuberculosis incidence, conferring a local incidence of 109 cases per 100 000 population per year in Oxfordshire, compared with 3·5 cases per 100 000 per year for those born in low-incidence countries. However, patients born in the low-incidence countries, predominantly UK, were more likely to have pulmonary disease (adjusted odds ratio 1·8 [95% CI 1·2–2·9]; p=0·009), social risk factors (4·4 [2·0–9·4]; p<0·0001), and be part of a local transmission cluster (4·8 [1·6–14·8]; p=0·006). Interpretation Although inward migration has contributed to the overall tuberculosis incidence, our findings suggest that most patients born in high-incidence countries reactivate latent infection acquired abroad and are not involved in local onward transmission. Systematic screening of new entrants could further improve tuberculosis control, but it is important that health care remains accessible to all individuals, especially high-risk groups, if tuberculosis control is not to be jeopardised.

Treatment outcome of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis in the United Kingdom: retrospective-prospective cohort study from 2004 to 2007

United Kingdom (UK) guidelines recommend at least 18 months treatment for patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Prior to 2008, data on treatment outcome were only available at 12 months and therefore the proportion completing treatment was unknown. This retrospective-prospective cohort study reports on treatment outcomes for MDR-TB patients notified between 2004 and 2007 and examines factors associated with successful outcomes. 70.6% (144/204) completed treatment in 24 months or more, 6.9% (14) stopped treatment, 6.9% (14) died, 7.8% (16) were lost to follow up, 0.5% (1) relapsed and 4.4% (9) were transferred overseas. Following adjustment for age, being non-UK born, non-compliance and having co-morbidities, treatment with a fluoroquinolone (OR 3.09; 95% CI 1.21-7.88; p<0.05) or bacteriostatic drug (OR 4.23; 95% CI 1.60-11.18; p<0.05) were independently associated with successful treatment outcome. Treatment completion for MDR-TB cases remains below the World Health Organization (WHO) target. Our findings support current WHO guidelines for MDR-TB treatment. The UK should consider adopting individualised regimens based on WHO recommended drugs, taking into account drug sensitivities. Improving treatment completion rates will be key to tackling further drug resistance and transmission from untreated infectious cases.

Transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in the UK: a cross-sectional molecular and epidemiological study of clustering and contact tracing.

BACKGROUND Between 2000 and 2012 the number of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis cases in the UK increased from 28 per year to 81 per year. We investigated the proportion of MDR tuberculosis cases arising from transmission in the UK and associated risk factors. METHOD We identified patients with MDR tuberculosis notified in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2007, by linking national laboratory and surveillance data. Data for laboratory isolates, including drug sensitivities and 24-mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing were obtained routinely from the National Tuberculosis Reference laboratories as part of national tuberculosis surveillance. We investigated clusters of cases with indistinguishable MIRU-VNTR profiles to identify epidemiological links. We calculated transmission using the n-1 method and established associated risk factors by logistic regression. We also assessed the likelihood of transmission to additional secondary active tuberculosis cases, identified through conventional contact tracing. FINDINGS 204 patients were diagnosed with MDR tuberculosis in the study period; 189 (92·6%) had an MIRU-VNTR profile. We identified 12 clusters containing 40 individuals and 149 unique strains. The proportion of cases attributable to recent transmission, on the basis of molecular data, was 15% (40 cases clustered-12 clusters/189 with a strain type). The proportion of cases attributable to recent transmission (ie, transmission within the UK) after adjustment for epidemiological links was 8·5% (22 cases with epidemiological links-six clusters/189 cases with a strain type). Being UK born (odds ratio 4·81; 95% CI 2·03-11·36, p=0·0005) and illicit drug use (4·75; 1·19-18·96, p=0·026) were significantly associated with clustering. The most common transmission setting was the household but 21 of 22 of epidemiological links were missed by conventional contact tracing. 13 secondary active tuberculosis cases identified by conventional contact tracing were mostly contacts of patients with MDR tuberculosis from countries of high tuberculosis burden. 11 (85%) of 13 shared the same country of birth as the index case, of whom ten did not share a strain type or drug resistance pattern. INTERPRETATION Transmission of MDR tuberculosis in the UK is low and associated with being UK born or illicit drug use. MIRU-VNTR typing with cluster investigation was more successful at identifying transmission events than conventional contact tracing. Individuals with tuberculosis who have had contact with a known MDR tuberculosis source case from a country of high tuberculosis burden should have drug-sensitivity testing on isolates to ensure appropriate treatment is given. FUNDING Public Health England.

Investigating Transmission of Mycobacterium bovis in the United Kingdom in 2005 to 2008

ABSTRACT Due to an increase in bovine tuberculosis in cattle in the United Kingdom, we investigated the characteristics of Mycobacterium bovis infection in humans and assessed whether extensive transmission of M. bovis between humans has occurred. A cross-sectional study linking demographic, clinical, and DNA fingerprinting (using 15-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit–variable-number tandem-repeat [MIRU-VNTR] typing) data on cases reported between 2005 and 2008 was undertaken. A total of 129 cases of M. bovis infection in humans were reported over the period, with a decrease in annual incidence from 0.065 to 0.047 cases per 100,000 persons. Most patients were born pre-1960, before widespread pasteurization was introduced (73%), were of white ethnicity (83%), and were born in the United Kingdom (76%). A total of 102 patients (79%) had MIRU-VNTR typing data. A total of 31 of 69 complete MIRU-VNTR profiles formed eight distinct clusters. The overall clustering proportion determined using the n − 1 method was 33%. The largest cluster, comprising 12 cases, was indistinguishable from a previously reported West Midlands outbreak strain cluster and included those cases. This cluster was heterogeneous, having characteristics supporting recent zoonotic and human-to-human transmission as well as reactivation of latent disease. Seven other, smaller clusters identified had demographics supporting recrudescence rather than recent infection. A total of 33 patients had incomplete MIRU-VNTR profiles, of which 11 may have yielded 2 to 6 further small clusters if typed to completion. The incidence of M. bovis in humans in the United Kingdom remains low, and the epidemiology is predominantly that of reactivated disease.

Recent TB transmission, clustering and predictors of large clusters in London, 2010–2012: results from first 3 years of universal MIRU-VNTR strain typing

Background The incidence of TB has doubled in the last 20 years in London. A better understanding of risk groups for recent transmission is required to effectively target interventions. We investigated the molecular epidemiological characteristics of TB cases to estimate the proportion of cases due to recent transmission, and identify predictors for belonging to a cluster. Methods The study population included all culture-positive TB cases in London residents, notified between January 2010 and December 2012, strain typed using 24-loci multiple interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeats. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk factors for clustering using sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of cases and for cluster size based on the characteristics of the first two cases. Results There were 10 147 cases of which 5728 (57%) were culture confirmed and 4790 isolates (84%) were typed. 2194 (46%) were clustered in 570 clusters, and the estimated proportion attributable to recent transmission was 34%. Clustered cases were more likely to be UK born, have pulmonary TB, a previous diagnosis, a history of substance abuse or alcohol abuse and imprisonment, be of white, Indian, black-African or Caribbean ethnicity. The time between notification of the first two cases was more likely to be <90 days in large clusters. Conclusions Up to a third of TB cases in London may be due to recent transmission. Resources should be directed to the timely investigation of clusters involving cases with risk factors, particularly those with a short period between the first two cases, to interrupt onward transmission of TB.

Does antiretroviral therapy reduce HIV-associated tuberculosis incidence to background rates? A national observational cohort study from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland

BACKGROUND Whether the incidence of tuberculosis in HIV-positive people receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains above background population rates is unclear. We compared tuberculosis incidence in people receiving ART with background rates in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. METHODS We analysed a national cohort of HIV-positive individuals linked to the national tuberculosis register. Tuberculosis incidence in the HIV-positive cohort (2007-11) was stratified by ethnic origin and time on ART and compared with background rates (2009). Ethnic groups were defined as follows: the black African group included all individuals of black African origin, including those born in the UK and overseas; the white ethnic group included all white individuals born in the UK and overseas; the south Asian group included those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin, born in the UK and overseas; and the other ethnic group included all other ethnic origins, including black Afro-Caribbeans. FINDINGS The HIV-positive cohort comprised 79 919 individuals, in whom there were 1550 incident cases in 231 664 person-years of observation (incidence 6·7 cases per 1000 person-years). Incidence of tuberculosis in the HIV-positive cohort was 13·6 per 1000 person-years in black Africans and 1·7 per 1000 person-years in white individuals. Incidence of tuberculosis during long-term ART (≥5 years) in black Africans with HIV was 2·4 per 1000 person-years, similar to background rates of 1·9 per 1000 person-years in this group (rate ratio 1·2, 95% CI 0·96-1·6; p=0·083); but in white individuals with HIV on long-term ART the incidence of 0·5 per 1000 person-years was higher than the background rate of 0·04 per 1000 person-years (rate ratio 14·5, 9·4-21·3; p<0·0001). The increased incidence relative to background in white HIV-positive individuals persisted when analysis was restricted to person-time accrued on ART with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per μL and when white HIV-positive individuals born abroad were excluded. INTERPRETATION Tuberculosis incidence is unacceptably high irrespective of HIV status in black Africans. In white individuals with HIV, tuberculosis incidence is significantly higher than background rates in white people despite long-term ART. Expanded testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection to all HIV-infected adults, irrespective of ART status and CD4 cell count, might be warranted. FUNDING Public Health England.

Mind the gap: TB trends in the USA and the UK, 2000–2011

Background TB remains a major public health concern, even in low-incidence countries like the USA and the UK. Over the last two decades, cases of TB reported in the USA have declined, while they have increased substantially in the UK. We examined factors associated with this divergence in TB trends between the two countries. Methods We analysed all cases of TB reported to the US and UK national TB surveillance systems from 1 January 2000 through 31 December 2011. Negative binominal regression was used to assess potential demographic, clinical and risk factor variables associated with differences in observed trends. Findings A total of 259 609 cases were reported. From 2000 to 2011, annual TB incidence rates declined from 5.8 to 3.4 cases per 100 000 in the USA, whereas in the UK, TB incidence increased from 11.4 to 14.4 cases per 100 000. The majority of cases in both the USA (56%) and the UK (64%) were among foreign-born persons. The number of foreign-born cases reported in the USA declined by 15% (7731 in 2000 to 6564 in 2011) while native-born cases fell by 54% (8442 in 2000 to 3883 in 2011). In contrast, the number of foreign-born cases reported in the UK increased by 80% (3380 in 2000 to 6088 in 2011), while the number of native-born cases remained largely unchanged (2158 in 2000 to 2137 in 2011). In an adjusted negative binomial regression model, significant differences in trend were associated with sex, age, race/ethnicity, site of disease, HIV status and previous history of TB (p<0.01). Among the foreign-born, significant differences in trend were also associated with time since UK or US entry (p<0.01). Interpretation To achieve TB elimination in the UK, a re-evaluation of current TB control policies and practices with a focus on foreign-born are needed. In the USA, maintaining and strengthening control practices are necessary to sustain the progress made over the last 20 years.

A Geographically-Restricted but Prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strain Identified in the West Midlands Region of the UK between 1995 and 2008

Background We describe the identification of, and risk factors for, the single most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in the West Midlands region of the UK. Methodology/Principal Findings Prospective 15-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping of all M. tuberculosis isolates in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 was undertaken. Two retrospective epidemiological investigations were also undertaken using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The first study of all TB patients in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 identified a single prevalent strain in each of the study years (total 155/3,056 (5%) isolates). This prevalent MIRU-VNTR profile (32333 2432515314 434443183) remained clustered after typing with an additional 9-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. The majority of these patients (122/155, 79%) resided in three major cities located within a 40 km radius. From the apparent geographical restriction, we have named this the “Mercian” strain. A multivariate analysis of all TB patients in the West Midlands identified that infection with a Mercian strain was significantly associated with being UK-born (OR = 9.03, 95%CI = 4.56–17.87, p<0.01), Black Caribbean (OR = 5.68, 95%CI = 2.96–10.91, p<0.01) resident in Wolverhampton (OR = 9.29, 95%CI = 5.69–15.19, p<0.01) and negatively associated with age >65 years old (OR = 0.25, 95%CI = 0.09–0.67, p<0.01). A second more detailed investigation analyzed a cohort of 82 patients resident in Wolverhampton between 2003 and 2006. A significant association with being born in the UK remained after a multivariate analysis (OR = 9.68, 95%CI = 2.00–46.78, p<0.01) and excess alcohol intake and cannabis use (OR = 6.26, 95%CI = 1.45–27.02, p = .01) were observed as social risk factors for infection. Conclusions/Significance The continued consistent presence of the Mercian strain suggests ongoing community transmission. Whilst significant associations have been found, there may be other common risk factors yet to be identified. Future investigations should focus on targeting the relevant risk groups and elucidating the biological factors that mediate continued transmission of this strain.

A tale of two settings: the role of the Beijing genotype in the epidemiology of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

To the Editor: Described as a “template for success” by Hanekom et al. [1] the Beijing genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis has been associated with hypervirulence, drug resistance, evasion of the bacille Calmette–Guerin (BCG) vaccine and differential immunoregulation [1]. The genotype is itself diverse; accordingly the fact that specific traits have been associated with Beijing only in certain settings may be explained by the variation in the subtypes that predominate in each. We sought to explore the role that the Beijing genotype plays in the epidemiology of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) in two very different epidemiological settings: England and Peru. In the UK nearly three quarters of TB disease occurs amongst migrants, which may result from latent M. tuberculosis infections acquired from high-burden countries of origin. Thus the distribution of lineages in the UK reflects a composite of the circulating strains in other nations. Whilst increasing levels of MDR-TB in the UK have triggered understandable concern, only a small fraction of cases of TB are MDR (in 2011 this was 1.0%) [2]. In contrast, the Peruvian TB epidemic is relatively “home-grown” and the prevalence of drug resistance is greater (in 2011 5.3% were MDR-TB) [2]. Our objectives were thus: 1) identify any association between the Beijing genotype and MDR in these two settings, and 2) to examine if trends in Beijing might explain changes in the prevalence of MDR-TB over time. Four datasets were used during this study: two English studies and two Peruvian studies. The English datasets were taken from Public Health Englands Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System and Mycobacterial Surveillance Network and were referred to as England 1 and England 2. England 1 consisted of 8 859 individuals diagnosed and 24-loci MIRU-VNTR (mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units variable number tandem repeats) strain-typed …

Incidence and risk factors for drug intolerance and association with incomplete treatment for tuberculosis: analysis of national case registers for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2001–2010

Anti-tuberculosis drug regimens are efficacious, but drug intolerance can be severe and may impact on treatment completion rates. The Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance (ETS) system is a case register of all new notifications of tuberculosis in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. We conducted a cohort study to estimate the incidence of, and risk factors for, drug intolerance reported through ETS between 2001 and 2010 and to assess its relationship with treatment non-completion. Reports of drug intolerance were found for 868/67 547 (1.28%) patients in the cohort, and important risk factors were female sex, older age, later case report year and white ethnicity. Drug intolerance was associated with an approximate fivefold increased odds of treatment non-completion (p<0.001). These results highlight the need for better-tolerated drug regimens and close case management of patients at risk of drug intolerance to improve treatment completion rates and contribute to more effective disease control.