Deborah Roberts

The CAP and the regions : the territorial impact of the common agricultural policy

Introduction The Common Agricultural Policy EU Structural Policies and the ESDP The Territorial Distribution of CAP / RDP Support Adjustments and Impacts of the CAP / RDP The CAP / RDP Reforms in the EU-15 and the NMSS The CAP / RDP in the Context of EU Spatial Policy Ways Forward in Rural Development Conclusions and Policy Proposals

Who gets the jobs? Factors influencing the employability of property and construction graduates in the UK

Against a background of a strongly performing property market, the last decade saw a significant rise in numbers of entrants to undergraduate and postgraduate built environment programmes in the UK. The growth in postgraduate numbers reflected the emergence of conversion programmes with the result that, across a range of built environment pathways, employers can choose between different types of graduate: those straight from an undergraduate degree, those who have completed an additional postgraduate course or those who have taken, following a first degree in another discipline, a conversion programme in property or construction at postgraduate level. A bivariate probit modelling approach is used to explore whether having a postgraduate taught (PGT) qualification systematically improves the probability of finding graduate level employment. Different built environment programmes are considered, while controlling for other factors that may influence employment outcomes, including university type, mode of study, gender, ethnicity and age. The results suggest that a postgraduate degree in land and property management significantly increases the probability of gaining graduate level employment, but this is not so for construction, quantity surveying or building surveying. The findings are discussed in the wider context of changes in UK higher education.

Ex-ante analysis of the regional impacts of the common agricultural policy:a rural-urban recursive dynamic CGE model approach

Abstract A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.

Ex-ante Spatial Policy Impact Analysis of the Rural Development policy in European Rural Areas (RURAL ECMOD)

The present study aims at modelling the impact of different CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) scenarios on 6 case study regional economies. The starting point is the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) obtained through a combination of mechanical downscaling of higher level input-output data with superior data, followed by a balancing procedure. A number of key elements facilitate the simulation of the policy scenarios: disaggregation of agricultural sector by farm size and the rural-urban disaggregation of activities and households. Policy scenarios focus on the impacts of relatively major changes in agricultural and rural policy (change in the balance between CAP pillars 1 and 2 or redistribution of funding within CAP pillar 2 – rural development policy). Models used are recursive dynamic CGE models, solved one year at a time, over the period 2006 to 2020. Policy measures are modelled on the base of RDP spending mapped for each region into investments in specific SAM sectors Economy wide effects of all scenarios remain limited, but slightly more important and significant when looking at the specifically rural economy. On the base of a limited number of case study areas, it seems that diversification policy mixes for rural development are in all cases beneficial to rural economies, while policy mixes focusing on agriculture competitiveness and public goods is only economically beneficial at short term and in rural, peripheral and agriculture-centred areas.

Do Incomers Pay More for Rural Housing

The paper explores whether incomers pay a price premium for rural housing and, if so, whether it varies according to the origin of the buyer. Empirical analysis focuses on Aberdeenshire, Scotland, distinguishing between housing in the accessible and remote rural locations within the region. Buyers originating from Aberdeen city are found to pay more than locals in accessible rural housing markets, with the price premium highest in the high-quality housing-market segment. There is, however, no evidence that a price premium is paid by in-migrants from more distant locations. In contrast, consistent with information asymmetry and higher search costs, buyers from the rest of the UK are found to pay significantly more for high-quality properties in the remote rural area. From a methodological perspective the findings support the use of multilevel models which allow for unobserved neighbourhood effects.

The Economic Integration of New Sectors in Rural Areas: A Case Study of the Shetland Economy

A temporal structural path analysis of the Shetland Islands from 1971 to 2003 is used to describe the process by which two new sectors associated with the discovery of North Sea oil became integrated into the wider Shetland economy. The results confirm that it can take considerable time for incoming sectors to become integrated within an economy and that integration may increase when a sector is in decline. It is argued that structural path analysis provides complementary insights into the process of economic integration which are complementary to those gained from more standard multiplier techniques, and that both are useful to rural development analysts charged with maximising the benefits of incoming sectors and/or minimising the adverse effects of a sector in decline.

Small Towns and Agriculture: Understanding the Spatial Pattern of Farm Linkages

Abstract Agricultural policy and farm lobby groups often stress the role of farm production in sustaining local economies. This paper considers the spatial pattern of upstream and downstream agricultural transactions of farms in North East Scotland and, in particular, the extent to which they take place within the locality of the farm holding. Three alternative definitions of “local” are considered: a distance-based measure; a measure which takes into account the location of the farm in relation to the nearest town; and a measure which takes into account the location of agribusinesses, defining a transaction as local if the farmer buys from (sells to) the nearest available input supplier (output purchaser). The results highlight the importance of allowing for context when explaining farmer purchasing and sales decisions. They also reveal a highly complex pattern of production-related linkages in the region, with many farmers choosing to bypass their most proximate agribusinesses. Certain towns are found to dominate agriculture-related transactions in the region, reflecting the spatial concentration of upstream and downstream agribusinesses. The findings provide new insights into theoretical debates on the role of small towns in the urban system and the changing importance of geographical distance in determining business transactions.

Income Elasticities of Food Demand in Africa: A Meta-Analysis

In order to combat malnutrition, economists and policymakers need to understand how food demand will change, as the continent further develops. Especially, a better understanding of, first, the factors underlying the relation between income and food demand, and, second, how this relation is changing according to the income level and/or characteristics of the country under study, may help improve the design and implementation of nutrition policies. There are a number of studies that have estimated the relation between income growth and food demand in Africa, but the resulting estimates are highly heterogeneous. This report provides a systematic review of the existing literature on income elasticities of food demand in Africa. Using a meta-analysis approach, this report identifies the factors determining the relation between food demand and income. Further research could usefully explore in greater detail some of the patterns identified and, in doing so, contribute to the design of policies aimed at addressing malnutrition.

The economics of alternative crop production systems in the context of farmer participation in carbon trading markets

ABSTRACT Using scaled up data from an experimental farm platform in Scotland, we examined the relative economics of a conventional and a low-carbon integrated management system for two (otherwise identical) farms. By employing a novel market-based approach, we factored the market costs of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the relative economics of both systems. Specifically, farmers are considered to be awarded emission credits in accordance with Scotland’s agricultural emissions reduction targets. Farmers are then considered to trade their net GHG emissions in an emissions trading scheme, with the integrated system expected to benefit from this arrangement due to its lower emissions. In further sensitivity analyses, we also considered the effect of premium pricing of integrated system crops on the relative economics of both systems. We find that in both the status quo and emissions trading scenarios, the conventional system is significantly more profitable. In the emissions trading scenario, an emissions price roughly three times the reported median prices over the last five years is required for the integrated system’s profitability to break-even with the conventional system. However, even at prevailing emissions prices, a 20% premium pricing of the integrated system crops enables near parity in the profitability of both systems. We conclude that in order to facilitate greater adoption of low-carbon systems, policies may be needed to encourage farmers’ realization of the cost of their externalities, in particular GHG emissions. At the same time, support should be given to a market system that recognizes premium prices for low-carbon system products.

Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

ABSTRACT The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.