Sébastien Mary

Prospects of the farming sector and rural development in view of food security: The case of the Russian Federation

As the recent situation on world food markets has been increasingly volatile and has been associated with relatively higher food prices, contributing to demonstrations and riots across the world, Russias agriculture has attracted much attention from economists, experts and policy-makers because they believe that the country could become the worlds largest and most reliable grain producer and exporter. In that context, the aim of this report is to evaluate the role of the Russian Federation towards fulfilling domestic food security and more importantly global food security in the short and medium run. In particular, the study aims at examining if Russian farms could substantially increase further their respective output and export levels. The methodology followed in this report is a bottom-up approach, i.e. going from the farm (i.e. microeconomic level) to the food market (i.e. macroeconomic level), that explicitly considers the analysis of food security at the farm level and therefore complements well other works which study the agri-food sector in Russia at a more aggregated level. The perspective of the report is made possible by the use of a wide range of farm-level databases that are, for most, only available to Russian researchers and allow going into a more disaggregated and detailed level of analysis.

Economics of Food Security: Selected Issues

The present article reviews selected key challenges regarding food security from both an academic and policy-oriented angle. In the analysis of the main constraints to achieve food access and availability in low and high-income societies, a detailed distinction is made between technological and institutional aspects. In the case of low-income economies, the emphasis is placed on the socio-economic situation and performance of small-scale farmers while in high-income economies the focus is shifted towards issues of price volatility, market stability and food waste. In both scenarios, productivity and efficiency in the use of resources are also considered. The objective of this assessment is to identify the type of policy support which would be most suitable to fulfil the increasing food demand. Innovation programmes and policies which integrate institutional coordination and technical support are put forward as strategic tools in the achievement of food security goals at regional and global level.

Ex-ante analysis of the regional impacts of the common agricultural policy:a rural-urban recursive dynamic CGE model approach

Abstract A recursive dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is developed to assess the economic impacts of two Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in six NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) (NUTS-1: major socio-economic regions, NUTS-2: basic regions for the application of regional policies, NUTS-3: small regions for specific diagnoses) regions of the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to assess the scenario effects (change in production, prices, income, employment) in the rural and urban parts of these regions as well as on the different sectors. The two scenarios analysed are related to a 30% reduction in Pillar 1 (market measures and direct support to farmers) support and the introduction of an EU-wide flat rate level of Pillar 1 support complemented by a 45% increase in Pillar 2 (Rural Development Policy) funds. Results show that the overall gross domestic product effects are not significant, due to the relatively low importance of both the agricultural sector and CAP spending in the regional economies. However, impacts on the agricultural sector are quite important and differ according to the nature of the policy shock. Also, the structural characteristics of each case study influence the rural–urban and sectoral spillovers, including impacts on region-specific agricultural activity.

Ex-ante Spatial Policy Impact Analysis of the Rural Development policy in European Rural Areas (RURAL ECMOD)

The present study aims at modelling the impact of different CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) scenarios on 6 case study regional economies. The starting point is the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) obtained through a combination of mechanical downscaling of higher level input-output data with superior data, followed by a balancing procedure. A number of key elements facilitate the simulation of the policy scenarios: disaggregation of agricultural sector by farm size and the rural-urban disaggregation of activities and households. Policy scenarios focus on the impacts of relatively major changes in agricultural and rural policy (change in the balance between CAP pillars 1 and 2 or redistribution of funding within CAP pillar 2 – rural development policy). Models used are recursive dynamic CGE models, solved one year at a time, over the period 2006 to 2020. Policy measures are modelled on the base of RDP spending mapped for each region into investments in specific SAM sectors Economy wide effects of all scenarios remain limited, but slightly more important and significant when looking at the specifically rural economy. On the base of a limited number of case study areas, it seems that diversification policy mixes for rural development are in all cases beneficial to rural economies, while policy mixes focusing on agriculture competitiveness and public goods is only economically beneficial at short term and in rural, peripheral and agriculture-centred areas.

Does the sectoral composition of growth affect child stunting reductions

This article uses a natural experiment based on random and exogenous variations in temperature to examine whether the sectoral composition of growth has an effect on child stunting reductions. Agricultural growth is central to food security strategies in developing countries, as it is often considered the most effective way to fight (child) undernutrition. The evidence base to support the putative superior role of agricultural growth is, however, relatively weak, possibly because studies have ignored growth faltering. Accounting for the latter, we find that while both agricultural and non‐agricultural growth decrease stunting, agricultural growth is significantly superior to non‐agricultural growth in this regard. The estimated impacts are large, in that a 10% increase in agricultural GDP per capita reduces child stunting by 9.6% (as opposed to 8.4% for non‐agricultural).

Rural-urban social accounting matrixes for modelling the impact of rural development policies in the EU

This report complements previous work and builds NUTS3 SAMs for twelve regions, following a careful approach, that we call the expert approach. This report investigates the results of this approach by running some simple policy simulations and providing the structural descriptions of these regions. Further, this report aims at producing testing a more automatic approach to the construction of NUTS3 SAMs, to a view of reducing the necessary time and data requirements. Using several examples, this report examines whether such automatic approach can provide reliable SAMs at NUTS3 level. It finally draws conclusions as to the usefulness of both approaches in providing tools for further policy analysis in the field of rural development policy analysis.

A classification of European NUTS3 regions

Over the years a number of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms have led to the emergence of a CAP chapter specifically dedicated to rural development, also referred as Pillar 2, and have resulted in a progressive switch of CAP budget from Pillar 1 (i.e. direct support to farmers, including direct payments and other instruments for market regulation) to Pillar 2. Approximately 23 per cent of the CAP should be allocated to rural development measures during the period 2014-2020. The recent development of Pillar 2 calls for further research on the impact assessment of such policies. Unfortunately, the diversity of rural situations across Europe has complicated the empirical studies of the impacts of rural development and often makes any comparison between regions rather trivial. The main objective of this report is the creation of a classification of 1303 NUTS3 regions, which reflects the heterogeneity of NUTS3 characteristics in the EU. This classification is multidimensional. In particular, the typology is based on the following set of four criteria: Rural Character, Accessibility, Actual economic diversification and Total Gross Domestic Product per capita. Such classification will facilitate the comparison of rural development policy impacts between regions of interest across Europe.