Deborah Wentworth

Diabetes, Other Risk Factors, and 12-Yr Cardiovascular Mortality for Men Screened in the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

OBJECTIVE To assess predictors of CVD mortality among men with and without diabetes and to assess the independent effect of diabetes on the risk of CVD death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Participants in this cohort study were screened from 1973 to 1975; vital status has been ascertained over an average of 12 yr of follow-up (range 11–13 yr). Participants were 347,978 men aged 35–57 yr, screened in 20 centers for MRFIT. The outcome measure was CVD mortality. RESULTS Among 5163 men who reported taking medication for diabetes, 1092 deaths (603 CVD deaths) occurred in an average of 12 yr of follow-up. Among 342,815 men not taking medication for diabetes, 20,867 deaths were identified, 8965 ascribed to CVD. Absolute risk of CVD death was much higher for diabetic than nondiabetic men of every age stratum, ethnic background, and risk factor level—overall three times higher, with adjustment for age, race, income, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and reported number of cigarettes/day (P < 0.0001). For men both with and without diabetes, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of CVD mortality. For diabetic men with higher values for each risk factor and their combinations, absolute risk of CVD death increased more steeply than for nondiabetic men, so that absolute excess risk for diabetic men was progressively greater than for nondiabetic men with higher risk factor levels. CONCLUSIONS These findings emphasize the importance of rigorous sustained intervention in people with diabetes to control blood pressure, lower serum cholesterol, and abolish cigarette smoking, and the importance of considering nutritional-hygienic approaches on a mass scale to prevent diabetes.

Serum cholesterol, blood pressure and mortality : implications from a cohort of 361,662 men

The risks associated with various levels of serum cholesterol were determined by analysis of 6-year mortality in 361,662 men aged 35-57. Above the 20th percentile for serum cholesterol (greater than 181 mg/dl, greater than 4.68 mmol/l), coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality increased progressively; the relative risk was large (3.8) in the men with cholesterol levels above the 85th percentile (greater than 253 mg/dl, greater than 6.54 mmol/l). When men below the 20th cholesterol percentile were used as the baseline risk group, half of all CHD deaths were associated with raised serum cholesterol concentrations; half of these excess deaths were in men with cholesterol levels above the 85th percentile. For both CHD and total mortality, serum cholesterol was similar to diastolic blood pressure in the shape of the risk curve and in the size of the high-risk group. This new evidence supports the policy of a moderate fat intake for the general population and intensive treatment for those at high risk. There is a striking analogy between serum cholesterol and blood pressure in the epidemiological basis for identifying a large segment of the population (10-15%) for intensive treatment.

Serum Cholesterol Levels and Six-Year Mortality from Stroke in 350,977 Men Screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

We examined the relation between the serum total cholesterol level and the risk of death from stroke during six years of follow-up in 350,977 men, 35 to 57 years of age, who had no history of heart attack and were not currently being treated for diabetes mellitus. The diagnosis of stroke and the type of stroke were obtained from death certificates. Using proportional-hazards regression to control for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, and race or ethnic group, we found that the six-year risk of death from intracranial hemorrhage (International Classification of Diseases, ninth edition [ICD-9], categories 431 and 432) was three times higher in men with serum cholesterol levels under 4.14 mmol per liter (160 mg per deciliter) than in those with higher cholesterol levels (P = 0.05 by omnibus test across five cholesterol levels). On the other hand, a positive association was observed between the serum cholesterol level and death from nonhemorrhagic stroke (P = 0.007). The inverse association of the serum cholesterol level with the risk of death from intracranial hemorrhage was confined to men with diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 90 mm Hg, in whom death from intracranial hemorrhage is relatively common. We conclude that there is an inverse relation between the serum cholesterol level and the risk of death from hemorrhagic stroke in middle-aged American men, but that its public health impact is overwhelmed by the positive association of higher serum cholesterol levels with death from nonhemorrhagic stroke and total cardiovascular disease (ICD-9 categories 390 through 459).

Overall and coronary heart disease mortality rates in relation to major risk factors in 325,348 men screened for the MRFIT

The influence of risk factors on CHD and all-cause mortality rates in 35- to 57-year-old men is examined by means of data on 325,348 white men who were screened for the MRFIT. This large data set permits an unusually detailed analysis of factors associated with the 6968 deaths, including 2426 ascribed to CHD, that were detected in the Social Security Administration data set during 6 years of follow-up. Simple cross classification of the data confirms the independent effect of serum cholesterol concentration, diastolic blood pressure, and cigarette smoking as risk factors for CHD and all-cause mortality rates. A distinct escalation of risk is noted for combinations of these risk factors. The strength of the association of each of the risk factors with CHD and all-cause mortality rates diminished with increasing age, although the number of excess deaths attributable to the risk factors increased because of the higher death rates in older men. Comparison of these findings with those observed in the five populations studied in the Pooling Project revealed an overall similarity in the risk relationships. It is estimated that elimination of these risk factors has the potential for reducing the CHD mortality rate by two thirds in 35- to 45-year old men, and by one half in 46- to 57-year-old men.

A randomized study of antiretroviral management based on plasma genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing in patients failing therapy

ObjectiveTo determine the short-term effects of using genotypic antiretroviral resistance testing (GART) with expert advice in the management of patients failing on a protease inhibitor and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. DesignProspective randomized controlled trial. SettingMulticenter community-based clinical trials network. PatientsOne-hundred and fifty-three HIV-infected adults with a threefold or greater rise in plasma HIV-1 RNA on at least 16 weeks of combination antiretroviral therapy. InterventionsRandomization was either to a GART group, where genotype interpretation and suggested regimens were provided to clinicians, or to a no-GART group, where treatment choices were made without such input. Main outcomes measuresPlasma HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4 cell counts were measured at 4, 8, and 12 weeks following randomization. The primary endpoint was change in HIV-1 RNA levels from baseline to the average of the 4 and 8 week levels. ResultsThe average baseline CD4 cell count was 230 × 106 cells/l and the median HIV-1 RNA was 28 085 copies/ml. At entry, 82 patients were failing on regimens containing indinavir, 51 on nelfinavir, 11 on ritonavir, and nine on saquinavir. HIV-1 RNA, averaged at 4 and 8 weeks, decreased by 1.19 log10 for the 78 GART patients and -0.61 log10 for the 75 no-GART patients (treatment difference: −0.53 log, 95% confidence interval, −0.77 to −0.29;P  = 0.00001). Overall, the best virologic responses occurred in patients who received three or more drugs to which their HIV-1 appeared to be susceptible. ConclusionIn patients failing triple drug therapy, GART with expert advice was superior to no-GART as measured by short-term viral load responses.

Interleukin-2 therapy in patients with HIV infection.

BACKGROUND Used in combination with antiretroviral therapy, subcutaneous recombinant interleukin-2 raises CD4+ cell counts more than does antiretroviral therapy alone. The clinical implication of these increases is not known. METHODS We conducted two trials: the Subcutaneous Recombinant, Human Interleukin-2 in HIV-Infected Patients with Low CD4+ Counts under Active Antiretroviral Therapy (SILCAAT) study and the Evaluation of Subcutaneous Proleukin in a Randomized International Trial (ESPRIT). In each, patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who had CD4+ cell counts of either 50 to 299 per cubic millimeter (SILCAAT) or 300 or more per cubic millimeter (ESPRIT) were randomly assigned to receive interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy or antiretroviral therapy alone. The interleukin-2 regimen consisted of cycles of 5 consecutive days each, administered at 8-week intervals. The SILCAAT study involved six cycles and a dose of 4.5 million IU of interleukin-2 twice daily; ESPRIT involved three cycles and a dose of 7.5 million IU twice daily. Additional cycles were recommended to maintain the CD4+ cell count above predefined target levels. The primary end point of both studies was opportunistic disease or death from any cause. RESULTS In the SILCAAT study, 1695 patients (849 receiving interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy and 846 receiving antiretroviral therapy alone) who had a median CD4+ cell count of 202 cells per cubic millimeter were enrolled; in ESPRIT, 4111 patients (2071 receiving interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy and 2040 receiving antiretroviral therapy alone) who had a median CD4+ cell count of 457 cells per cubic millimeter were enrolled. Over a median follow-up period of 7 to 8 years, the CD4+ cell count was higher in the interleukin-2 group than in the group receiving antiretroviral therapy alone--by 53 and 159 cells per cubic millimeter, on average, in the SILCAAT study and ESPRIT, respectively. Hazard ratios for opportunistic disease or death from any cause with interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy (vs. antiretroviral therapy alone) were 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70 to 1.18; P=0.47) in the SILCAAT study and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.16; P=0.55) in ESPRIT. The hazard ratios for death from any cause and for grade 4 clinical events were 1.06 (P=0.73) and 1.10 (P=0.35), respectively, in the SILCAAT study and 0.90 (P=0.42) and 1.23 (P=0.003), respectively, in ESPRIT. CONCLUSIONS Despite a substantial and sustained increase in the CD4+ cell count, as compared with antiretroviral therapy alone, interleukin-2 plus antiretroviral therapy yielded no clinical benefit in either study. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00004978 [ESPRIT] and NCT00013611 [SILCAAT study].)

Mortality associated with diastolic hypertension and isolated systolic hypertension among men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial.

The large cohort of white men (317,871) 35 to 57 years old at initial screening for possible enrollment into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT) was examined with regard to initial blood pressure levels and subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and all-cause mortality. The overall prevalence of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) greater than or equal to 160 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) less than 90 mm Hg, was 0.67% among white men screened for MRFIT and increased with age (0.31% among 35- to 39-year-olds to 1.7% among 55- to 57-year-olds). The 6 year CHD and all-cause mortality rates in men over 50 were highest in those with ISH compared with both subjects with diastolic hypertension and those with normal pressure. The relative risk of death from stroke in those with ISH, compared with that in those with SBP less than 160 mm Hg and those with DBP less than 90 mm Hg, was 3.0 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 6.8). In addition, at any level of DBP, the level of SBP appeared to be the major determinant of all-cause and CHD mortality. The determinants of ISH in individuals under 60 years of age as well as the possible efficacy of its treatment should be evaluated further.

Socioeconomic differentials in mortality risk among men screened for the multiple risk factor intervention trial: I. White men

OBJECTIVES This study examined socioeconomic differentials in risk of death from a number of specific causes in a large cohort of White men in the United States. METHODS For 300 685 White men screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial between 1973 and 1975, data were collected on median income of White households in the zip code of residence, age, cigarette smoking, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, previous myocardial infarction, and drug treatment for diabetes. The 31 737 deaths that occurred over the 16-year follow-up period were grouped into specific causes and related to median White family income. RESULTS There was an inverse association between age- adjusted all-cause mortality and median family income. There was no attenuation of this association over the follow-up period, and the association was similar for the 22 clinical centers carrying out the screening. The gradient was seen for many-but not all-of the specific causes of death. Other risk factors accounted for some of the association between income and coronary heart disease and smoking-related cancers. CONCLUSIONS Socioeconomic position, as measured by median family income of area of residence, is an important determinant of mortality risk in White men.

Mortality differences between black and white men in the USA: contribution of income and other risk factors among men screened for the MRFIT

BACKGROUND Studies of underlying differences in adult mortality between black and white individuals in the USA have been constrained by limitations of data or small study size. We investigated the extent to which differences in socioeconomic position between black and white men contribute to differences in all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS 361,662 men were screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial between 1973 and 1975, in 22 sites. Median family income of households by zipcode (postal) area of residence was available for 20,224 black and 300,685 white men as well as data on age, cigarette smoking, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, previous heart attack, and treatment for diabetes. We classified deaths during 16 years of follow-up into specific causes and compared differences in death rates between black men and white men, before and after adjustment for differences in income and other risk factors. FINDINGS Age-adjusted relative risk of death (black vs white) was 1.47 (95% CI 1.42-1.53). Adjustment for diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, cigarette smoking, medication for diabetes, and previous admission to hospital for heart attack decreased the relative risk to 1.40 (1.35-1.46). Adjustment for income but not the other risk factors decreased the risk to 1.19 (1.14-1.24) and adjustment for other risk factors did not alter this estimate. For cardiovascular death, relative risk on adjustment for income was decreased from 1.36 to 1.09; for cancer from 1.47 to 1.25; and for non-cardiovascular and non-cancer deaths from 1.71 to 1.26. For some specific causes of death, including prostate cancer, myeloma, and hypertensive heart disease, the higher death rates among black men did not seem to reflect differences in income. Rates of death for suicide and melanoma were lower among black than white men, as were those for coronary heart disease after adjustment for income. INTERPRETATION Socioeconomic position is the major contributor to differences in death rates between black and white men. Differentials in mortality from some specific causes do not simply reflect differences in income, however, and more detailed investigations are needed of how differences are influenced by environmental exposures, lifetime socioeconomic conditions, lifestyle, racism, and other sociocultural and biological factors.

Total and cardiovascular mortality in relation to cigarette smoking serum cholesterol concentration and diastolic blood pressure among black and white males followed up for five years

The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial screening program provided an opportunity (1) to study the association of diastolic blood pressure level, serum cholesterol concentration, and cigarettes per day with all-cause and cause-specific mortality after 5 years among 23,490 black males and (2) to compare these associations with those observed among 325,384 white males. The relationship of serum cholesterol concentration and reported cigarettes per day to all-cause, coronary heart disease (CHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality was similar for black and white males. Diastolic blood pressure was more positively associated with cerebrovascular disease death among black males than white males (p = 0.047) according to logistic regression analysis. The lower CHD mortality among black males compared to white males was most apparent among hypertensive males (diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 90 mm Hg). The relative risk (black vs white) of CHD death adjusted for age, serum cholesterol concentration, and cigarettes per day was 0.69 for hypertensive males compared to 1.15 for nonhypertensive males (p = 0.012 for difference in relative risk estimates). These findings suggest that the causes of CHD and cerebrovascular disease may be different for black and white males, particularly in regard to how these disease processes relate to blood pressure.