James D. Neaton

Diabetes, Other Risk Factors, and 12-Yr Cardiovascular Mortality for Men Screened in the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

OBJECTIVE To assess predictors of CVD mortality among men with and without diabetes and to assess the independent effect of diabetes on the risk of CVD death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Participants in this cohort study were screened from 1973 to 1975; vital status has been ascertained over an average of 12 yr of follow-up (range 11–13 yr). Participants were 347,978 men aged 35–57 yr, screened in 20 centers for MRFIT. The outcome measure was CVD mortality. RESULTS Among 5163 men who reported taking medication for diabetes, 1092 deaths (603 CVD deaths) occurred in an average of 12 yr of follow-up. Among 342,815 men not taking medication for diabetes, 20,867 deaths were identified, 8965 ascribed to CVD. Absolute risk of CVD death was much higher for diabetic than nondiabetic men of every age stratum, ethnic background, and risk factor level—overall three times higher, with adjustment for age, race, income, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and reported number of cigarettes/day (P < 0.0001). For men both with and without diabetes, serum cholesterol level, sBP, and cigarette smoking were significant predictors of CVD mortality. For diabetic men with higher values for each risk factor and their combinations, absolute risk of CVD death increased more steeply than for nondiabetic men, so that absolute excess risk for diabetic men was progressively greater than for nondiabetic men with higher risk factor levels. CONCLUSIONS These findings emphasize the importance of rigorous sustained intervention in people with diabetes to control blood pressure, lower serum cholesterol, and abolish cigarette smoking, and the importance of considering nutritional-hygienic approaches on a mass scale to prevent diabetes.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular disease. Four prospective American studies.

The British Regional Heart Study (BRHS) reported in 1986 that much of the inverse relation of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and incidence of coronary heart disease was eliminated by covariance adjustment. Using the proportional hazards model and adjusting for age, blood pressure, smoking, body mass index, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, we analyzed this relation separately in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), Lipid Research Clinics Prevalence Mortality Follow-up Study (LRCF) and Coronary Primary Prevention Trial (CPPT), and Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). In CPPT and MRFIT (both randomized trials in middle-age high-risk men), only the control groups were analyzed. A 1-mg/dl (0.026 mM) increment in HDLC was associated with a significant coronary heart disease risk decrement of 2% in men (FHS, CPPT, and MRFIT) and 3% in women (FHS). In LRCF, where only fatal outcomes were documented, a 1-mg/dl increment in HDLC was associated with significant 3.7% (men) and 4.7% (women) decrements in cardiovascular disease mortality rates. The 95% confidence intervals for these decrements in coronary heart and cardiovascular disease risk in the four studies overlapped considerably, and all contained the range 1.9-2.9%. HDLC levels were essentially unrelated to non-cardiovascular disease mortality. When differences in analytic methodology were eliminated, a consistent inverse relation of HDLC levels and coronary heart disease event rates was apparent in BRHS as well as in the four American studies.

Effect of losartan compared with captopril on mortality in patients with symptomatic heart failure: randomised trial—the Losartan Heart Failure Survival Study ELITE II

BACKGROUND The ELITE study showed an association between the angiotensin II antagonist losartan and an unexpected survival benefit in elderly heart-failure patients, compared with captopril, an angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitor. We did the ELITE II Losartan Heart Failure Survival Study to confirm whether losartan is superior to captopril in improving survival and is better tolerated. METHODS We undertook a double-blind, randomised, controlled trial of 3,152 patients aged 60 years or older with New York Heart Association class II-IV heart failure and ejection fraction of 40% or less. Patients, stratified for beta-blocker use, were randomly assigned losartan (n=1,578) titrated to 50 mg once daily or captopril (n=1,574) titrated to 50 mg three times daily. The primary and secondary endpoints were all-cause mortality, and sudden death or resuscitated arrest. We assessed safety and tolerability. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS Median follow-up was 555 days. There were no significant differences in all-cause mortality (11.7 vs 10.4% average annual mortality rate) or sudden death or resuscitated arrests (9.0 vs 7.3%) between the two treatment groups (hazard ratios 1.13 [95.7% CI 0.95-1.35], p=0.16 and 1.25 [95% CI 0.98-1.60], p=0.08). Significantly fewer patients in the losartan group (excluding those who died) discontinued study treatment because of adverse effects (9.7 vs 14.7%, p<0.001), including cough (0.3 vs 2.7%).

Blood pressure and end stage renal disease in men

BACKGROUND End-stage renal disease in the United States creates a large burden for both individuals and society as a whole. Efforts to prevent the condition require an understanding of modifiable risk factors. METHODS We assessed the development of end-stage renal disease through 1990 in 332,544 men, 35 to 57 years of age, who were screened between 1973 and 1975 for entry into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). We used data from the national registry for treated end-stage renal disease of the Health Care Financing Administration and from records on death from renal disease from the National Death Index and the Social Security Administration. RESULTS During an average of 16 years of follow-up, 814 subjects either died of end-stage renal disease or were treated for that condition (15.6 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation). A strong, graded relation between both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and end-stage renal disease was identified, independent of associations between the disease and age, race, income, use of medication for diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, serum cholesterol concentration, and cigarette smoking. As compared with men with an optimal level of blood pressure (systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg and diastolic pressure < 80 mm Hg), the relative risk of end-stage renal disease for those with stage 4 hypertension (systolic pressure > or = 210 mm Hg or diastolic pressure > or = 120 mm Hg) was 22.1 (P < 0.001). These relations were not due to end-stage renal disease that occurred soon after screening and, in the 12,866 screened men who entered the MRFIT study, were not changed by taking into account the base-line serum creatinine concentration and urinary protein excretion. The estimated risk of end-stage renal disease associated with elevations of systolic pressure was greater than that linked with elevations of diastolic pressure when both variables were considered together. CONCLUSIONS Elevations of blood pressure are a strong independent risk factor for end-stage renal disease; interventions to prevent the disease need to emphasize the prevention and control of both high-normal and high blood pressure.

Inflammatory and Coagulation Biomarkers and Mortality in Patients with HIV Infection

Background In the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]). We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis. Methods and Findings Stored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1+2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case–control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n = 170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–4.1; p = 0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3–20.8; p < 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2–37.0; p < 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p < 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p < 0.0001). In an expanded case–control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1–3.1; p = 0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8–2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8–2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively. Conclusions IL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00027352).

Blood pressure, systolic and diastolic, and cardiovascular risks : US population data

The National High Blood Pressure Education Program (NHBPEP) was launched 20 years ago based on data from population studies and clinical trials that showed high blood pressure (HBP) was a major unsolved--but soluble--mass public health problem. The present review summarizes recent data from US prospective population studies on blood pressure--systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP)--and cardiovascular risk. The outcome variables include blood pressure-related risks, primarily incidence and mortality from coronary heart disease, stroke, other and all cardiovascular diseases (CVD); also cardiac abnormalities (roentgenographic, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic); also, all-cause mortality and life expectancy. Data accrued during the past 20 years confirm that SBP and DBP have continuous, graded, strong, independent, etiologically significant relationships to the outcome variables. These relationships are documented for young, middle-aged, and older men and for middle-aged and older women of varying socioeconomic backgrounds and ethnicity. Among persons aged 35 years or more, most have SBP/DBP above optimal (< 120/< 80 mm Hg); hence, they are at increased CVD risk, ie, the blood pressure problem involves most of the population, not only the substantial minority with clinical HBP. For middle-aged and older persons, SBP relates even more strongly to risk than DBP; at every DBP level, higher SBP results in greater CVD risk and curtailment of life expectancy. A great potential exists for improved health and increased longevity through control of the blood pressure problem. Its realization requires a strategy combining population wide and high-risk approaches, the former to prevent rise of blood pressure with age and to achieve primary prevention of HBP by nutritional-hygienic means; the latter to enhance detection, treatment, and control of HBP. The newly expanded goals of the NHBPEP, aimed at implementing this broader strategy for the solution of the blood pressure problem, merit active support from physicians and all health professionals.

Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Early Asymptomatic HIV Infection

BACKGROUND Data from randomized trials are lacking on the benefits and risks of initiating antiretroviral therapy in patients with asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who have a CD4+ count of more than 350 cells per cubic millimeter. METHODS We randomly assigned HIV-positive adults who had a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter to start antiretroviral therapy immediately (immediate-initiation group) or to defer it until the CD4+ count decreased to 350 cells per cubic millimeter or until the development of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or another condition that dictated the use of antiretroviral therapy (deferred-initiation group). The primary composite end point was any serious AIDS-related event, serious non-AIDS-related event, or death from any cause. RESULTS A total of 4685 patients were followed for a mean of 3.0 years. At study entry, the median HIV viral load was 12,759 copies per milliliter, and the median CD4+ count was 651 cells per cubic millimeter. On May 15, 2015, on the basis of an interim analysis, the data and safety monitoring board determined that the study question had been answered and recommended that patients in the deferred-initiation group be offered antiretroviral therapy. The primary end point occurred in 42 patients in the immediate-initiation group (1.8%; 0.60 events per 100 person-years), as compared with 96 patients in the deferred-initiation group (4.1%; 1.38 events per 100 person-years), for a hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.62; P<0.001). Hazard ratios for serious AIDS-related and serious non-AIDS-related events were 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.50; P<0.001) and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.97; P=0.04), respectively. More than two thirds of the primary end points (68%) occurred in patients with a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter. The risks of a grade 4 event were similar in the two groups, as were the risks of unscheduled hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS The initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive adults with a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter provided net benefits over starting such therapy in patients after the CD4+ count had declined to 350 cells per cubic millimeter. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; START ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00867048.).

Serum Cholesterol Levels and Six-Year Mortality from Stroke in 350,977 Men Screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

We examined the relation between the serum total cholesterol level and the risk of death from stroke during six years of follow-up in 350,977 men, 35 to 57 years of age, who had no history of heart attack and were not currently being treated for diabetes mellitus. The diagnosis of stroke and the type of stroke were obtained from death certificates. Using proportional-hazards regression to control for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, and race or ethnic group, we found that the six-year risk of death from intracranial hemorrhage (International Classification of Diseases, ninth edition [ICD-9], categories 431 and 432) was three times higher in men with serum cholesterol levels under 4.14 mmol per liter (160 mg per deciliter) than in those with higher cholesterol levels (P = 0.05 by omnibus test across five cholesterol levels). On the other hand, a positive association was observed between the serum cholesterol level and death from nonhemorrhagic stroke (P = 0.007). The inverse association of the serum cholesterol level with the risk of death from intracranial hemorrhage was confined to men with diastolic blood pressure greater than or equal to 90 mm Hg, in whom death from intracranial hemorrhage is relatively common. We conclude that there is an inverse relation between the serum cholesterol level and the risk of death from hemorrhagic stroke in middle-aged American men, but that its public health impact is overwhelmed by the positive association of higher serum cholesterol levels with death from nonhemorrhagic stroke and total cardiovascular disease (ICD-9 categories 390 through 459).

The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials

Missing data in clinical trials can have a major effect on the validity of the inferences that can be drawn from the trial. This article reviews methods for preventing missing data and, failing that, dealing with data that are missing.

Effects of high-dose versus low-dose losartan on clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HEAAL study): a randomised, double-blind trial.

BACKGROUND Angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) are effective treatments for patients with heart failure, but the relation between dose and clinical outcomes has not been explored. We compared the effects of high-dose versus low-dose losartan on clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure. METHODS This double-blind trial was undertaken in 255 sites in 30 countries. 3846 patients with heart failure of New York Heart Association class II-IV, left-ventricular ejection fraction 40% or less, and intolerance to angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors were randomly assigned to losartan 150 mg (n=1927) or 50 mg daily (n=1919). Allocation was by block randomisation stratified by centre and presence or absence of beta-blocker therapy, and all patients and investigators were masked to assignment. The primary endpoint was death or admission for heart failure. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00090259. FINDINGS Six patients in each group were excluded because of poor data quality. With 4.7-year median follow-up in each group (IQR 3.7-5.5 for losartan 150 mg; 3.4-5.5 for losartan 50 mg), 828 (43%) patients in the 150 mg group versus 889 (46%) in the 50 mg group died or were admitted for heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99; p=0.027). For the two primary endpoint components, 635 patients in the 150 mg group versus 665 in the 50 mg group died (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.84-1.04; p=0.24), and 450 versus 503 patients were admitted for heart failure (0.87, 0.76-0.98; p=0.025). Renal impairment (n=454 vs 317), hypotension (203 vs 145), and hyperkalaemia (195 vs 131) were more common in the 150 mg group than in the 50 mg group, but these adverse events did not lead to significantly more treatment discontinuations in the 150 mg group. INTERPRETATION Losartan 150 mg daily reduced the rate of death or admission for heart failure in patients with heart failure, reduced left-ventricular ejection fraction, and intolerance to ACE inhibitors compared with losartan 50 mg daily. These findings show the value of up-titrating ARB doses to confer clinical benefit. FUNDING Merck (USA).