Delphine François

A Shapley decomposition of carbon emissions without residuals

Abstract Conventional decomposition techniques for historical evolutions of carbon emissions present path dependent factor weights of selected variables next to significant residuals. Especially for analyses over long periods with many variables, high residuals make it almost impossible to derive reliable conclusions. As an alternative, we present the Shapley decomposition technique for carbon emissions over the period 1960–1996. This technique makes it possible to present a correct and symmetric decomposition without residuals. The starting point of our analysis was an extended Kaya Identity with nine components. In a study of four countries, the Shapley decomposition showed that the carbon intensity of energy use and the decarbonization of economic growth—variables that are targeted with current climate policy measures—have more effect on total emissions than generally suggested in conventional decomposition exercises. Another interesting conclusion from our analysis was that the effect of population growth on emissions can be for some countries more important than the decarbonization efforts.

Risk assessment and water management

In order to implement water management in a sustainable way, the related decision-making processes have to take the ecological and socio-economic consequences into account. In The Netherlands, policy makers struggle with the question of how they can deal with flood risks. This paper presents some results of a research project sponsored by the Dutch Ministry of Water management in order to develop a risk assessment approach that assists decision-makers in dealing with flood risks. It shows that dealing with risk in decision-making related to water management manifests itself in different ways. One aspect is the incorporation of risk in the process of valuation of socio-economic effects. Another aspect is the incorporation of the valued socio-economic effects into the decision-making process. The paper shows that different attitudes towards risk determine to a large extent how the valued effects are assessed. This element has been widely discussed in the literature. The results are innovative in that they also show that risk attitudes and the understanding of the risk concept interfere with the outcome of the decision-making process in the field of water management. The paper provides an approach to how the concept of risk can be operationalized in different ways by decision-makers in dealing with flood risks. The approach is applied in two case studies. The results show that different institutional contexts impose different ways of dealing with risks which may significantly change over time (discount rates, risk attitudes, relevance of ecological effects, etc.).