Denisard Cneio de Oliveira Alves

Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil

Gasoline is one of the most important of the oil-derived products. Its importance is closely related to its participation in the value of imports of many countries and in a number of cases, it is one of the determinants of their balance of payment deficit, fiscal deficit and economic growth. As opposed to most nations, Brazil has had a gasoline substitute since 1985: alcohol. Many studies have tried to estimate the income and price elasticities of the demand for gasoline in several countries. This paper extends previous studies by estimating the cross-price elasticity between gasoline and alcohol. Our findings indicate that alcohol is an imperfect substitute for gasoline even in the long-run. As a consequence, the need for a new fuel substitution must be initiated long before petroleum reserves vanish.

Purchasing power parity in Brazil: a test for fractional cointegration

The purpose of this paper is to test the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) doctrine in Brazil. Historical data for the period 1855–1996 are considered. The period 1855–1990 is also analysed in order to compare the results with those obtained by Zini and Cati (1993) using the conventional cointegration analysis. This article uses fractional cointegration analysis, a flexible methodology which allows for more subtle forms of mean reversion. The tests performed are those of Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), and of Hurvich and Ray (1995). The critical values for both tests are generated by simulation because they are non-standard. The empirical results do not support the absolute PPP hypothesis but the relative PPP holds in the long run.

Technology, climate change,productivity and land use in Brazilian agriculture

The Ricardian model of climate change impacts is extended to include technological services from private and public agricultural research programs and climate change impacts on land use. The extended model is estimated for Brazil and the climate-land value, climate-land use, the technology-land value and the technology-land use linkages estimates are used to simulate both climate change and technology service impacts. Two sets of implications for policy emerge from the estimates of climate and technological change for Brazilian agriculture. The first set is indirect regarding the urgency and importance of policies designed to slow climate change. The second set is direct regarding policies to compensate for and ameliorate climate change.

Child Health and Infant Mortality in Brazil

Child health is a central issue on the public policy agenda of developing countries. Several policies geared to improving child health have been implemented over the years, with varying degrees of success. In Brazil, such policies have led to a significant decline in infant mortality rates over the last 30 years. Despite this improvement, however, mortality rates are still high by international standards and there is substantial variation across Brazilian municipalities, which suggests that differentiated policies should be devised. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of infant mortality at the municipal level, and to provide a more detailed analysis by considering the factors that affect child health at the individual level. To analyze the mortality rate, static and dynamic panel data models are estimated using four censuses covering the period 1970-2000. The demand for child health is addressed through a household decision model, estimated using anthropometric data from the 1996 Standard of Living Survey. The results indicate that sanitation, education and per capita income contributed to the decline in infant mortality in Brazil, the effects being stronger in the long run than in the short run. The fixed effects associated with municipality characteristics help explain the observed dispersion in child mortality rates. The results of the decision model are in line with the mortality model findings: education, sanitation and poverty are the most important explanatory factors of poor child health in Brazil.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Social Exclusion and the Two-Tiered Healthcare System of Brazil

In Brazil, there exists a two-tiered system of healthcare access. Those with sufficient means have access to a private system of healthcare that provides quality treatment on demand, while the remainder of the country relies on an overburdened system of public clinics and hospitals. Household survey data are used to determine which socio-demographic groups rely most on this public healthcare system. Current demographic trends suggest that the public healthcare infrastructure will become more and more heavily used in the coming decades. A stylized model of healthcare choice is estimated, and its parameters are used to conduct counterfactual simulations of the welfare implications of this increased congestion, and of policies to offset it, like private healthcare subsidies.

The Economic Determinants of the Brazilian Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

Health, Climate and Development in Brazil: A Cross-Section Analysis

This study uses a cross-section of Brazilian municipal data in an attempt to estimate the impact of climate changes on the pattern of disease morbidity and infant mortality. Brazil is a country with climate conditions that range from tropical rain forest to temperate savanna regions in the southern part of the country. When one travels from north to south and west to east, and from sea level to altitudes of 1,300 meters, it is possible to examine the results of a stochastic process and a range of global warming experiences. Therefore looking at the relationship between health and climate in Brazil could help to explain the impact of climate change on the health of the population. The objective of this study is to understand the relationship between health and climate after taking into account the interaction between man and nature represented by the level of economic development and the effects of policies to create a more (or less) adequate life environment.

Climate Impacts on Dengue Risk in Brazil: Current and Future Risks

Dengue fever is a climate-sensitive disease that affects thousands of Brazilians every year and generates substantial losses in private and public markets. This chapter aims to identify the roles of climate, both seasonal and historical, on the risk of dengue epidemics in Brazil while controlling for socioeconomical and political influences on the disease as well as the immune status and spatial contagion of populations. By testing and understanding the climate effects on dengue using a risk function for Brazilian data, this chapter intends to link two relevant agendas: the identification of ways to manage the climate related risks of today and improve the understanding of future risks in the country.

Especialização Setorial do Comércio Internacional Condiciona o Impacto da Abertura Comercial Sobre a Renda

Este artigo avalia se o grau de especializacao das exportacoes e importacoesem commodities cria possivel nao linearidade entre aberturacomercial e renda per capita. Em outras palavras se a composicao dapauta de exportacao e importacao pode alterar a eficiencia que a aberturacomercial possui em explicar o diferencial de renda entre nacoes.Para isso, aplica-se o modelo de painel com transicao suave para 110paises, seguindo o mesmo procedimento de Frankel e Romer (1999),evitando assim problemas de endogeneidade. Os resultados empiricosindicam que a especializacao das exportacoes em commodities pode fazercom que a abertura comercial seja menos eficaz em elevar a rendaquando comparada a paises que possuem pauta de exportacoes comvantagens comparativas em manufaturados. Por outro lado, esta situacaode menor eficacia associada a especializacao em commodities deixade ser valida, caso a pauta de importacoes esteja fortemente especializadano setor de manufaturados, que inclui bens intermediarios e decapital.