Dennis E. Longsine

Distributed velocity method of solving the convective-dispersion equation: 1. Introduction, mathematical theory, and numerical implementation

Abstract This is the first part of a two-part paper presenting a new method for treating convective-dispersive transport. The motivation for developing this technique arises from the demands of performing a risk assessment for a nuclear waste repository. These demands include computational efficiency over a relatively large range of Peclet numbers, the ability to handle chains of decaying radionuclides with rather extreme contrasts in both solution velocities and half lives, and the ability to treat leach- or solubility-limited sources. To the extent it has been tested to date, the distributed velocity method (DVM) appears to satisfy these demands. This part contains an overall introduction and presents the mathematical theory, numerical implementation, and example results.

Application of generic risk assessment software to radioactive waste disposal

Abstract Monte Carlo methods are used in a variety of applications such as risk assessment, probabilistic safety assessment and reliability analysis. While Monte Carlo methods are simple to use, their application can be laborious. A new microcomputer software package has been developed that substantially reduces the effort required to conduct Monte Carlo analyses. The Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Shell (SUNS) is a software shell in the sense that a wide variety of application models can be incorporated into it. SUNS offers several useful features including a menu-driven environment, a flexible input editor, both Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling, the ability to perform both repeated trials and parametric studies in a single run, and both statistical and graphical output. SUNS also performs all required file management functions.

Distributed velocity method of solving the convective-dispersion equation: 2. Error analysis and comparison with other methods

Abstract This is the second part of a two-part paper presenting a new method for treating convective-dispersive transport. The motivation for developing this technique arises from the demands of performing a risk assessment for a nuclear waste repository. These demands include computational efficiency over a relatively large range of Peclet numbers, the ability to handle chains of decaying radionuclides with rather extreme contrasts in both solution velocities and half lives and the ability to treat leach- or solubitity-limited sources. To the extent it has been tested to date, the distributed velocity method (DVM) appears to satisfy these demands. This part presents an error analysis employing statistical sampling and regression analysis techniques, and comparisons of DVM with other methods for convective-dispersive transport.

Quantitative adaptation analytics for assessing dynamic systems of systems: LDRD Final Report

Our society is increasingly reliant on systems and interoperating collections of systems, known as systems of systems (SoS). These SoS are often subject to changing missions (e.g., nation- building, arms-control treaties), threats (e.g., asymmetric warfare, terrorism), natural environments (e.g., climate, weather, natural disasters) and budgets. How well can SoS adapt to these types of dynamic conditions? This report details the results of a three year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project aimed at developing metrics and methodologies for quantifying the adaptability of systems and SoS. Work products include: derivation of a set of adaptability metrics, a method for combining the metrics into a system of systems adaptability index (SoSAI) used to compare adaptability of SoS designs, development of a prototype dynamic SoS (proto-dSoS) simulation environment which provides the ability to investigate the validity of the adaptability metric set, and two test cases that evaluate the usefulness of a subset of the adaptability metrics and SoSAI for distinguishing good from poor adaptability in a SoS. Intellectual property results include three patents pending: A Method For Quantifying Relative System Adaptability, Method for Evaluating System Performance, and A Method for Determining Systems Re-Tasking.