Dennis Novy

Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data

Barriers to international trade are known to be large. But have they become smaller over time? Building on the gravity framework by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003), I derive an analytical solution for time-varying multilateral resistance variables that can be related to observable trade data. This solution makes it possible to infer time-varying bilateral trade costs directly from the models gravity equation without imposing arbitrary trade cost functions. As an illustration, I show that U.S. trade costs with major trading partners declined on average by about 40 percent between 1970 and 2000, with Mexico and Canada experiencing the biggest reductions.

On the Measurement of Trade Costs: Direct vs. Indirect Approaches to Quantifying Standards and Technical Regulations

In this article, we review the literature on the measurement of trade costs in international trade with a special emphasis on nontariff measures and in particular on standards and technical regulations. We distinguish ‘direct’ from ‘indirect’ approaches. The direct approach collects observable data or proxy variables on trade cost components which are then typically used as regressors in a gravity equation of trade. Instead, the indirect approach infers the extent of trade impediments from trade flows. It compares actual trade flows to the trade flows predicted by a hypothetical frictionless benchmark scenario based on a micro-founded trade model, attributing the deviation of actual from predicted trade flows to trade frictions. We argue that economists and policymakers can gain useful insights from both approaches.

Trade costs and the open macroeconomy

Trade costs are known to be a major obstacle to international economic integration. Following the approach of New Open Economy Macroeconomics, this paper explores the effects of international trade costs in a micro-founded general equilibrium model that allows for different degrees of exchange rate pass-through. Trade costs are shown to create an endogenous home bias in consumption and the model performs well in matching empirical trade shares for OECD countries. In addition, trade costs reduce cross-country output and consumption correlations, and they magnify exchange rate volatility. Trade costs turn a monetary expansion into a beggar-thy-neighbor policy.

Estimating Border Effects: The Impact of Spatial Aggregation

Trade data are typically reported at the level of regions or countries and are therefore aggregates across space. In this paper, we investigate the sensitivity of standard gravity estimation to spatial aggregation. We build a model in which initially symmetric micro regions are combined to form aggregated macro regions. We then apply the model to the large literature on border effects in domestic and international trade. Our theory shows that larger countries are systematically associated with smaller border effects. The reason is that due to spatial frictions, aggregation across space increases the relative cost of trading within borders. The cost of trading across borders therefore appears relatively smaller. This mechanism leads to border effect heterogeneity and is independent of multilateral resistance effects in general equilibrium. Even if no border frictions exist at the micro level, gravity estimation on aggregate data can still produce large border effects. We test our theory on domestic and international trade flows at the level of U.S. states. Our results confirm the models predictions, with quantitatively large effects.