Dennis Todey

The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes

The role of extreme weather events in shaping people’s climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors’ climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.

Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

AbstractCorn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors provide a graphic depicting the climate-informed decision cycle, which they call the climate forecast–decision cycle calendar for corn.

Revisiting the statewide climate extremes for the United States: Evaluating existing extremes, archived data, and new observations

New all-time extreme climate records have been set in several states over the past few years. These records highlighted a need to review the existing statewide climate extremes tables maintained by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Also, since these tables were last up-dated, NCDC has greatly extended its digital data record into the past for many locations and has applied improved quality assurance processes to its archived data, revealing several potential new record values. To ensure the records maintained in the statewide climate extremes tables accurately reflect the most current and valid data available, the records were reevaluated. The all-time maximum and minimum temperature, all-time greatest 24-h precipitation and snowfall, and all-time greatest snow depth for each of the 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands were manually examined to determine their validity, accuracy, accessibility, and provenance. NCDCs data holdings were scoured for values that might exceed estab...

Evaluating Statewide Climate Extremes for the United States

AbstractThe NOAA National Climatic Data Center maintains tables for temperature and precipitation extremes in each of the U.S. states. Many of these tables were several years out of date, however, and therefore did not include a number of recent record-setting meteorological observations. Furthermore, there was no formal process for ensuring the currency of the tables or evaluating observations that might tie or break a statewide climate record. This paper describes the evaluation and revision of the statewide climate-extremes tables for all-time maximum and minimum temperature, greatest 24-h precipitation and snowfall, and greatest snow depth (the five basic climate elements observed on a daily basis by the NOAA Cooperative Weather Network). The process resulted in the revision of 40% of the values listed in those tables and underscored both the necessity of manual quality-assurance methods and the importance of continued climate-monitoring and data-rescue activities to ensure that potential record value...

Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA

While the Midwestern USA ranks among the world’s most important corn-soybean production regions, the area also produces a variety of high-value specialty crops. These crops are an important component of the region’s rural economy with an estimated value of

Provision of Climate Services for Agriculture: Public and Private Pathways to Farm Decision-making

1.8 billion in 2012. More profitable per-acre than many row crops, specialty crops also have higher production-related risks. They are generally more sensitive to climatic stressors and require more comprehensive management compared to traditional row crops. Temperature and precipitation fluctuations across the Midwest directly impact specialty crop production quantity and quality and indirectly influence the timing of crucial farm operations and the economic impacts of pests, weeds, and diseases. Increasingly variable weather and climate change pose a serious threat to specialty crop production in the Midwest. In this article, we assess how climate variability and observed climatic trends are impacting Midwestern specialty crop production using USDA Risk Management Agency data. In addition, we review current trends in grower perceptions of risks associated with a changing climate and assess sustainable adaptation strategies. Our results indicate that weather-induced losses vary by state with excessive moisture resulting in the highest total number of claims across all Midwestern states followed by freeze and drought events. Overall, specialty crop growers are aware of the increased production risk under a changing climate and have identified the need for crop-specific weather, production, and financial risk management tools and increased crop insurance coverage.

Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Patterns in the Northwestern Corn Belt and Impacts on Agricultural Water Management

CapsuleIn a U.S. Corn Belt study, we found that agricultural advisors are engaged and critical users of climate information, while gaps remain in providing salient climate information to farmers.

Monitoring the performance of vegetative treatment systems across subhumid and semiarid rainfall zones

Crop yields can be negatively impacted by excess water as well as insufficient water. The northwestern portion of the Corn Belt, including South Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa, is situated in a transition zone from moist subhumid to semiarid climates, and is, therefore, susceptible to both floods and drought. Precipitation has increased in the upper Midwest over the last 50 years, but less is known about changes in evapotranspiration (ET), which, along with precipitation, determines water excess or deficit. The objective of this research was to evaluate patterns of precipitation and ET in the four-state region over the last 49 years. The results confirm that precipitation has increased over much of the region in the last two decades, particularly outside the growing season. Fall and winter precipitation increases were more pronounced in the Dakotas, while precipitation increases in the spring were more common in Iowa. Areas of increased summer precipitation corresponded to areas of expanded row crop production. Reference ET has generally declined slightly over the region. However, more information is needed to fully evaluate the impact of changes in reference ET on actual ET. A better understanding of the impacts of these precipitation and ET patterns may help to evaluate potential mitigation and adaptation strategies for future crop production in the region under projected climate change.

Efficacy of Evapotranspiration-based Landscape Irrigation in Eastern South Dakota

Hydraulic loading of a vegetative treatment system (VTS) is an important factor of its performance. Water is the carrier of the nutrients from the feedlot onto the other components of the system. If a VTS can contain all applied water within a vegetative treatment area (VTA) then it will be able to control the nutrients as well. To determine the performance of VTS designs, four feedlots were studied across the state of South Dakota. Precipitation, VTA inflow, and VTA outflow were measured directly. Evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated using locally-measured weather parameters. Measurements showed that in six of the twelve site-years, VTS were able to prevent water from leaving the VTA. Two of the years that did have VTA releases were due to rainfalls in excess of a 25-year, 24-hour storm. This leaves four of the site years with releases under the 25-year, 24-hour storm limit and showed some of the possible design flaws that could be improved. Seasonal water releases from the VTA were all 5% or less of the seasonal inflow and precipitation that was applied to the VTA. To increase the performance of VTS, solids settling basins should have adequate size to contain runoff from a 25-year, 24-hour storm, a water restriction system to reduce the volume flow rate or delay the flow from the basin, and a water distribution system that spreads water evenly and slowly across the VTA.

Using a team survey to improve team communication for enhanced delivery of agro-climate decision support tools

Sioux Falls, SD is in the climate transition zone between the humid Midwest and semiarid Great Plains. Outdoor water use in Sioux Falls accounts for about half of the daily demand during the summer. To reduce the outdoor water demand, ET-based landscape irrigation control was compared to time-based control. For the 2009 irrigation season, 36 volunteer homeowners were divided into three treatments- replacement of 100% of the irrigation requirement (estimated ET minus rainfall), replacement of 70% of irrigation requirement, and traditional time-based control (the control treatment). Homes in the time-based and 70% treatments reduced their outdoor water application during 2009 compared to 2008. The reductions of the ratio of outdoor water application to irrigation requirement were 0.22 and 0.15 for the 80% and time-based treatments, respectively. Homes in the 100% treatment increased their water application slightly during 2009 (the change of the ratio of outdoor water application to irrigation requirement was 0.25). However, there were no statistical differences among the treatments. After one season of use, the ET-based controllers show promise for reducing outdoor (landscape irrigation) water application but the reductions were not significant.