Derek Headey

Rethinking the measurement of food security: from first principles to best practice

While food security measurement has been substantially expanded in recent decades, there persists significant dissatisfaction with existing measurement systems, especially in the wake of the ongoing food and financial crises. In this paper we first set out a list of criteria that an ideal food security measurement system should satisfy. In addition to standard issues of cross-sectional validity, our criteria include inter-temporal validity (the ability to gauge trends and shocks), and nutritional relevance. Using a mixture of literature review and fresh empirical analysis, we then benchmark four types of indicators (calories, poverty, dietary diversity and subjective indicators) against these criteria as a means of systematically identifying their relative strengths and weaknesses, and comparing overall performance. We conclude that, overall, dietary diversity indicators are the best performing class of indicators: they are powerful predictors of economic status and malnutrition (both stunting and wasting), sensitive to shocks, and relatively cheap to measure. Our concluding section therefore also outlines possible steps for scaling up the measurement of dietary diversity (and other indicators) through a mixture of increased funding, greater inter-agency coordination and technological (ICT) innovations that will reduce the cost of high frequency food security measurement.

Cows, Missing Milk Markets and Nutrition in Rural Ethiopia

In rural economies encumbered by significant market imperfections, farming decisions may partly be motivated by nutritional considerations, in addition to income and risk factors. These imperfections create the potential for farm assets to have direct dietary impacts on nutrition in addition to any indirect effects via income. We test this hypothesis for the dairy sector in rural Ethiopia, a context in which markets are very thin, own-consumption shares are very high, and milk is an important source of animal-based proteins and micronutrients for young children

Improving the Measurement of Food Security

Although food security measurement has been substantially expanded in recent decades, there persists significant dissatisfaction with existing measurement systems, especially in the wake of the global food and financial crisis. In this paper we first set out a list of criteria that an ideal food security measurement system should satisfy. We then benchmark existing indicators and measurement systems against those criteria as a means of systematically identifying their relative strengths and weaknesses. Our concluding section outlines possible steps for improving food security measurement through a mixture of extension, coordination, and innovation.

Agriculture and nutrition in India: mapping evidence to pathways.

In India, progress against undernutrition has been slow. Given its importance for income generation, improving diets, care practices, and maternal health, the agriculture sector is widely regarded as playing an important role in accelerating the reduction in undernutrition. This paper comprehensively maps existing evidence along agriculture–nutrition pathways in India and assesses both the quality and coverage of the existing literature. We present a conceptual framework delineating six key pathways between agriculture and nutrition. Three pathways pertain to the nutritional impacts of farm production, farm incomes, and food prices. The other three pertain to agriculture–gender linkages. After an extensive search, we found 78 research papers that provided evidence to populate these pathways. The literature suggests that Indian agriculture has a range of important influences on nutrition. Agriculture seems to influence diets even when controlling for income, and relative food prices could partly explain observed dietary changes in recent decades. The evidence on agriculture–gender linkages to nutrition is relatively weak. Sizeable knowledge gaps remain. The root causes of these gaps include an interdisciplinary disconnect between nutrition and economics/agriculture, a related problem of inadequate survey data, and limited policy‐driven experimentation. Closing these gaps is essential to strengthening the agriculture sectors contribution to reducing undernutrition.

Food Prices and Poverty Reduction in the Long Run

Standard microeconomic methods consistently suggest that, in the short run, higher food prices increase poverty in developing countries. In contrast, macroeconomic models that allow for an agricultural supply response and consequent wage adjustments suggest that the poor ultimately benefit from higher food prices. In this paper we use international data to systematically test the relationship between changes in domestic food prices and changes in poverty. We find robust evidence that in the long run (one to five years) higher food prices reduce poverty and inequality. The magnitudes of these effects vary across specifications and are not precisely estimated, but they are large enough to suggest that the recent increase in global food prices has significantly accelerated the rate of global poverty reduction.

The Short-Run Macroeconomic Impact of Foreign Aid to Small States: An Agnostic Time Series Analysis

Abstract This paper investigates the short-run macroeconomic impact of aid in small developing countries (SDCs) by using a vector auto regression (VAR) model to study the impact of aid on net import (absorption) and domestic demand (spending). We focus on average country effects within two country sub-groups, and find substantial differences between ‘aid-dependent’ SDCs and other SDCs that are more dependent on natural resources, tourism or financial services. In aid-dependent SDCs, aid absorption more or less equals spending, although only half of the aid flow is absorbed and spent. In the non-aid-dependent group, aid does not seem to be absorbed or spent in any systematic fashion.

Land Constraints and Agricultural Intensification in Ethiopia: A Village-Level Analysis of High-Potential Areas

Highland Ethiopia is one of the most densely populated regions of Africa and has long been associated with both Malthusian disasters and Boserupian agricultural intensification. This paper explores the race between these two countervailing forces, with the goal of inform two important policy questions. First, how do rural Ethiopians adapt to land constraints? And second, do land constraints significantly influence welfare outcomes in rural Ethiopia? To answer these questions we use a recent household survey of high-potential areas. We first show that farm sizes are generally very small in the Ethiopian highlands and declining over time, with young rural households facing particularly severe land constraints. We then ask whether smaller and declining farm sizes are inducing agricultural intensification, and if so, how. We find strong evidence in favor of the Boserupian hypothesis that land-constrained villages typically use significantly more purchased input costs per hectare and more family labor, and achieve higher maize and teff yields and higher gross income per hectare. However, although these higher inputs raise gross revenue, we find no substantial impact of greater land constraints on net farm income per hectare once family labor costs are accounted for. Moreover, farm sizes are strongly positively correlated with net farm income, suggesting that land constraints are an important cause of rural poverty. We conclude with some broad policy implications of our results.

Agriculture’s role in the Indian enigma: help or hindrance to the crisis of undernutrition?

In recent decades India has achieved one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world, yet its progress against both child and adult undernutrition has been sluggish at best. While this Indian variant of the so-called Asian enigma presents many puzzles, one of the puzzles pertains to agriculture’s role. Many researchers and policymakers have high expectations of agriculture’s potential to reduce undernutrition, despite a lack of substantive evidence. In this paper we assess this tenuous evidence base by exploring two key channels by which agricultural production conditions can influence nutritional outomes: a food consumption pathway and a maternal employment–time use pathway. We conclude with an appraisal of some possible entry points for pro-nutrition agricultural policies.

Understanding the Rapid Reduction of Undernutrition in Nepal, 2001-2011

South Asia has long been synonymous with unusually high rates of undernutrition. In the past decade, however, Nepal has arguably achieved the fastest recorded decline in child stunting in the world and has done so in the midst of civil war and post-conflict political instability. Given recent interest in reducing undernutrition–particularly the role of nutrition-sensitive policies–this paper aims to quantitatively understand this surprising success story by analyzing the 2001, 2006, and 2011 rounds of Nepal’s Demographic Health Surveys. To do so, we construct models of the intermediate determinants of child and maternal nutritional change and then decompose predicted changes in nutrition outcomes over time. We identify four broad drivers of change: asset accumulation, health and nutrition interventions, maternal educational gains, and improvements in sanitation. Many of these changes were clearly influenced by policy decisions, including increased public investments in health and education and community-led health and sanitation campaigns. Other factors, such as rapid growth in migration-based remittances, are more a reflection of household responses to changing political and economic circumstances.

Is resilience a useful concept in the context of food security and nutrition programmes? Some conceptual and practical considerations

With the developing world increasingly exposed to severe shocks and stresses, a growing number of international development agencies have now adopted resilience building as a critical long-term objective for their programmes. This paper explores the potential for this concept in the context of food security and nutrition but the reflection extends to development interventions more generally. Resilience is a rich concept, and has at its core the notion of complex dynamic processes that aptly describes the nature and dynamics of vulnerability and changes as they affect the developing world. The paper argues that the main value of resilience lies in its integrative nature, which facilitates greater collaboration between traditionally disparate groups and communities of practices. The paper also stresses some of the key conceptual and practical challenges that we face when trying to operationalise and measure resilience.