Kalle Hirvonen

Seasonality and household diets in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE To revisit seasonality by assessing how household diets vary across agricultural seasons in rural and urban Ethiopia. The role of seasonality on the sources and intake of energy (per capita) and household dietary diversity score (HDDS) was analysed. DESIGN The use of nationally representative household-level data collected each month over one year to study the seasonal changes in the sources and intake of energy and HDDS. SETTING Eleven regions of Ethiopia, including rural and urban settings. SUBJECTS Total of 27 835 households were interviewed between July 2010 and July 2011 in all eleven regions of the country. On average each month saw 2300 household interviews, yielding nationally representative data for each calendar month. RESULTS For rural households, the mean daily per capita energy intake was 10 288 kJ (2459 kcal) in February (post-harvest period) and lower in the lean season: 9703 kJ (2319 kcal) in June (P<0·05) and 9552 kJ (2283 kcal) in July (P<0·001). HDDS for rural households was highest in February (6·73) and lowest in June (5·98; P<0·001) but high again in July (6·57). Urban energy intake was also lower in the lean season but HDDS varied less by season. Considerable seasonal variation was also found in energy sources in rural areas, less so in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS Household diets in Ethiopia remain subjected to significant seasonal stress. HDDS and food security measured using energy intake do not always agree. Preferably, HDDS and energy intake data should be used together to assess food security.

Is Exposure to Poultry Harmful to Child Nutrition? An Observational Analysis for Rural Ethiopia

Although strategic thinking on water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) has prioritized reducing exposure to human feces in order to limit diarrheal infections, recent research suggests that elevated exposure to livestock–particularly poultry and poultry feces–may be an important risk factor for diarrhea, environmental enteric disorder (EED) and respiratory infections, all of which may seriously retard linear growth in young children. Yet a very different literature on nutrition-sensitive agriculture suggests that livestock ownership is highly beneficial for child growth outcomes through its importance for increasing consumption of nutrient-rich animal sourced foods, such as eggs. Together, these two literatures suggest that the net nutritional benefit of poultry ownership is particularly ambiguous and potentially mediated by whether or not children are highly exposed to poultry. We test this novel hypothesis using a large agricultural survey of rural Ethiopian households that includes measures of child height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ), ownership of poultry and other types of livestock, and an indicator of whether livestock are kept within the main household dwelling overnight. We used least squares regression analysis to estimate unadjusted and adjusted models that control for a wide range of potentially confounding factors. We find that while poultry ownership is positively associated with child HAZ [β = 0.291, s.e. = 0.094], the practice of corralling poultry in the household dwelling overnight is negatively associated with HAZ [β = -0.250, s.e. = 0.118]. Moreover, we find no negative associations between HAZ and corralling other livestock species indoors. These results suggest that while poultry ownership can be beneficial to child growth, overly close exposure to poultry poses a concurrent risk factor for undernutrition, most likely because of increased risk of infection.

Risk sharing and internal migration

Over the past two decades, more than half the population in rural Tanzania migrated within the country, profoundly changing the nature of traditional institutions such as informal risk sharing. Mass internal migration has created geographically disperse networks, on which the authors collected detailed panel data. By quantifying how shocks and consumption co-vary across linked households, they show how migrants unilaterally insure their extended family members at home. This finding contradicts risk-sharing models based on reciprocity, but is consistent with assistance driven by social norms. Migrants sacrifice 3 to 7 percent of their very substantial consumption growth to provide this insurance, which seems too trivial to have any stifling effect on their growth through migration.

Temperature Changes, Household Consumption, and Internal Migration: Evidence from Tanzania

Large rural-urban wage gaps observed in many developing countries are suggestive of barriers to migration that keep potential migrants in rural areas. Using long panel data spanning nearly two decades, I study the extent to which migration rates are constrained by liquidity constraints in rural Tanzania. The analysis begins by quantifying the impact of weather variation on household welfare. The results show how household consumption co-moves with temperature, rendering households vulnerable to local weather events. These temperature-induced income shocks are then found to inhibit long-term migration among men, thus preventing them from tapping into the opportunities brought about by geographical mobility.

Does Market Access Mitigate the Impact of Seasonality on Child Growth? Panel Data Evidence from Northern Ethiopia

Abstract Seasonality in agricultural production continues to shape intra-annual food availability in low-income countries. Using high-frequency panel data from northern Ethiopia, this study attempts to quantify seasonal fluctuations in children’s weights. Consistent with earlier studies, we document considerable seasonality in children’s age and height adjusted weights. While children located closer to local food markets are better nourished compared to their counterparts residing farther away, their weights are also subject to considerable seasonality. Further analysis shows that children located closer to food markets consume more diverse diets than those located farther away but the content of the diet varies across seasons. This leads us to conclude that households located near these food markets are not able to insulate their children from seasonal weight fluctuations. We discuss some policy options with potential to address this threat to child wellbeing.

Animal sourced foods and child stunting

&NA; Stunting affects 160 million pre‐school children globally with adverse life‐long consequences. While work within nutritional science suggests that stunting in early childhood is associated with low intakes of animal‐sourced foods (ASFs), this topic has received little attention from economists. We attempt to redress this omission through an analysis of 130,432 children aged 6‐23 months from 49 countries. We document distinctive patterns of ASF consumption among children in different regions. We find evidence of strong associations between stunting and a generic ASF consumption indicator, as well as dairy, meat/fish, and egg consumption indicators, and evidence that consuming multiple ASFs is more advantageous than any single ASF. We explore why ASF consumption is low but also so variable across countries. Non‐tradable ASFs (fresh milk, eggs) are a very expensive source of calories in low‐income countries and caloric prices of these foods are strongly associated with childrens consumption patterns. Other demand‐side factors are also important, but the strong influence of prices implies an important role for agricultural policies—in production, marketing and trade—to improve the accessibility and affordability of ASFs in poorer countries.

Cash crops and food security: Evidence from Ethiopian smallholder coffee producers

Abstract One of the central questions in food policy debates has been the role of cash cropping for achieving food security in low-income countries. We revisit this question in the context of smallholder coffee production in Ethiopia. Using data collected by the authors on about 1600 coffee farmers in the country, we find that coffee income is associated with improved food security, even after controlling for total income and other factors. Further analysis suggests that one possible pathway is linked to being better able to smooth consumption across agricultural seasons.

Linking taxation and social protection Evidence on redistribution and poverty reduction in Ethiopia

The reduction of poverty, and more recently inequality, are pressing concerns in many low- and middle-income countries, not in the least as a result of the Sustainable Development Goals committing countries to significant improvements by 2030. Redistribution is important for reaching these goals, and is shaped by countries’ tax and welfare systems. Despite redistribution resulting from the simultaneous effect of revenue collection and public expenditures, policies and analyses of their distributional effects have largely been undertaken from narrow and singular perspectives. In this paper, we aim to jointly assess the distributional effect of taxes and transfers (through social protection) using Ethiopia as a case study. We find that currently Ethiopia’s flagship social protection programme is more effective than income taxation in achieving poverty reduction, while neither policy achieves a sizeable reduction in overall inequality. Overall, our findings provide support for the common belief that social spending is more suitable than taxation to achieve redistribution. We also assessed whether Ethiopia would have the capacity to achieve the desired level of redistribution by applying higher marginal rates on relatively high incomes. Our results suggest that Ethiopia does not currently have the capacity to close the poverty gap, or to fully fund its main safety net programme using domestic income sources alone.

Can governments promote homestead gardening at scale? Evidence from Ethiopia

Low intake of fruits and vegetables is a major cause of micronutrient deficiencies in the developing world. Since the 1980s, various non-governmental organizations have promoted homestead gardening (HG) programs, first in Asia, but now increasingly in Africa. Longstanding concerns with HG programs are: (1) they lack scalability, particularly for governments; (2) they only work in areas with/without good access to markets; and (3) they are only suitable for more water-abundant ecologies. We assess these concerns by analyzing a large and novel survey on the adoption of a nationwide HG program implemented by the Ethiopian government. We find that better market access encourages HG adoption; so too does greater public promotion of HGs, but only in more water-abundant ecologies.