Derek Phan

Electrical risk score beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction: prediction of sudden cardiac death in the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Aims There is an urgent need to extend sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk stratification beyond the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). We evaluated whether a cumulative electrocardiogram (ECG) risk score would improve identification of individuals at high risk of SCD. Methods and results In the community-based Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (catchment population ∼1 million), 522 SCD cases with archived 12-lead ECG available (65.3 ± 14.5 years, 66% male) were compared with 736 geographical controls to assess the incremental value of multiple ECG parameters in SCD prediction. Heart rate, LV hypertrophy, QRS transition zone, QRS-T angle, QTc, and Tpeak-to-Tend interval remained significant in the final model, which was externally validated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Sixteen percent of cases and 3% of controls had ≥4 abnormal ECG markers. After adjusting for clinical factors and LVEF, increasing ECG risk score was associated with progressively greater odds of SCD. Overall, subjects with ≥4 ECG abnormalities had an odds ratio (OR) of 21.2 for SCD [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4-47.7; P < 0.001]. In the LVEF >35% subgroup, the OR was 26.1 (95% CI 9.9-68.5; P < 0.001). The ECG risk score increased the C-statistic from 0.625 to 0.753 (P < 0.001), with net reclassification improvement of 0.319 (P < 0.001). In the ARIC cohort validation, risk of SCD associated with ≥4 ECG abnormalities remained significant after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio 4.84; 95% CI 2.34-9.99; P < 0.001; C-statistic improvement 0.759-0.774; P = 0.019). Conclusion This novel cumulative ECG risk score was independently associated with SCD and was particularly effective for LVEF >35% where risk stratification is currently unavailable. These findings warrant further evaluation in prospective clinical investigations.

Left-ventricular geometry and risk of sudden cardiac arrest in patients with preserved or moderately reduced left-ventricular ejection fraction

Aims The majority of sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur in patients with left-ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (LVEF) >35%, yet there are no methods for effective risk stratification in this sub-group. Since abnormalities of LV geometry can be identified even with preserved LVEF, we investigated the potential impact of LV geometry as a novel risk marker for this patient population. Methods and results In the ongoing Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study, SCA cases with archived echocardiographic data available were prospectively identified during 2002-15, and compared with geographical controls. Analysis was restricted to subjects with LVEF >35%. Based on established measures of LV mass and relative wall thickness (ratio of wall thickness to cavity diameter), four different LV geometric patterns were identified: normal geometry, concentric remodelling, concentric hypertrophy, and eccentric hypertrophy. Sudden cardiac arrest cases (n = 307) and controls (n = 280) did not differ in age, sex, or LVEF, but increased LV mass was more common in cases. Twenty-nine percent of SCA cases presented with normal LV geometry, 35% had concentric remodelling, 25% concentric hypertrophy, and 11% eccentric hypertrophy. In multivariate model, concentric remodelling (OR 1.76; 95%CI 1.18-2.63; P = 0.005), concentric hypertrophy (OR 3.20; 95%CI 1.90-5.39; P < 0.001), and eccentric hypertrophy (OR 2.47; 95%CI 1.30-4.66; P = 0.006) were associated with increased risk of SCA. Conclusion Concentric and eccentric LV hypertrophy, but also concentric remodelling without hypertrophy, are associated with increased risk of SCA. These novel findings suggest the potential utility of evaluating LV geometry as a potential risk stratification tool in patients with preserved or moderately reduced LVEF.

Cardiac structural and functional profile of patients with delayed QRS transition zone and sudden cardiac death

AIMS Delayed QRS transition zone in the precordial leads of the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been recently associated with increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. We correlated echocardiographic findings with ECG and clinical characteristics to investigate how alterations in cardiac structure and function contribute to this risk marker. METHODS AND RESULTS From the ongoing population-based Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (catchment population ∼1 million), SCD cases with prior ECG available (n = 627) were compared with controls (n = 801). Subjects with delayed transition at V5 or later were identified, and clinical and echocardiographic patterns associated with delayed transition were analysed. Delayed transition was present in 31% of the SCD cases and 17% of the controls. These subjects were older and more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors and history of myocardial infarction. Delayed transition was associated with increased left ventricular (LV) mass (122.7 ± 40.2 vs. 102.9 ± 33.7 g/m(2); P < 0.001), larger LV diameter (53.3 ± 10.4 vs. 49.2 ± 8.0 mm; P < 0.001), and lower LV ejection fraction (LVEF) (46.4 ± 15.7 vs. 55.6 ± 12.5%; P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, delayed transition was independently associated with myocardial infarction, reduced LVEF, and LV hypertrophy. The association between delayed transition and SCD was independent of the LVEF (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.04-2.38; P = 0.032). CONCLUSION The underpinnings of delayed QRS transition zone extend beyond previous myocardial infarction and reduced LVEF. Since the association with sudden death is independent of these factors, this novel marker of myocardial electrical remodelling should be explored as a potential risk predictor of SCD.Aims Delayed QRS transition zone in the precordial leads of the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been recently associated with increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. We correlated echocardiographic findings with ECG and clinical characteristics to investigate how alterations in cardiac structure and function contribute to this risk marker. Methods and Results From the ongoing population-based Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (catchment population ∼1 million), SCD cases with prior ECG available (n = 627) were compared with controls (n = 801). Subjects with delayed transition at V5 or later were identified, and clinical and echocardiographic patterns associated with delayed transition were analysed. Delayed transition was present in 31% of the SCD cases and 17% of the controls. These subjects were older and more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors and history of myocardial infarction. Delayed transition was associated with increased left ventricular (LV) mass (122.7 ± 40.2 vs. 102.9 ± 33.7 g/m2; P < 0.001), larger LV diameter (53.3 ± 10.4 vs. 49.2 ± 8.0 mm; P < 0.001), and lower LV ejection fraction (LVEF) (46.4 ± 15.7 vs. 55.6 ± 12.5%; P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, delayed transition was independently associated with myocardial infarction, reduced LVEF, and LV hypertrophy. The association between delayed transition and SCD was independent of the LVEF (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.04-2.38; P = 0.032). Conclusion The underpinnings of delayed QRS transition zone extend beyond previous myocardial infarction and reduced LVEF. Since the association with sudden death is independent of these factors, this novel marker of myocardial electrical remodelling should be explored as a potential risk predictor of SCD.

Syncope and risk of sudden cardiac arrest in coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND Syncope has been associated with increased risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in specific patient populations, such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, heart failure, and long QT syndrome, but data are lacking on the risk of SCA associated with syncope among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), the most common cause of SCA. We investigated this association among CAD patients in the community. METHODS All cases of SCA due to CAD were prospectively identified in Portland, Oregon (population approximately 1 million) as part of the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study 2002-2015, and compared to geographical controls. Detailed clinical information including history of syncope and cardiac investigations was obtained from medical records. RESULTS 2119 SCA cases (68.4±13.8years, 66.9% male) and 746 controls (66.7±11.7years, 67.0% male) were included in the analysis. 143 (6.8%) of cases had documented syncope prior to the SCA. SCA cases with syncope were >5years older and had more comorbidities than other SCA cases. After adjusting for clinical factors and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), syncope was associated with increased risk of SCA (OR 2.8; 95%CI 1.68-4.85). When analysis was restricted to subjects with LVEF ≥50%, the risk of SCA associated with syncope remained significantly elevated (adjusted OR 3.1; 95%CI 1.68-5.79). CONCLUSIONS Syncope was associated with increased risk of SCA in CAD patients even with preserved LV function. These findings suggest a role for this clinical marker among patients with CAD and normal LVEF, a large sub-group without any current means of SCA risk stratification.

Left Ventricular Geometry and Risk of Sudden Cardiac Arrest in Patients With Severely Reduced Ejection Fraction

Background Recent reports indicate that specific left ventricular (LV) geometric patterns predict recurrent ventricular arrhythmias in patients with implantable cardioverter‐defibrillators and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, this relationship has not been evaluated among patients at risk of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) in the general population. Methods and Results Adult SCA cases from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study were compared with geographic controls with no prior history of SCA. Archived echocardiograms performed closest and prior to the SCA event were reviewed. LV geometry was defined as normal (normal LV mass index [LVMI] and relative wall thickness [RWT]), concentric remodeling (normal LVMI and increased RWT), concentric hypertrophy (increased LVMI and RWT), or eccentric hypertrophy (increased LVMI and normal RWT). Analysis was restricted to those with LVEF ≤40%. A total of 246 subjects were included in the analysis. SCA cases (n=172, 68.6±13.3 years, 78% male), compared to controls (n=74, 66.8±12.1 years, 73% male), had lower LVEF (29.4±7.9% vs 30.8±6.3%, P=0.021). Fewer cases presented with normal LV geometry (30.2% vs 43.2%, P=0.048) and more with eccentric hypertrophy (40.7% vs 25.7%, P=0.025). In a multivariate model, eccentric hypertrophy was independently predictive of SCA (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.08–4.29, P=0.03). Conclusions Eccentric LV hypertrophy was independently associated with increased risk of SCA in subjects with EF ≤40%. These findings, now consistent between device‐implanted and non‐implanted populations, indicate the potential of improving SCA risk stratification from the same noninvasive echocardiogram at no additional cost.

Corticosteroid wean after heart transplantation-Is there a risk for antibody formation?

Corticosteroid withdrawal after heart transplantation is limited to select immune‐privileged patients but it is not known whether this predisposes patients to a higher risk for sensitization.

LONGER BRAIN DEATH DURATION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED ACUTE CELLULAR REJECTION AFTER HEART TRANSPLANTATION

Brain death (BD) causes a cytokine storm that may adversely affect the donor heart through an inflammatory response. It has yet to be determined whether duration of BD has a major impact on heart transplant (Htx) recipients. We sought to assess the impact of BD duration to post Htx outcomes.