Derek S. Hutcheson

“Keeping Pandora's (ballot) box half-shut”: a comparative inquiry into the institutional limits of external voting in EU Member States

The article compares the institutional constraints that limit the potential electoral impact of external voting in national legislative elections in the 28 Member States of the European Union (EU). It shows that the discrepancy between policy aims and outcomes can be mainly attributed to a variety of institutional constraints restricting the scope of the policy (through residence and professional qualifications); limiting eligible voters’ access to the ballot (through cumbersome registration procedures and voting methods); and reducing the electoral weight attributed to their votes (through distinct modes of representation). It argues that the discrepancy is at least partly the result of a combination of electoral and normative concerns about the influence that external voters could and should have in elections. Institutional restrictions on the franchise of external citizens may be interpreted as a way to keep the “Pandoras box” of unexpected electoral consequences half-shut, by extending the suffrage to a traditionally excluded electorate while at the same time moderating the implications.

Disengaged or disenchanted? the vote ‘against all’ in post-communist Russia

Russian voters have two ways of recording a protest within the constraints of the electoral system. The first is abstention; the second, chosen in recent years by increasing numbers, is to vote ‘against all’ candidates and parties. Although its efflects can sometimes be unpredictable, the ‘against all’ option has the potential to invalidate elections. There are discernible geographical and time-series patterns to the share of ‘against all’ cast from election to election. Analysis of electoral, demographic and survey data allows us to examine the bases of abstention and protest voting. On the basis of these data, it appears that non-voters are disengaged from the political process, whereas ‘against all’ voters are disenchanted but remain engaged.

Party cartels beyond Western Europe Evidence from Russia

The article applies and develops Katz and Mair’s ‘cartel party’ thesis to the Russian case. Challenging the accepted characterization of the Russian party system as ‘hegemonic’, the article contends that this underplays the systemic importance of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and its collusion with pro-Kremlin parties in the fields of electoral and party reform. By applying the concepts of cartelization to the Russian case, it appears that the intersection of state and party goes beyond simply the ‘top-down’ establishment of political parties towards a party system in which there is inter-party collusion around a strong state-based regime.

Shortcut to Legitimacy: Popularity in Putin’s Russia

Abstract Survey evidence suggests that Vladimir Putin’s legitimacy rests on three pillars: domestic order; economic prosperity; and the demonstration of great power status internationally. This is problematic inasmuch as it is based on a high degree of personal popularity which inhibits and contravenes the legal–rational legitimacy of state institutions. This requires continued delivery in all three areas in order to maintain the legitimacy of the regime. This framework allows us better to interpret the 2014 Ukraine crisis as an attempt to shore up support in one ‘pillar’ as performance-based legitimacy recedes.

How to Win Elections and Influence People

Abstract In recent years electoral politics worldwide have become more firmly based on professional advice and labor. In developing democracies, the influx of advice and consultants from the West initially resulted in an “Americanization” of electoral techniques. As electoral systems have developed, the political consulting market in each country has evolved down a route more suited to the specifics of its electoral conditions. The present paper examines the development of political consulting in post-communist Russia. It places the electoral market in comparative context, looking at the scope, structure and activities of political consulting firms, and examining some of the controversies arising from the professionalization of politics in the country.

Protest and disengagement in the Russian federal elections of 2003–04

Abstract The 2003–04 electoral cycle witnessed a substantial victory for President Putin and parliamentary forces loyal to him. However, less attention was devoted to a substantial fall in turnout and an increase in voting ‘against all’ parties and candidates. The present paper sets out the legal and historical background to these questions before examining the results of the 2003–04 State Duma and presidential elections in more detail and attempting to explain the reasons for this increasing disengagement and disenchantment with the political process. It finds that the increase in the protest vote and falling turnouts which were observed from the mid‐1990s continued, although the impact of these was limited owing to the dominance of pro‐presidential forces. Analysis of the bases of these phenomena suggests that voters have become increasingly disenchanted with the political process. Whilst a substantial number have ceased participating altogether there is an ever‐growing number who are prepared to register their protest at the increasing gap between the rulers and the ruled.

THE SEISMOLOGY OF PSEPHOLOGY: ‘EARTHQUAKE ELECTIONS’ FROM THE FOLKETING TO THE DÁIL

Amid increasingly de-aligned electoral behaviour since the 1970s, several electoral contests in developed democracies have stood out as ‘earthquake elections’. However, since the original manifestations of these in Scandinavia, there has been little systematic analysis as to what exactly constitutes one. The present article re-examines the 1973 Danish ‘Jordskredsvalget’ and measures subsequent ‘earthquakes’ against it. It finds that not all dramatic elections necessarily qualify as ‘earthquakes’ and in particular, that the most recent apparent occurrence, in Ireland in 2011, actually disguised considerable stability within the party system.

Contextualizing the 2016 State Duma Election

An overview is given of the 2016 Russian State Duma election, and its significance for the current Russian regime. As the first in a series of five articles in this edition of Russian Politics, it sets the 2016 State Duma election into context. It begins by discussing the role of the Duma in Russian politics, and reviews political developments between the protests that followed the 2011 parliamentary election, and the successful conclusion of the 2016 one. It then examines how institutional and political changes came together in the 2016 campaign. The resultant supermajority for the pro-Kremlin United Russia party is analyzed, before the remaining articles in this issue – which examine the issues of turnout, voting behavior, electoral manipulation and the future of the regime – are introduced.

The 2011 Election to the Danish Folketing

The September 2011 Danish parliamentary election led to a change of government as the centre-right coalition of the previous ten years was replaced by a centre-left one headed by the leader of the Social Democrats, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. The victory was very narrow, however, and Thorning-Schmidts own party endured its worst result for more than a century. The new government is moreover reliant on parties with very different policy agendas to pass its legislative programme.

Party finance in Russia

The article examines patterns of party finance in Russia. In comparative terms, Russia now has one of the most regulated party finance regimes amongst established and emerging democracies. Over time, the amount of money circulating in the party sphere – or at least officially acknowledged – has increased. The reliance of the leading parties on state finance is now substantial, indicating that the pro-Kremlin groupings and the nominally opposition Communist Party of the Russian Federation have systematically built up a parliamentary ‘cartel’ to reinforce their position within the Russian party system.