Dian J. Gaffen

On the utility of radiosonde humidity archives for climate studies

This paper considers the use of upper-air data from radiosondes in long-term climate studies. The accuracy and precision of radiosonde humidity measurements, including temperature and pressure measurements used in calculating them, and their effects on the precision of reported and derived variables are estimated. Focusing on the U.S. radiosonde system, we outline the history of changes in instruments and reporting practices and attempt to assess the implications of such changes for studies of temporal variations in lower-tropospheric water vapor. Changes in biases in the data are highlighted, as these can lead to misinterpretation of climate change. We conclude that the upper-air data record for the United States is not homogeneous, especially before 1973. Because of problems with the humidity data in cold, dry conditions, the water vapor climatology in the upper troposphere, nominally above the 500-mb level, is not well known.

Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause derived from radiosonde data and NCEP reanalyses

Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause is studied using long time series of radiosonde data, together with global tropopause analyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses over 1957–1997. Comparisons for the period 1979–1997 show the NCEP tropopause temperature is too warm by ∼3–5 K and too high in pressure by ∼2–6 mbar. However, these biases are approximately constant in time, so that seasonal and interannual variability is reasonably well captured by the NCEP data. Systematic differences in NCEP tropopause statistics are observed between the presatellite (1957–1978) and postsatellite (1979–1997) periods, precluding the use of the reanalyses for the study of multidecadal variability. Interannual anomalies in tropical average radiosonde and NCEP data show variations of order ±1–2 K over the period 1979–1997, but there can be differences between these two estimates which are of similar magnitude. These differences impact estimates of decadal trends: During 1979–1997, negative trends in tropopause temperature of order −0.5 K/decade are observed in radiosonde data but are not found in NCEP reanalyses. The space-time patterns of several coherent signals are identified in both sets of tropopause statistics. The volcanic eruption of El Chichon (1982) warmed the tropical tropopause by ∼1–2 K and lowered its altitude by ∼200 m for approximately 1–2 years. Smaller tropopause variations are observed following Mount Pinatubo (1991), particularly in radiosonde data. The signatures of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are strong in tropopause statistics. QBO variations are primarily zonal mean in character, while ENSO events exhibit dipole patterns over Indonesia and the central Pacific Ocean, with small signals for zonal averages.

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979–1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979–1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979–1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.

Sensitivity of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Temperature Trends to Radiosonde Data Quality

Abstract Radiosonde data have been used, and will likely continue to be used, for the detection of temporal trends in tropospheric and lower-stratospheric temperature. However, the data are primarily operational observations, and it is not clear that they are of sufficient quality for precise monitoring of climate change. This paper explores the sensitivity of upper-air temperature trend estimates to several data quality issues. Many radiosonde stations do not have even moderately complete records of monthly mean data for the period 1959–95. In a network of 180 stations (the combined Global Climate Observing System Baseline Upper-Air Network and the network developed by J. K. Angell), only 74 stations meet the data availability requirement of at least 85% of nonmissing months of data for tropospheric levels (850–100 hPa). Extending into the lower stratosphere (up to 30 hPa), only 22 stations have data records meeting this requirement for the same period, and the 30-hPa monthly data are generally based on ...

Space and Time Scales of Global Tropospheric Moisture

Abstract Radiosonde data from a global 118-station network are used to determine the spatial and temporal scales of variability of tropospheric water vapor. Various sources of possible error and bias in the data are analyzed. Changes in instrumentation at U.S. stations are shown to have a considerable influence on the record; information on comparable changes in other countries is not readily available. Mean monthly data are shown to be acceptable at tropical nations but not at high-latitude stations, where the nonlinear dependence of saturation vapor pressure on temperature, coupled with large temperature ranges, leads to biases of up to 10% in mean monthly specific humidity. A series of three empirical orthogonal function analyses (for the tropics, North America, and the globe) of specific humidity at the surface, 850-mb, 700-mb, and 500-mb levels is presented. All three show evidence of a shift in the specific humidity field in the winter of 1976/77, with generally lower values from the beginning of th...

Late-Twentieth-Century Climatology and Trends of Surface Humidity and Temperature in China

Abstract Climatological surface temperature and humidity variables for China are presented based on 6-hourly data from 196 stations for the period of 1961–90. Seasonal and annual means for daytime, nighttime, and the full day are shown. The seasonal cycle of moisture is primarily controlled by the east Asia monsoon system, with dominant factors of temperature change in northern and western China and of moisture advection associated with monsoon circulations in the southeast. Trends during 1951–94 are estimated for each station and for four regions of the country, with attention paid to the effects of changes in instrumentation, observing time, and station locations. The data show evidence of increases in both temperature and atmospheric moisture content. Temperature and specific humidity trends are larger at nighttime than daytime and larger in winter than summer. Moisture increases are observed over most of China. The increases are several percent per decade for specific humidity, and several tenths of a...

Relationships between tropospheric water vapor and surface temperature as observed by radiosondes

Using radiosonde data from 50 stations for 1973–1990, we quantify relationships between surface air temperature (Ts) and precipitable water vapor (W) for different time scales. Monthly mean observations are fairly well described by an equation of the form ln W = A + B Ts, but the coefficients A and B depend on the Ts range considered. At high Ts, the relationship is poor. This relationship and relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and W based on satellite microwave observations over oceans are in remarkably good agreement over restricted SST ranges. Monthly and annual anomalies of W and Ts are well correlated only outside the tropics, but on longer time scales, there is some evidence of positive trends in both W and Ts at most of the stations studied. Thus the relationship between W and Ts depends on the time scales and geographic region considered.

Annual cycles of tropospheric water vapor

To understand better the annual cycles of atmospheric humidity, radiosonde data were used to create climatologies of temperature, dew point, relative humidity, and precipitable water in the lower troposphere for 56 locations around the world for the period 1973–1990. On the basis of the annual ranges of relative humidity at the surface and at the 850, 700, and 500 mbar levels and the ratio of the annual maximum to minimum surface to 500-mbar precipitable water, we have defined five humidity regimes: (1) middle- and high-latitude continental, (2) middle- and high-latitude oceanic, (3) midlatitude monsoon, (4) tropical oceanic, and (5) tropical monsoon. For each regime we describe the annual cycles of temperature and humidity variables and discuss phase relationships among them. Relative humidity ranges are small in the first two regimes, where precipitable water and temperature vary in phase. Relative humidity ranges in the other three regimes are moderate to large, and in the tropics the annual march of horizontal moisture advection and vertical convection, not temperature, controls seasonal humidity variations. These results suggest that the assumption of constant relative humidity made in some climate models is not always justified and that precipitable water is not a strong function of temperature in the tropics.

Column Water Vapor Content in Clear and Cloudy Skies

Abstract With radiosonde data from 15 Northern Hemisphere stations, surface-to-400-mb column water vapor is computed from daytime soundings for 1988–1990. On the basis of simultaneous surface visual cloud observations, the data are categorized according to sky-cover amount. Climatological column water vapor content in clear skies is shown to be significantly lower than in cloudy skies. Column water vapor content in tropical regions varies only slightly with cloud cover, but at midlatitude stations, particularly in winter, clear-sky values are much lower. The variation in column water content with cloud cover is not simply due to variations in atmospheric temperature, since the increase in water vapor with cloud cover is generally associated with a decrease in daytime temperature. Biases in radiosonde instruments associated with cloudiness do not explain the station-to-station variations in the magnitude of the increase of column water vapor with cloud cover. Statistics are presented that can be used as gu...

Effects of Conversion Algorithms on Reported Upper-Air Dewpoint Depressions

Abstract Different nations use different algorithms or other techniques to convert temperatures and relative humidities from radiosonde observations to dewpoint depressions. Thus, it is possible for identical measured values to result in different reported dewpoints. On the basis of a sample of conversion methods, we calculate the possible differences among the national practices. In general, the discrepancies are not large and would often be lost in the usual round-off procedures associated with transmission over the Global Telecommunications System, but in cold, dry conditions dewpoints different by more than 1°C could be reported for identical conditions. Some of the methods have been changed over time, so there is also the possibility of inhomogeneities in climate records.