Dinsha Mistree

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the €O¬oads€U generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its €O£apacity€U to withstand these €O¬oads€U¬ on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

The House of Security: Stakeholder Perceptions of Security Assessment and Importance

In this paper we introduce a methodology for analyzing differences regarding security perceptions within and between stakeholders, and the elements which affect these perceptions. We have designed the €Uˆouse of Security€ݬ a security assessment model that provides the basic framework for considering eight different constructs of security: Vulnerability, Accessibility, Confidentiality, Technology Resources for Security, Financial Resources for Security, Business Strategy for Security, Security Policy and Procedures, and Security Culture. We designed and performed a survey of about 1500 professionals in various industries, levels, and functions resulting in a gap analysis to uncover differences (1) between the different constructs and aspects of security, (2) between different enterprise stakeholder roles, and (3) between different organizations. This paper briefly describes the development of the security constructs and some of the preliminary findings.