Nazli Choucri

The hidden economy: A new view of remittances in the arab world

Abstract The hidden economy is set in place by the large-scale migration of labor in search of employment outside national boundaries. Remitted earnings, channeled largely through informal mechanisms, have generated a network of financial and economic relations that define the boundaries and characteristic features of the hidden economy. The hidden economy shapes many of the critical parameters of economic activity of the Middle East, such as exchange rates and the availability of foreign exchange. It is difficult to observe (or measure) working of this important phenomenon, since, to a large extent, it operates through unofficial, informal, or illegal transactions. Special emphasis is given to the cases of Sudan and Egypt to illustrate the operations of the hidden economy and to identify its agents and characteristic features.

Dynamics Of International Conflict: Some Policy Implications of Population, Resources, and Technology

International conflict has been accounted for in many different ways—in terms of aggressive “instincts,” territoriality, population growth, the search for basic resources or seaports, the protection of trade routes, psychopathological deviations, plunder and profit, a drive for imperialist control, and so forth. Some theorists have considered grievances, competition, anxieties, tension, threat, and provocation to be of special importance. Others have laid heavy emphasis upon national power or capability, military preparedness, strategic considerations, and the competition for dominance. 1 No doubt most if not all of these variables are relevant, but this recognition does not help much in the development of a theory of war, its dynamics, and contributing causal networks. In the long run all factors need to be pulled together in some systematic way. A serious difficulty emerges from the fact that the various “causes” that contribute to war tend to be highly interactive, that is, they affect each other in various ways and often in many different directions. The problem is to find out, if possible, which variables are contributing most to international violence and in what proportion. The purpose of this paper is to take an early step in this direction by reporting on some empirical research currently under way and by presenting some tentative findings which suggest partial explanations and some implications and difficulties for national policies.

Global e-Readiness—for What? Readiness for e-Banking

With the rapid diffusion of the Internet worldwide, there has been considerable interest in the e-potentials of developing countries giving rise to a first generation of e-readiness studies. Moreover, e-readiness means different things to different people, in different contexts, and for different purposes. Despite strong merits, this first generation of e-readiness studies assumed a fixed, one-size-fits-all set of requirements, regardless of the characteristics of individual countries, the investment context, or the demands of specific applications. This feature obscures critical information for investors or policy analysts seeking to reduce uncertainties and make educated decisions. But there is very little known about e-readiness for e-banking. In particular, based on lessons learned to date and their implications for emerging realities of the 21st century, the authors designed and executed a research project with theoretical as well as practical dimensions to answer the question of “e-Readiness for What?,” focusing specifically on e-banking, based on the very assumption that one size can seldom, if ever, fit all. The authors also propose and develop a conceptual framework for the “next generation” e-readiness—focusing on different e-business applications in different economic contexts with potentially different pathways—as well as a data model—to explore e-readiness for e-banking in 10 countries.

Renewable Energy in Abu Dhabi: Opportunities and Challenges

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an oil-rich country located in the eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula. Abu Dhabi is the largest emirate in the country, and Abu Dhabi is the capital of the UAE. The country has the one of the highest per capita rates of CO2 emission and water consumption in the world. Most of the water consumed is produced in desalination plants, which are energy intensive. The leadership of the country has made the bold decision to establish a renewable energy (RE) sector to diversify its energy sources and the economy as a whole. The Masdar Initiative was established to promote this objective. The government has established its first RE policy; the goal is to have 7% of power come from RE sources and technologies by 2020. This paper highlights the different RE projects of the Masdar Initiative, with particular emphasis on the power sector, and examines the new concentrated solar power (CSP) plants developed as part of the initiative.

Threats to sustainability: simulating conflict within and between nations

A locking apparatus is disclosed suitable for mounting on a bicycle comprising a flexible securing member such as a cable or a chain secured to a reel at a point between the ends of the cable or chain thereby allowing the ends to be payed out or reeled in. This arrangement allows the reel and the housing over the reel if such housing is to be used to be attached to a bicycle and both can be constructed of very light weight materials. The cable or chain can be of sufficient length that it may be completely run through the back wheel, the frame and the front wheel of a bicycle and then the ends of the cable or chain secured to one another through lock receiving members at the ends thereof. When the cable is employed in the foregoing manner and additionally placed around a pole or other object securely imbedded in the ground, the cable is locked to itself and the bicycle so that even though the housing may be pried off of the bicycle, the cable will remain locked to it and the pole or post and neither the bicycle or the cable and housing can be stolen.

Political Economy of the Global Environment

The politicization of global environmental change has already injected scientific evidence (and uncertainties) in the policy domain- national and international. The nature of political discourse has and will continue to be affected by assessments of these changes. The purpose of this concluding discussion is threefold: (a) to identify conceptual elements for analysis of global environmental change which could provide a realistic framework for future research; (b) to identify salient features of the polit ical economy of global environmental change; and (c) to identify key research and policy challenges in the study of international relations. Clearly the institutional and policy-related aspects are recognized by almost everyone as being crucial for developing an overall understanding of global change. Since human activities have contributed to fundamental interventions in natural processes, understanding the social underpinnings of these interventions (institutional, political, economic) is an essential part of an inquiry into the political economy of global change.

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better Understand State Stability

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the €O¬oads€U generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its €O£apacity€U to withstand these €O¬oads€U¬ on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.

The new migration in the Middle East: a problem for whom?

This paper describes the recent trends in migration throughout the Middle East, identifying the major implications of this movement, and isolating the critical policy issues for both Egypt and other Arab states. The author argues that international migration in the Middle East harbors political and economic effects that may be potentially explosive. It is demonstrated that current migration related policies may be counter-productive for all parties concerned. This paper highlights the emergence of new issues in Middle East politics without attempting a detailed analysis of their many facets.

The World Population Conference and the Population Tribune August 1974.

This is a report of the World Population Conference and related activities in Bucharest, Romania, in August 1974 which created an awareness of the importance of population change for development in different parts of the world. Major points made at the conference were: 1) there is need for a more equitable distribution of wealth; 2) there is an interrelationship between population growth and other socioeconomic variables; 3) every state should have the solitary right to decide on the demographic policies most suitable for it; 4) family planning is not an engine of change to speed the development process; 5) there is a need for attention to the role of women in development. The World Population Plan recommended more research into population problems. 3 additional conferences were planned for the early part of 1975. The conference was the site for 5 different points of view on population ranging from the desirability of population growth to fill empty lands to the importance of limitation of population growth and the importance of development.

Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects

The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) controlling future outcomes, (3) understanding the overall dynamics of a system to appreciate present conditions, and (4) planning for the immediate future. The author then specifies alternative forecasting methodologies, from least to most systematic: normative, exploratory‐projective, model‐based (both statistical and functional), simulation‐based, and artificial intelligence. A forcast may further be anchored in four types of initial conditions: structure, probability, preference, and trends and projections (the most prevalent type today). A forecast may also have various purposes, each with an attendant time frame: retrospective, long range, or short range. Having made a forecast, it may be validated in many ways, including interrogation processes, statistical methods, and comparisons w...