Djane Fonseca Da Silva

Uso de ferramentas estatísticas para acompanhamento climático e prevenção de riscos na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Mundaú (Brasil)

EnglishPrecipitation variations in the hydrographic basin of the Mundau river were studied using the rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and the wavelet analysis. The results showed that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation related interannual variability and the decadal variability influenced the local rainfall variability. portuguesAs variacoes da precipitacao na bacia hidrografica do rio Mundau foram estudadas utilizando o Indice de anomalia de chuva (IAC) e a Analise de Ondeleta. Os resultados mostraram que a variabilidade interanual ligada ao ciclo de El Nino Oscilacao Sul e a variabilidade decadal influenciaram na variabilidade pluviometrica local.

INFLUÊNCIA DA VARIABILIDADE CLIMÁTICA GLOBAL E DE SUAS ESCALAS TEMPORAIS SOBRE A PRECIPITAÇÃO NO ALTO MUNDAÚ (PE)

As variacoes da precipitacao em uma regiao da bacia hidrografica do rio Mundau foram estudadas utilizando o Indice de anomalia de chuva (IAC) e a Analise de Ondeleta. Esta tecnica envolve transformacao de uma serie unidimensional em um espaco de tempo e frequencia, permitindo determinar as escalas de variabilidade dominantes e suas variacoes temporais. Os resultados mostraram que a variabilidade da precipitacao e definida por multi-escalas temporais localizadas em certos intervalos de tempo. No entanto, a variabilidade interanual ligada ao ciclo de El Nino Oscilacao Sul e a variabilidade decadal influenciaram na variabilidade pluviometrica do Alto Mundau.

Analysis of climate influence on agricultural production in semiarid cearense

edaphoclimatic factors, what beyond of the importance of the producer’s technological level, also influence directly in agriculture. The objective this work was to evaluate the influence of climate variability on the local rainfall and consequently on agricultural production, especially of maize, beans and cassava, account for the greatest performances in the income of farmers of Aiuaba (CE). To reach these objectives were used statistical methods as Correlation and Analysis of Wavelet. The results of the Wavelet analysis pointed cycles of 5-6 years (ENSO) for the occurrence of rainy years, a consequence of several different temporal scales, while in dry years were observed cycles between 4 and 6 years (ENSO), showing that the ENSO scale influence on all series of rainfall. In the absence of association with other timescales occurred dry years. Correlations between rainfall and all production variables were high and with statistical significance, showing only small correlations between rainfall and plant and harvested area for cassava, only variables not statistically significant. This study showed that the information generated for the city are useful for various industries like agriculture and socioeconomic. It was also noted that climate variability has significant effects on the production of local family farmers.

Perspectivas em Variáveis Meteorológicas para o Estado do Ceará (Perspectives on Meteorology Variable for the State of Ceará)

Existe uma grande preocupacao de pesquisadores em analisar as variabilidades climaticas que estao acontecendo no planeta, enfatizando-se a deteccao de tendencias em series de observacoes meteorologicas. O intuito deste trabalho foi analisar, utilizando o teste de Mann-Kendall, as tendencias nas series pluviometricas e nas series de temperatura maxima das oito macrorregioes cearenses: Regiao Metropolitana de Fortaleza (RMF), Regiao do Litoral Oeste, Regiao de Sobral/Ibiapaba, Regiao do Macico de Baturite, Regiao do Sertao dos Inhamuns, Regiao do Sertao Central, Regiao do Litoral Leste/Jaguaribe e Regiao do Cariri/Centro Sul. Os resultados mostraram que ha uma tendencia de diminuicao de chuvas no estado do Ceara, tendo atencao especial para Noroeste e Centro-sul do Estado. A temperatura maxima apresentou tendencia de aumento em todas as regioes do estado. A B S T R A C T There is a great concern of researchers in analyzing climate variability that are happening on the planet, emphasizing the detection of trends in meteorological observations series. The purpose of this study was to analyze, using the Mann-Kendall test, trends in rainfall series and the maximum temperature series in the eight geographical regions: Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza (RMF), the West Coast Region, Region Sobral/Ibiapaba, the Baturite Region, Region Sertao of Inhamuns, Sertao Central Region, East Coast Region/Jaguaribe and Cariri /South Center Region. It was concluded that there is a trend of declining rainfall in the state of Ceara, with special attention to the Northwest and South Central region of State. The maximum temperature tended to increase in all regions of the state. Keywords: Mann-Kendall test, Rainfall, Maximum temperature, Climate trends.

Trends and spatial distribution of the climate variables of the Ceará state

There is a great concern among researchers in analyzing climate variability that is happening on the planet, with emphasis on the detection of trends in series of 1 Agronomo; Mestrando no Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Meteorologia da Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, UFCG, Centro de Tecnologia e Recursos Naturais, Unidade Academica Ciencias Atmosfericas; Endereco: Rua Aprigio Veloso de 748/749 ao fim Universitario CEP: 58429-140, Campina Grande, Paraiba, Brasil; E-mail: jrfl_jua@hotmail.com 2 Dra.; Meteorologista; Professora Universidade Federal de Alagoas UFAL, Instituto de Ciencias Atmosfericas ICAT, Campus A. C. Simoes, Bairro Cidade Universitaria, CEP: 57037,000, Maceio, Alagoas, Brasil; E-mail: djanefonseca.icat@gmail.com (*) Autora para correspondencia. Ambiencia Guarapuava (PR) v.12 n.1 p. 127 145 Jan./Abr. 2016 ISSN 1808 0251 Recebido para publicacao em 09/02/2015 e aceito em 01/09/2015 DOI:10.5935/ambiencia.2016.01.08 Ambiencia Revista do Setor de Ciencias Agrarias e Ambientais V.12 N.1 Jan./Abr. 2016 128 meteorological observations, either on an annual scale, decadal or throughout a series of data. The purpose of this study was to analyze, using the Mann-Kendall test, trends and/or variations in the rainfall series (Total Annual, Annual Average, Average in the seasons of the year Fall, Winter, Spring and Summer) and in the insolation series (Annual Average, Average in the seasons of the year Fall, Winter, Spring and Summer) of the eight macroregions in Ceara: Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza (RMF), the West Coast Region, Sobral/Ibiapaba Region, the Macico de Baturite Region, Sertao dos Inhamuns Region, the Sertao Central Region, East Coast Region/Jaguaribe and Cariri Region/South Center. The results showed that there is a trend of declining rainfall in the state of Ceara, with special attention to the Northwest and South Central State. Insolation showed decrease in Baturite region and in Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza and increase in other geographical regions of the state. By having this information at hand, the public and private sectors can make decisions on the implementation of actions to mitigate the effects of the climate variability in the state.

Timescales and observed trends in the highest temperatures in the state of Ceará

Pretendeu-se por meio das analises de ondeletas, identificar quais as possiveiscausas para a variabilidade na temperatura maxima do Ceara e com auxilio do teste de Mann-Kendall, verificou-se se ha tendencias de aumento ou diminuicao dessa variavel. Foram usados dados de temperatura maxima do INMET para o periodo de 1973-2010. Verificou-se que as regioes do estado do Ceara sofrem influencia das variacoes das escalas sazonais, interanuais e decadais sob suas temperaturas. As escalas sazonal, ligada ao ENOS, ligada ao Dipolo do Atlântico, ao ciclo de manchas solares e a Oscilacao Decadal do Pacifico influenciam as temperaturas no estado do Ceara. Dessa forma, com a informacao de quais fenomenos climaticos ou sistemas meteorologicos influenciam diretamente cada uma das macrorregioes do Ceara, com o acompanhamento climatico dos mesmos, e possivel conhecer mais profundamente as variacoes termicas de cada regiao, e, ao mesmo tempo, usar a informacao para previsao climatica, de risco climatico e seus produtos. Houve um aumento na temperatura maxima em todas as regioes estudadas. Abstract It is intended through wavelet analysis, identify possible causes for variability inmaximum temperature with the aid of Ceara and the Mann - Kendall test, check if be trends of increase or decrease of this variable. Data INMET maximumtemperature for the period 1973-2010 was used. It was found that the regions of the state of Ceara suffer influences of variations of the scale seasonal, interannual and decadal in their temperatures. The seasonal scales, linked to ENSO, linked to the Atlantic dipole, the sunspot cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation influence temperatures in the state of Ceara. Thus with the information which weatherphenomena or weather systems directly influence each of the geographical regions of Ceara, with the climate monitoring them , you can learn more deeply thermal variations of each region , and at the same time use the information to forecastclimate , climate risk and its products . There was an increase in the maximum temperature in all studied regions.