Dmitry Divine

Historical variability of sea ice edge position in the Nordic Seas

[1] Historical ice observations in the Nordic Seas from April through August are used to construct time series of ice edge position anomalies spanning the period 1750-2002. While analysis showed that interannual variability remained almost constant throughout this period, evidence was found of oscillations in ice cover with periods of about 60 to 80 years and 20 to 30 years, superimposed on a continuous negative trend. The lower frequency oscillations are more prominent in the Greenland Sea, while higher frequency oscillations are dominant in the Barents. The analysis suggests that the recent well-documented retreat of ice cover can partly be attributed to a manifestation of the positive phase of the 60-80 year variability, associated with the warming of the subpolar North Atlantic and the Arctic. The continuous retreat of ice edge position observed since the second half of the 19th century may be a recovery after significant cooling in the study area that occurred as early as the second half of the 18th century.

A signal of persistent Atlantic multidecadal variability in Arctic sea ice

Satellite data suggest an Arctic sea ice-climate system in rapid transformation, yet its long-term natural modes of variability are poorly known. Here we integrate and synthesize a set of multicentury historical records of Atlantic Arctic sea ice, supplemented with high-resolution paleoproxy records, each reflecting primarily winter/spring sea ice conditions. We establish a signal of pervasive and persistent multidecadal (~60–90 year) fluctuations that is most pronounced in the Greenland Sea and weakens further away. Covariability between sea ice and Atlantic multidecadal variability as represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is evident during the instrumental record, including an abrupt change at the onset of the early twentieth century warming. Similar covariability through previous centuries is evident from comparison of the longest historical sea ice records and paleoproxy reconstructions of sea ice and the AMO. This observational evidence supports recent modeling studies that have suggested that Arctic sea ice is intrinsically linked to Atlantic multidecadal variability. This may have implications for understanding the recent negative trend in Arctic winter sea ice extent, although because the losses have been greater in summer, other processes and feedbacks are also important.

Multicentennial Variability of the Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Subpolar North Atlantic over the Last 2.8 kyr

A 2800-year-long August Sea Surface Temperature (aSST) record based on fossil diatom assemblages is generated from a marine sediment core from the northern subpolar North Atlantic. The record is compared with the aSST record from the Norwegian Sea to explore the variability of the aSST gradient between these areas during the late Holocene. The aSST records demonstrate the opposite climate tendencies towards a persistent warming in the core site in the subpolar North Atlantic and cooling in the Norwegian Sea. At the multicentennial scale of aSST variability of 600–900 years, the records are nearly in anti-phase with warmer (colder) periods in the subpolar North Atlantic corresponding to the colder (warmer) periods in the Norwegian Sea. At the shorter time scale of 200–450 years, the records display a phase-locked behaviour with a tendency for the positive aSST anomalies in the Norwegian Sea to lead by ~30 years the negative aSST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic. This apparent aSST seesaw might have an effect on two major anomalies of the European climate of the past Millennium: Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). During the MWP warming of the sea surface in the Norwegian Sea occurred in parallel with cooling in the northern subpolar North Atlantic whereas the opposite pattern emerged during the LIA. The results suggest that the observed aSST seesaw between the subpolar North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea could be a surface expression of the variability of the eastern and western branches of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) with a possible amplification through atmospheric feedback.

Snow contribution to first-year and second-year Arctic sea ice mass balance north of Svalbard

The salinity and water oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of twenty-nine first-year (FYI) and second-year (SYI) Arctic sea ice cores (total length 32.0 m) from the drifting ice pack north of Svalbard were examined to quantify the contribution of snow to sea ice mass. Five cores (total length 6.4 m) were analyzed for their structural composition showing variable contribution of 10-30% by granular ice. In these cores snow had been entrained in 6 to 28% of the total ice thickness. We found evidence of snow contribution in about three quarter of the sea ice cores, when surface granular layers had very low δ18O values. Snow contributed 7.5-9.7% to sea ice mass balance on average (including also cores with no snow) using δ18O mass balance calculations. In SYI cores snow fraction by mass (12.7-16.3%) was much higher than in FYI cores (3.3-4.4%), while the bulk salinity of FYI (4.9) was distinctively higher than for SYI (2.7). We surmise that oxygen isotopes and salinity profiles can give information on the age of the ice and allows to distinguish between FYI and SYI (or older) ice in the area north of Svalbard. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Atmospheric-driven state transfer of shore-fast ice in the northeastern Kara Sea

Received 9 September 2004; revised 19 April 2005; accepted 2 June 2005; published 21 September 2005. [1] Frequencies of observed occurrences of shore-fast ice in the northeastern Kara Sea for each month during 1953–1990 reveal a multimodality of shore-fast ice extent in late winter and spring. The fast ice extent exhibits mainly three different configurations (modes) associated with the regional topography of coasts and islands. These modes show fast ice areas equal to approximately 98 ± 6, 122 ± 6, and 136 ± 8 1000 km 2 . Analysis of the time series of fast ice extent shows that favorable conditions for expansion of fast ice seaward in winter and spring are met if the atmospheric circulation over the northeastern Kara Sea is controlled by the Arctic high, resulting in offshore winds and a significant (up to 6� C) decrease of the monthly mean surface air temperature. In contrast, the penetration of the Icelandic low into the Kara Sea, accompanied by Arctic cyclones coming from the west, is responsible for the partial breakup and decrease of fast ice extent in winter or spring.

CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS AS RECORDED IN SVALBARD ICE CORE ω18O RECORDS BETWEEN AD 1200 AND 1997

ABSTRACT. We apply two different time series analytical tools to ω18O records from two Svalbard ice cores. One ice core is from Lomonosovfonna at 1250 ma.s.l. and the other from Austfonna at 750 m a.s.l. These cores are estimated to cover at least the past 800 years and have been dated using a combination of known reference horizons and glacial modelling. Wavelet analysis reveals low frequency oscillations on the 60–120–year scale on the lower elevation site Austfonna while the higher altitude site on Lomonosovfonna does not reveal such variability throughout the record. The second method, Significant Zero Crossing of Derivates (SiZer) does not resolve the low‐frequency periodicity seen in the wavelet analysis. The low‐frequency variability resolved by the wavelet analysis is similar to what has been found in various climate records including instrumental temperatures and tree‐rings, and has been proposed as the most important oscillation for the observed trends in Arctic air temperatures.

Climate oscillations as recorded in Svalbard ice core delta O-18 records between AD 1200 and 1997

ABSTRACT. We apply two different time series analytical tools to ω18O records from two Svalbard ice cores. One ice core is from Lomonosovfonna at 1250 ma.s.l. and the other from Austfonna at 750 m a.s.l. These cores are estimated to cover at least the past 800 years and have been dated using a combination of known reference horizons and glacial modelling. Wavelet analysis reveals low frequency oscillations on the 60–120–year scale on the lower elevation site Austfonna while the higher altitude site on Lomonosovfonna does not reveal such variability throughout the record. The second method, Significant Zero Crossing of Derivates (SiZer) does not resolve the low‐frequency periodicity seen in the wavelet analysis. The low‐frequency variability resolved by the wavelet analysis is similar to what has been found in various climate records including instrumental temperatures and tree‐rings, and has been proposed as the most important oscillation for the observed trends in Arctic air temperatures.

Variability and climate sensitivity of fast ice extent in the north-eastern Kara Sea

This work investigates the temporal and spatial variation of shore-fast ice extent in the north-eastern part of the Kara Sea during 1953–1990 and its sensitivity to interannual variability of the regional climate. The area of fast ice in spring months shows a bimodal distribution. This indicates the existence of two different regimes of fast ice formation driven by the system of prevailing winds. The westward wind transport during the cold season gives larger fast ice extent while the eastward wind transport suppresses the expansion of fast ice. There is a significant correlation (ca. –0.55) between the average winter temperature and the area of fast ice. Linear trends for time records of shore-fast ice area in spring show a decrease during 1953–1990. This decrease is most pronounced in April: the mean fast ice area in April is 12 % lower in 1988–1990 compared to 1953–55. A comparison of fast ice regimes for two particular years— 1979 and 1985—revealed a significant influence of cyclone activity on fast ice development over the course of the cold season. It is shown that partial break-ups of fast ice in spring 1985 are associated with the passage of cyclones across the area of fast ice.

Exceptional ocean surface conditions on the SE Greenland shelf during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Diatom inferred 2900 year long records of August sea surface temperature (aSST) and April sea ice concentration (aSIC) are generated from a marine sediment core from the SE Greenland shelf with a special focus on the interval ca. 870–1910 Common Era (C.E.) reconstructed in subdecadal temporal resolution. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1000 and 1200 C.E. represents the warmest ocean surface conditions of the SE Greenland shelf over the late Holocene (880 B.C.E.(before the Common Era) to 1910 C.E.). It was characterized by abrupt, decadal to multidecadal changes, such as an abrupt warming of ~2.4°C in 55 years around 1000 C.E. Temperature changes of these magnitudes are rare on the North Atlantic proxy data. Compared to regional air temperature reconstructions, our results indicate a lag of about 50 years in ocean surface warming either due to increased freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet or intensified sea ice export from the Arctic as a response to atmospheric warming at the beginning of the MCA. A cool phase, from 1200–1890 C.E., associated with the Little Ice Age, ends with the rapid warming of aSST and diminished aSIC in the early twentieth century. The results show that the periods of warm aSST and aSIC minima are coupled with solar minima suggesting that solar forcing possibly amplified by atmospheric forcing have been behind the variability of surface conditions on the SE Greenland over the last millennium. The results indicate that the SE Greenland shelf is a climatologically sensitive area where extremely rapid changes are possible and highlights the importance of the area under the present warming conditions.