Donal Bredin

An empirical analysis of short-run and long-run Irish export functions : does exchange rate volatility matter?

We analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between merchandise export volume and its determinants, foreign income, relative prices and exchange rate volatility, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction. The model was estimated for Irish exports and sectoral exports SITC 0-4 and SITC 5-8 to the EU using quarterly data for the period 1978-1998. The sectoral classification corresponds to the exports of mainly indigenous Irish firms and multinationals, respectively. We find that the exchange rate volatility has no effect on the volume of trade in the short-run but a significant positive effect in the long run. This is true in the aggregate and for our sectoral classifications. We can tentatively conclude that the decline in intra-EU exchange rate volatility associated with the single currency will lead to a long-run fall in Irish exports to the EU.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Case of Ireland

We use the techniques of cointegration and error correction models to estimate long-run and short-run export demand functions for Ireland using quarterly data for the 1979-93 period. We consider three determinants of exports: foreign income, relative prices, and exchange rate volatility. Our results indicate that exports depend significantly on foreign income and relative prices, in particular in the long run. Exchange rate uncertainty proxied by exchange rate volatility appears to depress export volume only in the short run according to our estimated error correction model.

Testing for Monetary Policy Convergence in European Countries

The paper tests for long‐run monetary policy convergence and short‐run policy interactions in seven ERM countries over the 1979‐1992 period using the approach of multivariate cointegration and Granger‐causality tests. The authors provide evidence for very little monetary policy convergence, even during the more stable 1987‐92 period. Tests for short‐run monetary policy interactions show that, in agreement with some other studies, Germany is not the leader country in the system as it appears to accommodate shocks in other member countries. The tests show also that full monetary policy convergence applied among Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands in the 1987‐92 period implies that these countries could be the first to join a European monetary union should a two‐speed approach to monetary union become a reality.

Volatility and Irish Exports

We analyse the impact of volatility per se on real exports for a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the UK and the US. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag approach. Rather than adopt a single measure of risk we also adopt a spectrum of risk measures and detail varied size characteristics and statistical properties. We find that the ambiguous results found to date may be due to not taking account of the timing effect which varies substantially depending on which volatility measure is used.