William A. Gould

Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome(1). Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity ov ...

Lidar: shedding new light on habitat characterization and modeling

Ecologists need data on animal–habitat associations in terrestrial and aquatic environments to design and implement effective conservation strategies. Habitat characteristics used in models typically incorporate (1) field data of limited spatial extent and/or (2) remote sensing data that do not characterize the vertical habitat structure. Remote sensing tools that directly characterize three-dimensional (3-D) habitat structure and that provide data relevant to organism–habitat interactions across a hierarchy of scales promise to improve our understanding of animal–habitat relationships. Laser altimetry, commonly called light detection and ranging (lidar), is a source of geospatial data that can provide fine-grained information about the 3-D structure of ecosystems across broad spatial extents. In this review, we present a brief overview of lidar technology, discuss recent applications of lidar data in investigations of animal–habitat relationships, and propose future applications of this technology to issues of broad species-management and conservation interest.

Plant communities and landscape diversity along a Canadian Arctic river

. We analysed the structure and diversity of the vegetation along an Arctic river to determine the relationship between species richness and plant community structure. We examined whether variation in species richness along the corridor is structured as (1) an increase in the number of communities due to increasing landscape heterogeneity, (2) an increase in the floristic distinctiveness (β-diversity) of communities, or (3) an increase in within-community richness (α-diversity) as species-poor communities are replaced by species-rich communities. We described 24 community types and analysed the relationship between site vascular species richness (γ-diversity) and β-diversity, α-diversity, site environmental heterogeneity, and the number of distinct plant communities. We also measured diversity patterns of vascular, bryophyte, and lichen species within communities and examined their relationship to community-level estimates of environmental factors. We found that an increase in site species richness correlated with an increase in the number of communities (r2= 0.323, P= 0.0173) and β-diversity (r2= 0.388, P= 0.0075), rather than an increase in the α-diversity of individual communities. Moisture and pH controlled most of the differences in composition between communities. Measures of species richness and correlations with moisture and pH within communities differed among vascular, bryophyte, and lichen species. Bryophyte richness was positively correlated with moisture (r2= 0.862, P= 0.0010) and lichen richness was negatively correlated with moisture (r2= 0.809, P= 0.0031). Vascular plants had a peak in richness at pH 6.5 (r2= 0.214, P < 0.0001). We conclude that site variation in vascular richness in this region is controlled by landscape heterogeneity, and structured as variation in the number and distinctiveness of recognizable plant communities.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns

Significance Methodological constraints can limit our ability to quantify potential impacts of climate warming. We assessed the consistency of three approaches in estimating warming effects on plant community composition: manipulative warming experiments, repeat sampling under ambient temperature change (monitoring), and space-for-time substitution. The three approaches showed agreement in the direction of change (an increase in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche), but differed in the magnitude of change estimated. Experimental and monitoring approaches were similar in magnitude, whereas space-for-time comparisons indicated a much stronger response. These results suggest that all three approaches are valid, but experimental warming and long-term monitoring are best suited for forecasting impacts over the coming decades. Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning*

The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual cooling degree-days (CDD) were calculated as a proxy index for air-conditioning energy demand, and two measures of annual no-rainfall days were used as drought indices. Holdridge life zone classification was used to map the possible ecological effects of climate change. Precipitation is predicted to declineinbothmodelensembles,butthedecreasewasmoresevereinthe‘‘regionallyconsistent’’models.The precipitation declines cause gradual and linear increases in drought intensity and extremes. The warming from the 1960‐90 period to the 2071‐99 period was 4.68‐98C depending on the global emission scenarios and location.ThiswarmingmaycauseincreasesinCDD,andconsequentlyincreasingenergydemands.Lifezones may shift from wetter to drier zones with the possibility of losing most, if not all, of the subtropical rain forests and extinction risks to rain forest specialists or obligates.

Decay of Aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) Wood in Moist and Dry Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Forest Fragments

Abstract In this study, we set up a wood decomposition experiment to i) quantify the percent of mass remaining, decay constant and performance strength of aspen stakes (Populus tremuloides) in dry and moist boreal (Alaska and Minnesota, USA), temperate (Washington and Idaho, USA), and tropical (Puerto Rico) forest types, and ii) determine the effects of fragmentation on wood decomposition rates as related to fragment size, forest age (and/or structure) and climate at the macro- and meso-scales. Fragment sizes represented the landscape variability within a climatic region. Overall, the mean small fragments area ranged from 10–14 ha, medium-sized fragments 33 to 60 ha, and large fragments 100–240 ha. We found that: i) aspen stakes decayed fastest in the tropical sites, and the slowest in the temperate forest fragments, ii) the percent of mass remaining was significantly greater in dry than in moist forests in boreal and temperate fragments, while the opposite was true for the tropical forest fragments, iii) no effect of fragment size on the percent of mass remaining of aspen stakes in the boreal sites, temperate dry, and tropical moist forests, and iv) no significant differences of aspen wood decay between forest edges and interior forest in boreal, temperate and tropical fragments. We conclude that: i) moisture condition is an important control over wood decomposition over broad climate gradients; and that such relationship can be non linear, and ii) the presence of a particular group of organism (termites) can significantly alter the decay rates of wood more than what might be predicted based on climatic factors alone. Biotic controls on wood decay might be more important predictors of wood decay in tropical regions, while abiotic constraints seems to be important determinants of decay in cold forested fragments.

Scenarios of Biodiversity Changes in Arctic and Alpine Tundra

Arctic and alpine tundra, defined as those areas that lie to the north of the latitudinally or altitudinally controlled limits of tree growth (Gabriel and Talbot 1984), currently occupies approximately 8.3 × 106km2. The tundra biome is characterized by low biomass and species diversity relative to other biomes, and the spatial distribution of species of all groups is strongly structured by physical factors (Chapin and Korner 1995). About 2.3 × 106km2 (28%) of the total is occupied by ice, primarily the continental glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica. The remainder consists of a combination of shrub-dominated tundra (about 25%) and herbaceous-dominated tundra (about 47%). Herbaceous-dominated tundra is usually subdivided by ecologists into true tundra (or alpine tundra in the mountains) and polar desert (which is somewhat analogous to the alpine nival zone). The IMAGE model (Alcamo 1994) upon which this volume is based recognizes shrub tundra (i.e., woody tundra), tundra, and ice.

A Soil Burn Severity Index for Understanding Soil-fire Relations in Tropical Forests

Abstract Methods for evaluating the impact of fires within tropical forests are needed as fires become more frequent and human populations and demands on forests increase. Short- and long-term fire effects on soils are determined by the prefire, fire, and postfire environments. We placed these components within a fire-disturbance continuum to guide our literature synthesis and develop an integrated soil burn severity index. The soil burn severity index provides a set of indicators that reflect the range of conditions present after a fire. The index consists of seven levels, an unburned level and six other levels that describe a range of postfire soil conditions. We view this index as a tool for understanding the effects of fires on the forest floor, with the realization that as new information is gained, the index may be modified as warranted.

Forest Structure and Downed Woody Debris in Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Forest Fragments

Abstract Forest fragmentation affects the heterogeneity of accumulated fuels by increasing the diversity of forest types and by increasing forest edges. This heterogeneity has implications in how we manage fuels, fire, and forests. Understanding the relative importance of fragmentation on woody biomass within a single climatic regime, and along climatic gradients, will improve our ability to manage forest fuels and predict fire behavior. In this study we assessed forest fuel characteristics in stands of differing moisture, i.e., dry and moist forests, structure, i.e., open canopy (typically younger) vs. closed canopy (typically older) stands, and size, i.e., small (10–14 ha), medium (33 to 60 ha), and large (100–240 ha) along a climatic gradient of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests. We measured duff, litter, fine and coarse woody debris, standing dead, and live biomass in a series of plots along a transect from outside the forest edge to the fragment interior. The goal was to determine how forest structure and fuel characteristics varied along this transect and whether this variation differed with temperature, moisture, structure, and fragment size. We found nonlinear relationships of coarse woody debris, fine woody debris, standing dead and live tree biomass with mean annual median temperature. Biomass for these variables was greatest in temperate sites. Forest floor fuels (duff and litter) had a linear relationship with temperature and biomass was greatest in boreal sites. In a five-way multivariate analysis of variance we found that temperature, moisture, and age/structure had significant effects on forest floor fuels, downed woody debris, and live tree biomass. Fragment size had an effect on forest floor fuels and live tree biomass. Distance from forest edge had significant effects for only a few subgroups sampled. With some exceptions edges were not distinguishable from interiors in terms of fuels.

Characterizing Forest Fragments in Boreal, Temperate, and Tropical Ecosystems

Abstract An increased ability to analyze landscapes in a spatial manner through the use of remote sensing leads to improved capabilities for quantifying human-induced forest fragmentation. Developments of spatially explicit methods in landscape analyses are emerging. In this paper, the image delineation software program eCognition and the spatial pattern analysis program FRAGSTATS were used to quantify patterns of forest fragments on six landscapes across three different climatic regions characterized by different moisture regimes and different influences of human pressure. Our results support the idea that landscapes with higher road and population density are more fragmented; however, there are other, equally influential factors contributing to fragmentation, such as moisture regime, historic land use, and fire dynamics. Our method provided an objective means to characterize landscapes and assess patterns of forest fragments across different forested ecosystems by addressing the limitations of pixel-based classification and incorporating image objects.