Donald G. Hodges

An overview of the forest products sector downturn in the United States

In recent years, the forest products industry of the U.S. experienced a downturn in output to levels not seen in decades and employment losses in the hundreds of thousands — for instance, a number ...

Effects of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on the ecology of the Cumberland forests

Model projections suggest that both climate and land-use changes have large effects on forest biomass and composition in the Cumberland forests of Tennessee and Kentucky. These forests have high levels of diversity, ecological importance, land-use changes, and pressures due to invasive herbivorous insects and climate change. Three general circulation models project warming for all months in 2030 and 2080 and complex patterns of precipitation change. Climate changes from 1980 to 2100 were developed from these projections and used in the forest ecosystem model LINKAGES to estimate transient changes in forest biomass and species composition over time. These projections show that climate changes can instigate a decline in forest stand biomass and then recovery as forest species composition shifts. In addition, a landscape model (LSCAP) estimates changes in land-cover types of the Cumberlands based on projected land-use changes and the demise of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carriere) due to the sprea...

Understanding the Characteristics of Non-industrial Private Forest Landowners Who Harvest Trees

Abstract Achieving regional and national goals of renewable energy production will depend on sufficient supply of biomass from private forests, the majority of which are controlled by non-industrial private forest landowners (NIPF). Considering the diversity in management objectives and changing demographic dynamics in this ownership group, it is important to understand the characteristics of landowners that may supply woody biomass. This study developed linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and classification tree (CT) models to examine the characteristics and motivation of such NIPF landowners. Thirteen combinations of CT variable selection and split-point selection models were used in conjunction with LDA. The “importance of income” from a woody biomass harvest was the most important factor influencing NIPF landowners’ decisions in supplying woody biomass. Another significant interrelated variable was “farmer or non-farmer” forestland ownership, which was also related with “years of residency”, “availability of a multi-management plan,” and “ownership of multi-tracts of land.” CT models provided higher-level explanatory information when compared with LDA models. Study findings provide useful insight for land managers, wood procurement managers, and policy-makers in identifying the landowner groups with interest in biomass supply, and in understanding the factors influencing their decisions.

Potential effects of climate on downhill skiing and snowboarding demand and value at U.S

Annually, 23 million recreationists participate in downhill skiing on over 180,000 acres of skiable land in the U.S. National Forest system, making it the second most popular outdoor activity in the system. While the emerging literature on climate science reveals changing climatic conditions in ski areas, the extent of climate change impact on the demand for and economic value of downhill skiing is unknown. By combining trip data collected from on-site surveys of skiers in national forests across the nation with climatic data collected through nearby weather stations, this study developed an aggregated travel cost model to estimate the net economic benefit of downhill skiing and snowboarding, and the projected impact of climate change on the demand and value. Per person per trip net economic benefit of downhill skiing was estimated to be in the range of

Meta-Analysis of Price Responsiveness of Timber Supply

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Paying for What You Get: Accounting for the Nonrenewable Component in Wood to Energy

185 depending on the assumptions about skiers’ opportunity cost of time. When aggregated across visits and national forests, the total economic value of downhill skiing in the U.S. National Forest system ranged from

Sawmill Industry in Tennessee: Assessing Location Pattern Changes and Their Effects on Sawlog Procurement Distribution

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Prospects of wood-based energy alternatives in revitalizing the economy impacted by decline in pulp and paper industry

4.39 billion, annually. Climate variables including temperature, snow depth, and rainfall were correlated with ski demand, and projected changes in these climate variables could affect the economic benefits from skiing. Findings contribute to understanding the net economic benefit of maintaining downhill skiing on national forests, and will help recreation planners and tourism entrepreneurs develop adaptive strategies to sustain the skiing industry. Subscribe to JPRA

Assessing the pre-REDD policies of countries with substantial forest area growth

Abstract Modeling and projecting timber supply requires a good understanding of how supply responds to price. The price elasticity of supply (PELS) reported in the literature varies greatly, indicating that conclusions regarding price signaling in the timber market are mixed. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine the key factors associated with the heterogeneity of PELS of primary timber product supply by examining data from numerous studies conducted around the world. Twelve “moderator” variables were examined to explore differences in PELS. Moderators with significant impacts on variation of PELS included forest products, geographic regions, econometric models, and data type. Furthermore, two-level categorical variables contained within the econometric models including standing stock were found to have significant influence on the heterogeneity of PELS. Variation in PELS also depended on whether or not the supply models accounted for price inflation, and the time period when the study was...

Assessing Present Biological Information for Valuating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Softwood Stumpage Supply in the South

Abstract Growing international trade in wood pellets is one response to regional efforts to mitigate the global problem of climate change. With this growing use of wood energy, there is increased scrutiny of the associated environmental impacts and concern over possible unintended consequences (e.g., nonrenewable energy inputs) that may detract from the carbon savings provided by such renewable energy sources. The focus of this article is to present an accounting system for the embodied fossil fuels in wood energy systems. This system is based on life-cycle assessment methodology and could accommodate fairly the variability in fossil fuel inputs for various bioenergy systems. Such a system could be incorporated into biofuel subsidies or carbon taxation policies. We use three scenarios as examples to illustrate (1) that wood-to-energy systems entail the use of fossil fuels and that the amount of this “embodied fossil carbon” varies with the processing inputs and transportation required and (2) that carbon ...